San Jose Preview

So, next up is the San Jose State Spartans....this, actually, is the second of three times in 8 days that BG will play a team known as the Spartans, which is a school record.  (A fact I made up right now.)

BG played out there last year so Ish Ali could play near family and BG lost by one point.  Since then, the program had a serious issue when their Coach resigned for family reasons over the summer and they were forced to make a change at a difficult time.  They hired former Colorado assistant Jean Prioleaou, who sounds like a guy who played for the Habs.

Then, in August, their top player Brandon Clarke, announced he was transferring to Gonzaga.  Clarke was all-MWC first team and defensive team last season.

They are not off to a great start.  They were picked to finish 9th in the MWC, and are 2-3 so far.  That's a win over Antelope Valley and #321 Idaho State, with losses to San Diego (153), @Southern Utah (329) and St. Mary's (35).  Right now, their kenpom is 302.

This is a team that is really struggling to score.  That .95 ppp you see below is among the 30 worst in the country so far.  BG's defense has certainly been suspect as well, ranked #220.  (The average ppp so far in D1 games in 1.03.)  Flipping this around, BG is below average on offense (not that the Lake Erie game is not included here) but San Jose State's defense is almost exactly where BG's is.

There's no huge surprise why they struggle to score.  They rank #299 in shooting % and #328 (out of 351) in turnovers.  When you give the ball away and shoot poorly, it is very hard to score.  They are focused on 2FGs...only 4 teams have taken fewer 3s as a % of overall shots.  They make only 46% of them, which is like an extreme Louis Orr set up.  Now, they have made rebounding a priority (according to Blue Ribbon) and it is much improved.  That's a strong offensive rebounding number and when you get the boards, you usually get to the line.  They only shoot 69% from the line, which is slightly below average.

With this flipped around, we see that they aren't that good on defense either.  They allow 53% shooting on their 2 FGs and don't force very many turnovers.  They are 2nd in the nation on their own defensive boards and teams don't get to the line very much against them, so those things work in their favor.  BG has taken excellent care of the ball this year, so you'd expect that to continue.  The lack of turnovers and the strong defensive rebounding would indicate a packed-in defense, but teams are only making 36% of their 3FGs against San Jose State, which is slightly above average.

They have a really quality F in Ryan Welage.  He's 6'9" and a junior, and is scoring 19.6 per game on 54% shooting and 81% from the FT line to go with 4.6 RPG.  Jaycee Hillsman is a 6'6" JR who is actually symptomatic of the problem, scoring 10.8 PPG on 39% shooting.  Those are their only two double figure scorers.  Isaiah Nichols is actually their leading rebounds, and he's 6'5".  He also leads them with a little over 3 assists per game.

They do have some height, with 3 guys over 6'10", but none of them get really significant minutes.

They don't have any players from Northwest Ohio, but they do have multiple players from Indiana and Illinois, so I'd expect some family members there Wednesday, which can adjust the dynamic.