25 Questions to throw the record book out
What is their body of work?
How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?
Who are their statistical leaders?
Diontae Johnson is #4 in all purpose yards, #15 in combined return yards, #12 in kickoff returns, #8 in receiving yards, #9 in receiving TDs,
Reggie Giliam is #2 in blocked kicks
Jameson Vest is #12 in FG%, #2 in FG/G
Logan Woodside is #5 in passing efficiency, #13 in passing yards, #7 in yards per completion
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi is #19 in TFL
What is their turnover ratio?
Unless noted, all stats are MAC Only below. They are +6.
What is their scoring and yards per play?
They are #4 in scoring and #1 in yards per play. They get 7.2 yards per play and the second team gets 6.3. (BG's defense is 11th in both).
Can they run the ball?
They are second in the MAC at 5.4 yards per rush. BG is 11th on defense.
Do they pass the ball?
See above. They lead the MAC in passing efficiency and it isn't close. You can also see Diontae Johnson above, but they also have Jon'Vea Johnson at 14.9 per catch and Cody Thompson at 19.2.
How was their run/pass balance?
They run on 52% of their plays.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
So, you saw the gap between yards and scoring. They should have more points based on the yard production. That's partly because they are 11th on 3rd down.
Do they score in the red zone?
They are also poor in the red zone at 3.9 points per trip.
Do they protect the quarterback?
They give up sacks on 6% of their attempts, which is about average, especially considering the relatively long routes they throw.
Defense:
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
Unlike previous UT teams that came up short, this team is strong on both sides of the ball. They are #3 in scoring defense and #4 in yards per play allowed.
Do they defend the run effectively?
This is an opportunity for BG. They are #8 in yards per carry allowed.
Can they be passed on?
Not easily. They are #2 in pass efficiency defense. They allow 53% completions, 10.8 per completion, 7 TDs and 8 INTs, great numbers all down the line.
Do they get off the field on 3rd down?
They are 6th in 3rd down defense.
Do they defend in the red zone?
First, they have allowed only 13 red zone trips, which is best in the MAC. When teams do get there, they score at 5.3 per trip, which is not good for the defense.
Did they pressure the QB?
Not very. They get sacks on 4.1% of opponent attempts.
Special Teams:
Punting?
They are 11th in the MAC in net punting. Their return defense is good, it appears to be a length of punt thing. He's been blocked once and no TDs allowed.
Punt Return?
See above, they lead the MAC with 13 yards per return, which is 5 yards more than the next team. They have 1 TD and 2 blocks.
Placekicking?
Vest is just money. 20-23 with a 49 long. 3/4 over 40.
Kickoff?
They are 7th with teams starting at the 25-26.
Kickoff Return?
They are #3 in kickoff returns.
Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
So John Wagner asked a good question this week. What happened to the rivalry? My answer was that BG quit winning...he claims that it starting to go down before that, which is not how I remember it. Also, I think that having BG and UT in separate divisions also hurt the rivalry. It is possible (thank god) for BG to win a MAC title without beating UT.
Simply put, this would be one of the biggest upsets in the history of the rivalry if it happened. BG did lead last year in the 4th Quarter, but ultimately lost. UT would be a huge favorite under ordinary circumstances, but then factor in BG's lack of health on the o-line and then the fact the UT needs a win and is coming off a bad loss and it has a really tough look to it.
And yet, such things happen. This is why we love sports.
BG's opening is the UT run defense. BG simply has to run the ball effectively and use the clock to have a shot. Coach says we are "so close" to having a top tier offense...well, this is where it is going to have to show up. If the BG defense is left on the field most of the night, this is going to be a rout.
That's just based on the way Buffalo moved the ball on our defense and these guys are way better than that. Now, the defense might well rally for the big game, but they have shown us no reason to think that they are capable of slowing down this Rocket attack. The offense is going to be need to help out and BG needs to get some breaks on top of it.
By far the most likely outcome will be that the streak continues. I will say this. A win and Coach Jinks can count on silencing the doubters for a while. A blow out? Well, the fan base tends to react pretty poorly to those, especially in this game. If that happens, the overall ecosystem just grows more toxic.
They are #4 in scoring and #1 in yards per play. They get 7.2 yards per play and the second team gets 6.3. (BG's defense is 11th in both).
Can they run the ball?
They are second in the MAC at 5.4 yards per rush. BG is 11th on defense.
Do they pass the ball?
See above. They lead the MAC in passing efficiency and it isn't close. You can also see Diontae Johnson above, but they also have Jon'Vea Johnson at 14.9 per catch and Cody Thompson at 19.2.
How was their run/pass balance?
They run on 52% of their plays.
Do they convert on 3rd Down?
So, you saw the gap between yards and scoring. They should have more points based on the yard production. That's partly because they are 11th on 3rd down.
Do they score in the red zone?
They give up sacks on 6% of their attempts, which is about average, especially considering the relatively long routes they throw.
Topline: Scoring and yards per play.
Do they defend the run effectively?
This is an opportunity for BG. They are #8 in yards per carry allowed.
Can they be passed on?
Not easily. They are #2 in pass efficiency defense. They allow 53% completions, 10.8 per completion, 7 TDs and 8 INTs, great numbers all down the line.
Do they defend in the red zone?
First, they have allowed only 13 red zone trips, which is best in the MAC. When teams do get there, they score at 5.3 per trip, which is not good for the defense.
Not very. They get sacks on 4.1% of opponent attempts.
Special Teams:
They are 11th in the MAC in net punting. Their return defense is good, it appears to be a length of punt thing. He's been blocked once and no TDs allowed.
See above, they lead the MAC with 13 yards per return, which is 5 yards more than the next team. They have 1 TD and 2 blocks.
Placekicking?
Vest is just money. 20-23 with a 49 long. 3/4 over 40.
Kickoff?
They are 7th with teams starting at the 25-26.
Kickoff Return?
They are #3 in kickoff returns.
And yet, such things happen. This is why we love sports.
BG's opening is the UT run defense. BG simply has to run the ball effectively and use the clock to have a shot. Coach says we are "so close" to having a top tier offense...well, this is where it is going to have to show up. If the BG defense is left on the field most of the night, this is going to be a rout.
That's just based on the way Buffalo moved the ball on our defense and these guys are way better than that. Now, the defense might well rally for the big game, but they have shown us no reason to think that they are capable of slowing down this Rocket attack. The offense is going to be need to help out and BG needs to get some breaks on top of it.
By far the most likely outcome will be that the streak continues. I will say this. A win and Coach Jinks can count on silencing the doubters for a while. A blow out? Well, the fan base tends to react pretty poorly to those, especially in this game. If that happens, the overall ecosystem just grows more toxic.
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