Zipper problems

Next into the Stroh are the Akron Zips, one of the perennial powers in the East and coming off a road win at Millett over the weekend.  The conference season is a grind, but the Falcons really need to continue their strong home play with a win over the Zips.  Until we see improvement on the road, there's a lot of pressure to hold serve at home.

The series has been unkind to BG of late.  The Falcons have lost 12 of their last 13 against the Zips, with the one win coming when Brian Moten drained a miracle shot....that was the game that set BG up for its most recent regular season title.  A couple of the recent games have been blow outs, including a 35-point whipping at Anderson Arena.

So, the Falcons have a little bit of history to correct if they are going to win this one.  Put another way, maybe they are just due.

The Zips have 9-6, but that's against the 116th best schedule in the country.  Their RPI is 106.  This team is better than a 9-6 record.  They started the season with a big win @Mississippi State, and then struggled to 3-5---but 4 of those losses were against teams with sub-100 RPI.  They hit a softer part of their schedule, and have now won 6 out of 7 with the one loss being in OT on a last second basket to VCU.  The streak has included a nice win @Marshall and the previously mentioned win over Miami.

There are an unusual number of common opponents.  And, just like BG, they have lost to Valpo and Duquesne and beaten Detroit.

Offensively, they are very effective, scoring 74 points a game and getting 1.06 points per possession, both of which are in the top 100 in the country.  In total from the field they are shooting 46% which is slightly better than BG is, but they are trying 3 more 3s a game and hitting 40% (16th in the country) which is how they end up with better scoring.

Their free throw rate is in the lower 3rd of the country, but still stronger than BG's, which is 333rd.  They are good on on the offensive boards--112th in the country.  Finally, 14 turnovers a game which is about 20% of their possessions, which is relatively typical.

On defense, they are giving up 65 points a game and .94 per possession, the latter of which is in the top 100 in the country.  Teams are shooting only 41% against them and 28% from beyond the arc.  That's the basis of the defensive game...they are decent but nothing special in forcing turnovers and on the offensive boards.  They are physical and commit more fouls than average.

Individually, Akron features its usual balanced scoring.  They have 7 players who are averaging between 8 and 10.6 PPG, their high.  Those players are Marshall, Cvetinovic , Diggs, Harney, Walsh (transfer from Xavier) Treadwell and Abreu.

Cvetinovic is their leading rebounder as well.  Abreu has been injured some but still leads the team with 4 assists per game and Zeke Marshall is 10th in the country with 3 blocks per game.

Marshall is an interesting case.  He came into the MAC highly acclaimed, yet I would say he is only just now reaching the poing where he is a force in games.  (And might be the kind of player Cam Black could be).  There are rumors he may go pro after this year, which would probably not be a good move, although I read somewhere that he would project to a second round pick.

You have to give the Zips credit.  I think they develop their players well.  Both Treadwell and Harney, for example, play limited minutes as freshman, but here they are ready to step up and contribute in the sophomore year.

Akron is a good team.  So was OU, and the Falcons were able to win that game, and it is going to take that kind of an effort.  Crawford played Cooper tough and now he needs to bring the same kind of game against Abreu.  BG needs to play outstanding defense--whether man or zone, though I am betting zone--as Akron has multiple scorers and obviously shares the ball.  And, of course, as we always say, the Falcons could make it a lot easier on themselves getting some baskets.

This is going to be a very interesting game.  If BG shows chops on the home floor again, then it might really be turning into something.  Akron is battle hardened though, and used to beating BG.  If they sense any cracks, they are going to rush through them.  It would be great to show that BG is the kind of team that can pull two of these off in a row.