Wednesday, October 07, 2009

International Centre for Special Teams Research

So, the venerable ICSTR is meeting again. With a track record of special teams analysis dating back to August, we are patiently awaiting our Nobel Prize....hint...hint.

If you recall, this is a system I have been cooking up for some time. It awards points for positive plays and negative plays made on special teams, and gives no points to plays which are expected or in an ordinary range. You can read the explanation here if you like.

Anyhoo, I was mildly surprised that the ratings this week were not worse than they turned out. Leaving the game, I knew that BG had given up the big TD and also had a failed punt, and that's -9 right there. But, as it turns out, BG was only -4 for the game. We contributed a number of positive plays, including some nice kickoff returns, and two big Freddie Barnes punt returns.

A couple notes. First, a 54 yard punt return should probably be more than one point, even if you don't score. And second, a couple of those kickoffs that were touchbacks were wind-aided, so, you know, that probably balances out.

Anyway, the special teams are no worse than the rest of the team at giving up big plays, but it is clear in this game that we gave up two huge plays that were or led to OU scores, and balanced that against a series of lesser but still productive plays.

BG Positive Plays (+8)
BG punt inside OU 10 (+1)
BG Kickoff, touchback (+1)
BG Kickoff returned to the OU 19 (+1)
OU Kickoff returned to the BG 41 (+1)
BG Kickoff touchback (+1)
OU Kickoff returned to the BG 37 (+1)
OU Punt 23 yard net with 17 yard return (+1)
OU punt net -6 yards with 54 yard return (+1)

BG Negative Plays (-12)
BG Kick off out of bounds (-1)
BG Kickoff returned to BG 49 (-2)
BG Fake Punt Fails (-3)
BG Punt returned for TD (-6)

BG Neutral Plays
OU kickoff returned to BG 23
BG 33 yd FG
BG punt 43 yard net
BG 33 yard FG
OU Kickoff returned to BG 28
BG xp
BG 31 yard FG
OU Kickoff returned to BG 28
BG xp
BG xp
BG Kickoff returned to OU 29
OU kickoff return to BG 43 (neutral due to kicking off from 15).
BG xp
BG kickoff returned to the OU 32
OU kickoff returned to BG 31 (36 with a penalty on OU)

Obviously, the flip is more or less true for OU. They were +4. (It doesn't always work out this way, with one team a flip image of the other. OU had a surprising number of minor but poorly executed special team plays, including poor punt and kickoff coverage and missing an extra point.

OU Positive Plays (+13)
BG Punt Returned for touchdown (+6)
BG Fake Punt Stopped. (+3)
BG Kickoff returned to BG 49 (+2)
OU Kickoff, touchback (+1)
OU 42 yard field goal. (+1)

OU Negative Plays (-9)
OU kickoff returned to BG 36 with penalty (-1)
BG Kickoff returned to the OU 18 (-1)
OU Kickoff returned to the BG 41 (-1)
OU kickoff returned to BG 37 (-1)
OU punt, 23 yard net. (-1)
OU punt with -6 net with 54 yard return (-1)
OU Punt 21 yard net (-1)
OU missed xp. (-2)

OU Neutral
OU kickoff returned to BG 23.
BG Punt 43 yard net
OU punt, 33 yard net
OU punt, 39 yard net
OU xp
OU xp
OU kickoff returned to BG 34
OU Xp
OU xp
OU kickoff returned to BG 28
OU xp
BG kickoff returned to OU 25
OU xp
OU Kickoff returned to 43, but off penalty.
BG kickoff returned to OU 32

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