2012-13 Men's Basketball Preview: State of the Program
I think everyone would pretty much agree about where things start for the men's basketball program.
You can look back at the posts at the end of last season, but basically we had thought for a long time that 11-12 was going to be our year. Coach Orr would have all his own players, three seniors, some spacing in the classes, the wreckage of the Dakich years and transition gone, and playing in our new facility...that was what we pointed toward.
It wasn't what we hoped. The team was 16-16 overall, 9-7 in the MAC and a sad loss to CMU at home in the MAC tourney to wrap the season up--not including a "post-season" berth in one of college basketball's Class B tourneys. Just to pile on a little, there is a clear hierarchy in the MAC--there are 3 premier programs: Akron, Kent and OU--and 9 teams trying to break in. We're not in.
Coach Orr has two more years left on his contract. A lot of people in the nation are talking coaching change. I think Coach Orr is a good man, a good leader, and I think he does a good job of ensuring his team is a good representative of BGSU. The only thing he is lacking is success on the court. (And that is not to discount the regular season title he did win).
The best path for everyone involved is for Coach Orr to develop a winner. There is a school of thought that you can't count anything until he has been able to recruit to the Stroh--a school I don't subscribe to--but either way, you have to think that some kind of success has to be shown in the next two seasons.
The difficulty is that based on what we have seen, there is no reason to think this year's team will be better than last year's team. And if that plays itself out, you're left with a sub .500 team heading into the final year of a contract, not really extension territory but if you don't its lame duck territory.
Which means this year is important.
Now, I said "based on what we have seen." There has been a whole summer and these are young men--it is very possible some or all of them have made significant jumps. That has not been a hallmark of the Orr regime, but it could happen. Point is, we need something to happen that we haven't seen yet--there are no clear understudies obviously reading for a starring role.
Here are the questions BG will need to answer this season:
Who among the cast of supporting players is ready to step up? Names like Clarke, Orr, Sealey, and Henderson--is any of them ready to step up and become a consistent playmaker. They all showed flashes--Clarke and Sealey especially--but it is a long way from there to Scott Thomas like production.
Sealey is a special wild card. He has shown real ability from time to time, and yet he rarely saw the floor, averaging only 12 minutes for a .500 team. There has to be a reason for that. At his best, I think he presents match up problems for defenses.
Will Jordan Crawford's game improve in his senior year? Can he make the players listed above better on a nightly basis?
What kind of production will the team get from Cam Black? Can he take some of the pressure off Calhoun?
For that matter, what kind of player will Calhoun be? He was certainly good last year, but there is still room for him to improve and become a more consistent player, especially when he is in a crowd.
Finally, our new guys, Spencer Parker and Richaun Holmes, are both question marks. Neither is just out of HS. New guys don't tend to get much run in Orr's system, but could one of them at least play the role Oglesby did last year and the year before?
As a team, one question mark I would pose is whether the team will develop another way to score. We were 9th in the nation on points scored on FGs, but among the worst in 3FG and drawing fouls and getting to the line. It just seems logical to me that you would want another way to get that done. I'm fine if it is FTs--we were 327th in D1 in % of points coming from free throws--but it just seems like we need something else.
Last year's team played some of the best defense in the Orr era. It was nearly all zone, but the ability to continue that would certainly make a big difference. And here, you have basically the same question marks--how will the new players fit into the overall system and contribute, and will Cam Black be healthy enough to anchor the defense around the rim and allow the other players in the zone to cover the perimeter.
All that to say that I have a relatively low degree of optimism for this season, until proven otherwise. This team could easily finish with single digit wins. Or, I can see that before I see this team winning 20 games.
The larger question is whether the assemblage of players we have here are prepared to move into the upper tier of the conference. Right now, it would appear to be relatively impenetrable to us, but perhaps we will be surprised by what we see.
Now, I said "based on what we have seen." There has been a whole summer and these are young men--it is very possible some or all of them have made significant jumps. That has not been a hallmark of the Orr regime, but it could happen. Point is, we need something to happen that we haven't seen yet--there are no clear understudies obviously reading for a starring role.
Here are the questions BG will need to answer this season:
Who among the cast of supporting players is ready to step up? Names like Clarke, Orr, Sealey, and Henderson--is any of them ready to step up and become a consistent playmaker. They all showed flashes--Clarke and Sealey especially--but it is a long way from there to Scott Thomas like production.
Sealey is a special wild card. He has shown real ability from time to time, and yet he rarely saw the floor, averaging only 12 minutes for a .500 team. There has to be a reason for that. At his best, I think he presents match up problems for defenses.
Will Jordan Crawford's game improve in his senior year? Can he make the players listed above better on a nightly basis?
What kind of production will the team get from Cam Black? Can he take some of the pressure off Calhoun?
For that matter, what kind of player will Calhoun be? He was certainly good last year, but there is still room for him to improve and become a more consistent player, especially when he is in a crowd.
Finally, our new guys, Spencer Parker and Richaun Holmes, are both question marks. Neither is just out of HS. New guys don't tend to get much run in Orr's system, but could one of them at least play the role Oglesby did last year and the year before?
As a team, one question mark I would pose is whether the team will develop another way to score. We were 9th in the nation on points scored on FGs, but among the worst in 3FG and drawing fouls and getting to the line. It just seems logical to me that you would want another way to get that done. I'm fine if it is FTs--we were 327th in D1 in % of points coming from free throws--but it just seems like we need something else.
Last year's team played some of the best defense in the Orr era. It was nearly all zone, but the ability to continue that would certainly make a big difference. And here, you have basically the same question marks--how will the new players fit into the overall system and contribute, and will Cam Black be healthy enough to anchor the defense around the rim and allow the other players in the zone to cover the perimeter.
All that to say that I have a relatively low degree of optimism for this season, until proven otherwise. This team could easily finish with single digit wins. Or, I can see that before I see this team winning 20 games.
The larger question is whether the assemblage of players we have here are prepared to move into the upper tier of the conference. Right now, it would appear to be relatively impenetrable to us, but perhaps we will be surprised by what we see.
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