Men's Basketball Preview

Expectations could not be lower for the BGSU men’s basketball team. I do not recall any season where there was less optimism about this program. I could go into the reasons with a long post, but I don’t think that’s necessary. You know all this. BG lost its two leading scorers on a team that struggled to score anyway. BG lost its main ball handler and the next guy up is someone who has shown a propensity for making big plays but not for consistent and efficient game management. The team lacks a proven outside scoring threat. Finally, the team is under a malaise in which most people assume that the Coach is a lame duck in his final season.

That’s ground we have been over.

So, this post is going to talk about what it would take for this team to be competitive...say, a .500 team. None of the things I list are impossible, whether they can all happen, that’s another matter.

Two things. When you evaluate someone solely on limited game minutes, you might not be seeing what you think you. You might be, but you might not. We don’t see these guys practice.

Second, these are young men. They don’t develop at the same rate. Someone can leave last season as a player of one ability and show up the next year significantly improved. I don’t think it is that common, but it can happen.

So, here is what BG needs to be able to compete this year...in my view, in order of importance.

1. BG has to replace Calhoun’s paint scoring.

BG had enough struggles scoring from the outside against defenses packed in on Calhoun. If they don’t have to pack in, things are going to be tough. For that to happen, two people need to produce. The first, obviously, is Richaun Holmes. He was a good player in a supporting role last year and shows good ability to score around the rim. The question is when defenses are focusing on him like they did on Calhoun, will he be able to get shots off. He is not as physically imposing as Calhoun--at least the last time we saw him--so this will become the key challenge. In a related challenge...Calhoun shot 78% from the line last year and Holmes shot 62%. Richaun will either need to improve that or find himself spending a lot of days at the line.

The other thing is Cam Black. Cam Black reminds me of Josh Almanson in a way...has ability just doesn’t seem to be able to produce on a consistent basis. Black is a well-established good defender and has shown a soft touch around the rim. This is his senior year. For BG to compete, he will need to be as productive as the hints we have seen...which Almanson certainly did in his senior year.

2. BG needs reliable point guard play

Regardless of where you were on Crawford, he took and made shots when no one else seemed to be willing to. BG relied on him a lot. The question is, can Jehvon Clarke fill that role? You’d have to guess he wasn’t that close last year, given the 12 minutes a game he averaged. He has made some show-stopping moves to the basket, that cannot be denied. However, adjusted to playing time, his turnovers per minutes played is higher than Crawford’s and his assists per minutes are lower and he shot 32% last year. Now, those are sparse minutes and maybe he has improved. My only point is that we haven’t seen it yet and he’s going to need to develop in order to provide BG the PG play it needs. He has the potential to create his own shots and his size isn’t a liability, so there are upsides.

3. BG needs someone who can make shots from the outside.

As mentioned, even with defenses gang tackling Calhoun, BG’s perimeter shooting was poor. With BG’s offensive mix (294th in D1 in 3FGM and 303rd in percentage of points scored on threes), BG needs just brilliant inside shooting to succeed. Noting question marks above, BG is going to have to get some outside shooting. Chauncey Orr shot reliably at times, but the two most likely returning players--Clarke and Anthony Henderson--shot 30% and 27% respectively from beyond the arc. If BG is going to exceed expectations, someone will need to emerge as an outside threat, and it could be one of the freshman, too.

4. BG needs to at least play defense at least year’s level

Last year in MAC games, BG was 2nd in points per possession allowed and 4th in points allowed overall. With the loss of Calhoun, Crawford and Kraus, BG is going to need to play as solid defense as it did last year. Anything less and the bar just gets higher.

A few other things. I haven’t mentioned Craig Sealey and Spencer Parker, both of whom showed flashes of ability but have not gotten the opportunity to make a significant contribution. And, for being where we are, I think we have good freshman coming in. It can be tough for freshmen to make a big impact, but it does happen.

That’s how I see it. BG’s last single digit win season was Dakich’s 2nd to last year and before that you have to go back to Weinert’s last year. It is not out of the realm of possibility for this season. To get to where the team was last year, at least some of those things have to happen. BG is further hampered by playing the East division and playing Toledo twice. The East is not as good as it has been but most of the good teams are still in the East.

Nothing would make me happier than to have this all be overly pessimistic, so let’s move forward in that spirit.