BSU comes to town

So, from the smoldering ruins, the schedule goes on.

BG MBB has Ball State Saturday at the Stroh.  Already struggling, the program might have had its worst week since the end of Chris Jans.  You have a catastrophic performance and then dismiss your second and third-leading scorers from the team and now you're back to playing.

The Cardinals were picked #8 in the MAC in the pre-season. They had an unremarkable pre-season and played BG in the opener in Muncie on New Year's Day. This was one of those games that BG lost that they should have won.  BG led most of the way and led by 6 with :43 left. From there....

BSU got a basket to cut it to 4 and then Samari Curtis was fouled with :31.  He hits the first FT to make it 5. He misses the second one.  Bumbalough was fouled on a 3FG and made two of the 3 to get it to 3.  He missed the last one, but Miryne Thomas got the rebound and put it back to cut the lead to 1 with :23 to play.  Before BSU needed to foul they turned Gordon over and then Thomas hit another to put BSU up 1.  BG missed a buzzer beater and BSU had the win.

Out of the 4,756 games in D1 this year, it is #51 in terms of comebacks.

Since then, Ball State has had an unremarkable season.  Their highlight was beating UT in Muncie, but they have lost 4 of their last 5. They are 6-8 in MAC play.  Much like Bowling Green, they have generally beaten the lower teams in the MAC and lost to the better ones...the UT game as an exception and they lost their last one, a home game against NIU on Tuesday.

For the season, Ball State is #6 on offense and on defense.  As we all know, BG is dead last in defense and has fallen to #5 in offense. In fact, our attack is comparable to Ball State's whereas our defense is way worse.

When the Cardinals have the ball, you have a decent shooting team against the easiest team to shoot against in the MAC.  They are #6 on 3FG and #5 on 2FG, whereas BG is terrible defending the 2FG and poor defending the 3FG.  They do turn it over, but BG does not force turnovers.  The Cardinals do get to the line but they are #10 in the MAC at making FTs.  They take a typical number of 3FGs.

When the Falcons have the ball, it should be pretty evenly matched.  What we have done is what they allow.

Their leading scorer is Payton Sparks at 16.3 PPG.  He shoots almost all 2FGs and makes 58% which is pretty good.  He's a FR and a good bet for the All-Freshman team.  He also averages 10.3 RPG.  He leads the MAC in drawing fouls/40 minutes and is #2 on the offensive boards.  He had 20 points and 9 rebounds in the first game, making 7 of 10 from the field.

Tyler Cochran is scoring 13.5 PPG and 5.7 RPG.  He shoots 47% from 2FG and 34% from 3FG.  He is a transfer from NIU.

Miryne Thomas is scoring 12.3 PPG.  He's a good shooter from both 2FG and 3FG...he is top 25 in the MAC in both.  He also averages 5.8 RPG.  He only scored 8 in the first game but had 14 rebounds.

Finally, Luke Bumbalough scored 11.1 PPG.  He's a 3FG specialist and makes 36% of those shots.  He plays heavy minutes.  He has 21 points and 4 assists in the first meeting.

Ball State relies on their starters...they get only 27% of their minutes from the bench.

So, look.  Who knows what we are going to see?  These things can sometimes go right and sometimes go wrong.  This doesn't feel right to me, but we shall see.