Friday, September 04, 2015

25 Questions from Rocky Top

 What is their body of work?

This has been a historic down period for the Vols.  Of course, Lane Kiffin.  Anyway, their last game with more than 7 wins was 2007.  They have had losing seasons in 3 of the last four years.

Mental note: Protect the jewels
around this little lady.
How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

This is a very young team.  They have only 21 upperclassmen on the two-deep and  only 8 seniors.  Coach Jones says they could play 22 freshmen on Saturday.

Who are their returning statistical leaders?

Cameron Sutton was #11 in FBS as a punt returner.
DL Derek Barnett was #6 in TFL and #20 in sacks.

What was their turnover ratio?

They were +2 last season.

Offense:

 How is their QB play expected to be?

I expect it to be very good.  The young man's name is Joshua Dobbs, and he's a JR.  In only 6 games last year had a QB rating of 130.5, completing 63% of his passes.  That's on an average of 10.8 per completion, which is pretty short range.  He had 9 TDs/6 INT.  Despite the limited action, he was the team's second leading rusher, at 469 net yards and a 4.5 yard average.  He had about 17 carries per game.

What was their scoring and yards per play?

They struggled on offense a little bit last year, at 28.9 points per game and only 4.9 yards per play.  However, the line was very young last year and I think the Vols would expect to be much more productive this year.

Can they run the ball?
The scariest picture I could show a Vols fan


Their leading rusher, Jalen Hurd is back.  He averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year (which is OK but not great) and should benefit from a stronger line and Dobbs.  They did lose a projected starter at G to injury.  Also, their backup TB is Alvin Kamara who was the #3 player coming out of JUCO and originally signed with Alabama.

Did they pass the ball?

They certainly represented last year, with efficiency ranked #70 in FBS.  They had expected to have a very strong receiving corps, but they have a suspension and a couple of injuries and now it moves a little more into the question mark category.

How was their run/pass balance?

Last year they ran on 54% of their downs, which is a pretty run-focused attack in today's game.

Did they convert on 3rd Down?

They were relatively poor last year at 39%.

Did they score in the red zone?

Very effective.  They scored on 93% of their red zone trips and averaged 5.2 points per trip.

Unless it is this.
Did they protect the quarterback?

No.  They gave up 43 sacks on a limited passing attack.  That's 8.6% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.


Last year they played solid defense at 24 PPG which is the #35 in FBS.  They allowed 5.3 yard per play, which is in the neighborhood of average.

Did they defend the run effectively?

They were very good (4.3 ypc) last year and Phil Steele projects them to improve as players mature. Derek Barnett was 2nd team All Sec as a true freshman.

Could they be passed on?

Last year they were excellent on this measure.  They were 24th in the nation in defensive pass efficiency and bring back a strong secondary.  This will be a test for the BG receivers.

Did they get off the field on 3rd down?
FalconFast tuckered him out.

They were excellent last year at 34% and that's 2nd in the SEC.

Did they defend in the red zone?

This accounts for the disparity between points per game and yards per play.  They allowed a score on 94% of possessions and 5.9 points per trip.

Did they pressure the QB?

They had sacks on 8.5% of their passing attempts, which is good.

Special Teams:

Punting?


Their main punter from last year graduated.  No real idea what to expect, except that SEC teams usually have good specialists.

Putting World's Fair and Knoxville in
the same sentence is just wrong
Punt Return?

As mentioned, Cameron Sutton was one of the best in the country.  He averaged over 11.5 yards per return and scored once.  No blocks.

Placekicking?

Aaron Medley is back.  He was 20 of 26 last year and 19 or 20 inside 40.  Outside 40 he was only 1-6 with a 46 yard long.  No blocks.

Kickoff?

They were pretty strong on kick coverage.  They had only 17 TBs but teams started on the 24.  They did not allow a TD or a return over 41 yards.

Kickoff Return?

Evan Berry is back and he was a beast at 29 yards per return.  Hoping Farinella can get the ball into the end zone.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.
This is Rocky Top.
Good ol' Rocky Top.


First, the game will have almost all Tennessee fans there, but will not be in a familiar environment, which mutes the home field advantage a little bit.

Butch Jones coaches the Vols and they seem to be on the road up.  They are still very young, though not as young as last year.  This is a Top 25 team right now and by projection and they are obviously prohibitive favorites.  Having said that, Tennessee is starting the season young and not healthy, and if BG is clicking on offense and gets a  break here and there they could be dangerous.  BG hasn't beaten a ranked team in 7 seasons, but it does happen.  Coach says this is the best team we have played, including the Wisconsin team that humiliated the Falcons last year.  Even acknowledging the odds, I think this matchup is better for BG and I hope we are better on offense...and we couldn't be any worse on defense than we were in Madison.  I honestly would not be surprised if this game is competitive and I would be surprised if we repeated the debacle at Camp Randall.

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