OU-Buffalo....WHA Happen?

So, for quite a while we have been pointing to Tuesday's game against OU as the game which would determine the East champion.  Coming into Buffalo game, OU seemed to be rolling.  They had clubbed EMU and Miami, smoked an underrated Akron team.  They had only 2 losses and one of those was to Louisville.

Meanwhile, you were starting to sense that Buffalo might be better than expected, but this was also a team that took 5 OT to beat Stony Brook and was 4-0 in MAC play, but those were over EMU, WMU, UMass, and Kent...so there was no real impressive victory in there.  So, I thought Buffalo might have a shot at OU but I didn't think they would win 30-3.  And you didn't either.

The game was only 7-3 Buffalo at halftime.  Early in the 3rd, OU was victimized by what might well be the worst call I've ever seen in a college football game.  Tettleton was called for intentional grounding in the end zone--a safety--but was, in fact, on the FOUR YARD LINE and right in front of the referee when he committed the foul.

The MAC has issued a statement admitting two mistakes which were unfavorable to OU, the other a fumble in the first half. On the safety, the referee claimed he was looking downfield when the pass was thrown--which is not what he was supposed to be doing and not what he appears to be doing--and he saw Tettleton lying in the end zone and assumed the penalty took place in the end zone.  As you can see, he was behind Tettleton and he wasn't even in the end zone.

Officials make a lot of tough calls under the non-human scrutiny of instant replay and sometimes that isn't fair.  This is not that case.

Buffalo was now up 9-3, took the free kick and marched it in to go up 16-3 and from there the rout was on as the Bulls scored and scored.

Solich said--and he's right--that the game did not come down to one play.  Braden Oliver ran the ball 34 times for 249 yards--an effort right out of the 1970s--and Buffalo scored 31 points while completing 13 passes.  Meanwhile, OU got no rushing game at all and Tettleton was 14 of 31 passing for only 126 yards...a QB rating of 15.

It changes the dynamic big time.  First, it casts huge doubt on OU...and they were looking pretty good.  From a Falcon perspective, you have to wonder which OU team will show up Tuesday.  Will it be the OU we thought we had, looking to rewrite this debacle--or will it be an OU team fading late, as they have sometimes done.

Second, it makes the BG-Buffalo game potentially of huge importance the day after Thanksgiving.  Buffalo has followed the trend and moved the game off-campus, something I suspect they will regret if the whole thing does come down to that game.

Buffalo has zero conference losses, but plays Toledo next week.  They don't need that game, so long as they beat BG, but it will be a good chance to see if they can sustain what they showed on Tuesday.

If BG wins out, they would win the East, and Buffalo can win only beating Miami and BG.

The more interesting scenario would come with BG losing to OU and beating EMU and Buffalo, Buffalo losing to UT and BG and OU beating BG, Kent and UMass, leaving all 3 teams with 2 losses.

The head to head is even and all the teams lost to each other in division and their other loss would be outside division, so that tie breaker is even too.  This takes us to the third tiebreaker, which is the winning percentage of your crossover opponents.  This involves UT, EMU, CMU, and WMU, some of whom play each other, but if things play out as expected, BG would probably win this tie-breaker.  Hat tip to Bull Run for doing the heavy lifting here and I welcome anyone who thinks this is figured wrong.

So, if your question was "Can BG win the East without beating OU" the answer is yes.  I think.