John Wagner of the Blade with Steals Analysis

We have often wondered here whether there is a difference between points off turnovers and points off steals.  Here's the rationale.  If you get a turnover that results in an inbounds play, in theory your next possession is just like any other half court possession.  But, if you get a steal, than you are often getting a transition opportunity which should present you with a better chance to score.

John Wagner of The Blade brought some facts to bear on this argument today, in the Falcon Fodder Blog.    His conclusions are that BG is among the national leaders in steals, but have actually scored fewer points off steals than their MAC opponents.  Further, BG's scoring rate on steals is below what it is on all turnovers and on straight possessions.  (Working against our theory).

However, working for our theory, BG's opponents are very successful off steals, which is how it seems like it should be intuitively.

Here is his conclusion:

From these numbers, it seems either BG isn't taking full advantage of its steals, or MAC opponents are really taking advantage of the Falcons' turnovers. In short, crime just doesn't pay.

It is my opinion that the stats software that spits out the numbers should produce a stat for points off steals, for just this reason.

Meanwhile, nice work John!