Three Days in DeKalb...

As BG digs out from the snowstorm, we can take a look at tonight's NIU game.  The Falcons have been in lovely DeKalb since Monday, just to ensure that there would not be an issue travelling yesterday.  In fact, the men were representin' by attending the BG women's game, doubling the crowd and cheering the Falcons on to a hard fought win.

Anyhow, the Falcons should have plenty of time to hone their strategy, bond, etc, after 48 hours in DeKalb Illinois.

When you look at the Huskies, you can't go too far without thinking about Xavier Silas.  He is the leading scorer in the MAC and the 9th scorer in the country.  He adds to that by being an excellent FT shooter.  There is no doubt, he is a force and he is a good player.  In the pre-season I called him overrated, then I regretted it since then, and now I am ready to make the case again.  I will use some tempo free numbers to demonstrate why I feel he is a good but not great player in a post later today.

NIU is 7-12 against the nation's 265th ranked schedule, and they are 3-4 in the MAC.  They have beaten EMU and Toledo (who has not?), but did beat Akron in DeKalb.  They did lose @CMU, along with Ball State, @WMU and @Buffalo.  They are 5-3 at home.

In the pre-season, their marquee win was over Utah Valley University (#263) and they did have tough games against Northwestern, Missouri and Temple.

NIU plays the fourth fastest style in the MAC, at almost 67 possessions per game.  They score 70 points a game, but they are only 6th in offensive efficiency.  (These numbers are MAC games only).  They are 5th in the MAC in FG%, and while they are second best at 3-FG%, they are in the middle of the pack in actually shooting them, indicating either that they are selective and take good threes or Silas never passes the ball.

Their offensive efficiency is greatly helped by how well they take care of the ball---they are second in the MAC in preventing turnovers.  It is not helped by the fact that they are the worst team in the MAC on the offensive boards.  They do get to the line, but they are 10th in FT%, which is clearly holding them back.

On defense, (and this is interesting), they are actually the leading team in the MAC on the boards.  So, they are very good on the defensive boards and very poor on the offensive boards, which I assume is based on a strategic decision in terms of how many guys crash the boards.

They are 8th in defensive efficiency....6th in FG% and 9th in effective FG%.  We know what that means---they are vulnerable to the 3, which they are, at 10th in the MAC.  They are second in the MAC in forcing turnovers and somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing FTs.

College Basketball

Silas is their only double figures scorer at 24 a game.  Tim Toler is getting about 9 a game, based on 40%+ 3FG shooting.

Given their rebounding stats, it is surprising that they seem to rebound by committee.  They have 4 players getting about 4 rebounds per game.  They are not a big team--Toler is their tallest regular at 6'7".

(For those who are curious, former Falcon Cameron Madlock is averaging 9 minutes, 1 point and 2 rebounds this year).

On the ball-handling, Bryan Hall has about 3 assists per game.

When I look at this game, I see that we are playing a team that can be tough at home, that takes care of the ball and is very solid on the defensive boards.  We have thrived on turning teams over.  I do think we can score on them, and for all of Silas' dramatics it hasn't translated to wins.

This is what the game is about.  We need to have our style defeat their style, meaning that we use our inside guys to get to the basket and we get some turnovers on defense, and play tough on the road.