25 Kitty Questions

What is their body of work?

OU is 2-2. Their wins are over North Texas (on the road, but in OT....N. Texas is ranked among the five worst teams in FBS, altough ahead of Ball State, EMU and Miami) and Cal Poly (FCS). Their losses are at home to Connecticut (a 3-1 BCS team who seems better than we thought at the time) and @Tennessee, where they were within one score with 10 minutes left in the game. (The exact quality of the Volunteers has yet to be determined, since they have only beaten OU and WKU, but on the road, that remained a tough game for any MAC team).

I ranked them #7 in the MAC power poll, because their body of work really is two poor wins and two manageable losses.

What is their best result?

By result, I mean actual outcome, so I'm going to have to say the road win over N. Texas.

What was their worst result last season?

Similarly, I losing at home to UConn, a game I really thought they could win.

What was the turnover margin?

This has been good for them, they are +4. Lots of turnovers both ways, they have given up 9 and gotten 13. They have 7 INTs, which is pretty good.

Offense:

How is their QB play?

Coach raved about Theo Scott in the presser this week. For the first two games, he split time with Boo Jackson, but now the job belongs solely to Scott and Jackson is not even on the depth chart. Scott had a nice line in Knoxville. He did throw for 319 yards, but that was on 52 attempts, so that works out to just over 6 yards per attempt. He completed under 60%, and had a TD and an INT.

Overall, his passer ranking is slightly better than Tyler Sheehan's, buoyed mostly by a huge game against Cal Poly. Coach also touted him as a dual threat QB, but removing sacks from his rushing total still leaves 14 carries for -11 yards. He has not run the ball very much in any game.

So, he may well be as good as he was touted by Coach Clawson, but it hasn't been reflected in actual productivity yet, so I'm in the "Wait and see camp."

(Final note: due notice must be given that BG's historic record against mobile QBs is only slightly less catastrophic than the Cleveland Browns 2009 offense.)

What was their yard per play?

Yards per play is 4.7, which is pretty meager.

Can they run the ball?

When you take sacks out, they are running for 3.4 yards per carry, which is not especially good. Furthermore, much of that came against Cal Poly. They have only 2.4 yards per carry (sack adjusted) for their remaining games. Chris Gamble is a decent runner (3.9 yards per carry) but again, that is heavily influenced by the Cal Poly game.

Do they pass the ball?

They are sixth in the MAC in passing yards per game and also in passing efficiency. As noted on the Theo Scott comments, that remains to be seen. Their completion % is tied for 11th in the MAC, which is partly balanced out by have some big play guys out there.

How is their run/pass balance.

Surprisingly, they run the ball only 44% of the time. This is Frankball, after all. Now, in the games that were not at an SEC opponent, they have been more around 50%. I don't think balance is really about playcalling, though. They have not consistently shown the ability to either run OR pass to date.

Do they convert on 3rd Down.

36.9% is eighth in the MAC, which makes them pretty average.

Do they score in the red zone?

They are not good. They average 3 points per red zone trip, and have fumbled twice in the red zone. 13 red zone trips have yielded only four touchdowns.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They have given up 8 sacks, but none since Scott took over.

Let's keep this in mind. Phil Steele thought OU would win the East, not because of their offensive prowess, but because of their defense. I think a fair evaluation of their body to work to date indicates a team with a decent record on top of a good turnover margin, but certainly not driven by offensive performance. Now, we haven't seen them in MAC play yet, and perhaps Scott is turning things around. I am only saying TO DATE there has been no evidence that OU is anything but an average to below average offensive team.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They are sixth in the MAC in points allowed, although that includes a double over time game against the Mean Green. Their 4.7 yards per play is second in the MAC, and a very solid number if it can be sustained.

Do they defend the run effectively?

On the surface, they are tenth in the MAC in run defense. However, the MAC ranks by yards per game, and that's just not the most meaningful number? Why? Because Cal Poly only completed ONE pass against OU, so there have been more attempts, which has to mean more yards, even if you defend it well. 4.3 yards per carry is actually 5th in the conference, and a very solid number.

Could they be passed on?

Their pass defense appears to be very solid. They allow only 48% completions (the lowest in the conference) with 5.3 yards per attempt (an outstanding number) and 7 INTS. Now, North Texas (perhaps their most comparable opponent) was 21 of 35 against them, while UConn was 11 or 24 with 3 Ints. Tennessee also did not pass on them very effectively. Clearly, this part of their defense has been very productive to date.

Did they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are absolutely deadly on third down, allowing only 29% conversions and that is 2nd in the MAC. This is not a schedule thing--Tennessee was only 5 of 14.

Do they defend in the red zone?

Depends on how you look at it. When teams get into the red zone, they are scoring, with a 4.5 average per trip. But, OU has allowed only 12 red zone trips, which is tied for third in the conference.

Do they pressure the QB?

Five sacks in four games is a typical amount.

One last note: I don't usually look at play mix for the defense, but I think it is instructive here. Even excluding the Cal Poly game, OU still has 59% of its defensive plays as running. Bowling Green is going to have to establish the run to beat this team.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Their average net is 35 yards, which is a very typical figure.

Punt Return?

5.8 yards per return is in the bottom half of the MAC.

Placekicking?

He is 7-11 this year, with two misses inside 40 and a 50 yarder, which basically means he is pretty average kicker.

Kickoff?

Their style is short kicks with short returns. Their average length is 55 yards (lowest in the MAC) which is to the 25, followed by an average 15 yard return. Their net of 40 yards means teams average a start on the 30 yard line.

Kickoff Return?

Boise was our best kickoff game, and we will need this again. They are second in the MAC with about 27 yards per return, and Chris Garrett scored one against Tennessee. He is dangerous, but no more dangerous than the guys Boise has.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

Well, that will be interesting to see. OU is coming off a game where they have to feel OK about their performance, while BG is coming off a guy where they clearly don't feel like they played very well. It will be a test for BG to bounce back, and Coach's presser indicated this week that the team recognizes that.

The series has been pretty even in the last few years, with the road team having more success. BG won last year in Athens, but OU won at the Doyt the year before that.

I don't know that there are any real overriding issues, beyond those. I think that playing in BG, the pressure is on the Falcons to "hold serve" and win the game. A nice win for the Falcons and a return to the quality of play that we saw in the opener would help everyone feel like we had a shot at making the title game.