Monday, November 20, 2017

25 questions to finish at the Factory

What is their body of work?

They are 4-7 on the year, but that's far from the whole story.  First, one of those wins was over Rutgers, which plays in the Big Ten.  They lost to Western, Ohio and Northern in OT...as in, lost in OT in all 3 games.  Let us say that BG did not fare that well against the last two.  They lost to Toledo by 5.  Need I say more?  There was Kentucky by four, Army by 1.  This is a team that can do everything but get over the hump.  That includes beating bad teams.  They have won 2 of their last 3, beating Ball State and Miami.


How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

They are pretty experienced, with This is a young team, with 28 upperclassmen on the two deep.  They have 10 sophomores on the two deep.

Who are their statistical leaders?

Roback is #17 in completions per game.
Maxx Crosby is #5 in sacks

What is their turnover ratio?

Unless noted, all stats are MAC Only below.  They are -4, same as BG.

Offense:


How is their QB play?

He's good.  He's one of the best they have ever had.  He is #4 in passing efficiency.  He has 59% completions for 11.6 yards per completion, which is good but not overwhelming.  He has 12 TDs and a propensity to get picked with 12.

What is their scoring and yards per play?

They are 8th in scoring offense and tied for 7th in yards per play.  BG is #7 in scoring offense and tied with them in yards per play.

Can they run the ball?

Traditionally, this is a strength, but they are #9 in yards per carry.  After the UT game, this should be a relief for BG, but then again if we see the Eagles running wild, we'll know that's a bad sign.

Do they pass the ball?

They are 9th in pass efficiency.  Their stud receiver is Sergio Bailey II, who with 50 catches at 16.8 per.

How was their run/pass balance?

They run on 47% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

They are 11th at 32%

Do they score in the red zone?


They are average at 4.3 points per trip.

Do they protect the quarterback?

Bad sign.  They are very good and BG are last in sacks.  EMU allows sacks on only 2.9% of its attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They are #7 in scoring defense and 6th in yards per play allowed.  Where they are equal to BG in offense, they are much better of defense, even if they are not great.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are pretty good, #4 in yards per carry allowed.

Can they be passed on?

They are relatively easy to pass on.  They are 10th in pass defense efficiency.  They play some youth in the secondary, and allow 63% completions (11th) at 12.2 YPC and 11 TDs and 2 INT.  This is a time for Jarrett Doege to have a coming out party.  His numbers are stronger than you think and BG's offense is coming together.  Here's a chance to plant the flag for next year.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are very good on 3rd down, #4 in the MAC.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are not bad at 4.8 points per trip.

Did they pressure the QB?

Big worry here.  They get sacks on 8.9% of their opponent's passing attempts, which is high.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 7th in net punting.  The issues are on distance, not returns.  And they've been blocked twice.

Punt Return?

They get about 5 yards per return.  One block.

Placekicking?

He's pretty average, 13 out of 19, blocked twice, long of 46. (All games)

Kickoff?

They are 4th with a 26 yardline start.  Actual returns are just 16 yards per, which is good.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 24 (all games)

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

So Dave Clawson used to say that a game like this is about who loves football.  Neither team has anything to play for.  Neither will play another game.  I don't expect this to impact the game, actually.  BG's guys are playing hard and I think that EMU is, too.  I expect a competitive game.

Doesn't seem to be a line, but EMU appears to be a favorite.  ESPN's thing shows an 84% likelihood of victory.

Be that as it may, I think we need to understand the our average offensive numbers are largely influenced by the non-Doege games.  He's putting some good numbers up and I think we're better on offense than they are.  This should at least be a competitive game and how nice would be it to at least get this one?




1 comment :

Schadenfreude said...

Excellent clip art.