Permutations, Part I

So, we've reached that time of year when we begin to look at the various paths teams might have to the East Division Title.  

This is a BG Blog, so the ultimate question I want to answer is whether BG still has a chance to win the East, and if they do, what has to happen for that to transpire.  Obviously, I understand that this is all pretty unlikely, but November is wacky-team in the MAC, and improbable things do happen.  Let me point to a Miami team that appears to be improving as just one spoiler in the mix.

We will begin with the idea BG wins out.  It is possible to win a division with 3 losses, but we will deal with that later.  I contend that BG is capable of winning each of those last four games, but that we have not shown any ability to put 4 (or even 3) straight strong games together.

The first thing that has to happen is that OU has to lose twice before BG could win a head to head tie breaker with them.  Certainly, OU could lose at Buffalo and to NIU.

Then, BG would need Temple to lose twice and Kent once (we beat Kent, so we can tie with them, and we don't play Temple at all).  Temple could easily lose to Kent and @OU, which would mean that Kent would have to lose to Akron or Buffalo.

The BG-Temple tie breaker would be East Division record, and under this scenario, BOTH of Temple's losses would be in the East while only one of BG's would be, so I would guess that BG would win that one.

No individual event in here is implausible.  Their totality....probably.  I believe that Temple will win their next three, and OU will lose to NIU, meaning that Temple will have clinched it before their showdown in Athens.  Things never go as expected, so let's watch and enjoy.....

Team	Record
Temple	4-0	Miami, @Akron, Kent, @OU
Kent	4-1	@Akron, @Temple, Buffalo
Ohio U	4-1	@Buffalo, NIU, Temple
Bowling Green	2-2	@Buffalo, @Miami, Akron, UT
Buffalo	1-3	BG, OU, @Miami, @Kent
Miami	1-4	Miami, Buffalo, @Akron, @Kent
Akron	0-4		Kent,Temple, @BG, EMU