Purple Eagle Preview

The Niagara Purple Eagles are picked last in MAAC by Blue Ribbon.  Coaches have them 8th.  Kenpom had them second to last--13th--second to last, ahead of only Canisius.

They have made 3 NCAA tournament appearances, the last one in 2007. They made the Sweet Sixteen in 1970 with a team coached by legend Frank Leyden and led by Hall-of-Famer Calvin Murphy.

In the 1950s, they were regulars in the NIT when it was an important tournament.  Their early teams featured Larry Costello, who went on to be an NBA Champion as a player and coach and 2nd-team All-NBA and is in the Basketball Hall of Fame.

This is our 10th meeting, with Niagara leading the series 6-3.  BG won 2 out of 3 in the 1950s, but it has been tougher going since then. Niagara has won the last 4, the last of which was in 2010 at Calihan Hall in a hidden corner of some bigger tournament.

They are coached by Greg Paulus, remembered as a three-time all-ACC guard for Duke.  He was an assistant at Navy, OSU, Louisville and GW before getting the Niagara gig.  He is 68-80 in his sixth season.

They are 1-2, 0-2  in D1 play.  They lost by 36 @MSU and then lost in OT to Detroit (in Calihan Hall...whooaaaaa).

Like many teams, Niagara had a complete roster turnover from last year.

Niagara's kenpom is 333.  Detroit is 343.  BG is 252.

ESPN gives BG a 74% chance of winning and kempom gives BG a 77% chance.

Niagara is led by Olumide Adelodun, who actually played two years for OU before transferring to DII Winona and then came to Niagara.  He is 6'5", scores 16 PPG on 46% 3FG shooting and 4 RPG.  

Jahari Williamson is a G who transferred from Elon.  He is scoring 11 PPG on 50% 3FG shooting. 

Jadean Marshall is 6'4" and a transfer from Omaha.  He is scoring 10.3 PPG on a rough 38% shooting.

Josiah Davis leads the team with 11 assists.  He transferred from Tennessee Tech.

Their top rebounder is Justice Smith at 4.3 RPG. He's 6'6" and a transfer from East Tennesee State.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (2-9)  Beat Georgetown

PSU:  (9-1) Beat Purdue

TX A&M: (7-2) Beat New Mexico State

ODU:  (4-6)  Lost to James Madison

Akron:  (2-7) #MACTION

NIU: (5-4) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-9) #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) #MACTION

CMU (3-6) #MACTION

WMU: (5-4) #MACTION

BSU (3-6): #MACTION

MU:  (5-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Michigan State Scores Last 18 Points to Win

Things were actually going pretty well for the Falcons.  Heading into the last media timeout of the first half, BG was up 12 points.  The last four minutes--my BG English professors taught me that this is foreshadowing--went 15-3 to MSU and it was tied at the half.

Even so, if I had told you we'd be tied at halftime, you'd have been OK with that.

BG came out hard in the second half and had an 8-point lead with 11 minutes left.   MSU had it tied with 9:35 left. BG led by 4 with 7:11 left.  The score was 72-68. The sad fact is that BG did not score again while MSU scored 18 points in that period (40-minute equivalent of 102).  

It was a disaster.  Coach said BG got a "little shot happy" and that's clear...they missed 6 3FGs in that period (40-minute equivalent of 34), some of them just rimming out and a decent number as open looks.  They also missed 2 2FGs, the front end of a 1-1, and had 3 turnovers.

MSU is a good team, it was on their floor, and the Falcons led for over 24 minutes but winning games like this is really hard for a reason.

The announcers mentioned that BG hadn't won a P5 game since 2005.  I went back and looked, that was a crazy win over Virginia Tech when there was a scramble at the rim at the buzzer and a VA Tech player tipped it into their own basket.  No replay in those days, and Dakich said after the game that his strategy was to get off the floor as fast as possible and "make them drag us out," an approach that worked out poorly in a buzzer-banging blizzard in Buffalo a while later.

Anyhow.

The game was played at 71 possessions, our slowest of the year.  BG had 1.02 points per possession, which is below the national average of 1.05.  The Falcons were outshot...their 61% on 2FG is excellent, but the 19% on 3FG is far from it....especially when 42% of your shots are from 3FG.  (Nationally, 40% of shots have been from 3FG this year). BG only shot worse from 3FG 3 times last year. Turnovers were close...MSU was dominant on the offensive boards, as expected, and made 28 of 32 FTs, while BG made 13 of 14.  Overall, BG was called for 26 fouls and MSU for 12.

Marcus Johnson had 23 points, but it took him 24 shots to get there. He was 8 of 13 from 2FG and 1-11 from 3FG.  Coach said after the game that we are asking a lot out of Marcus right now, and it was made worse with foul trouble.  He won't go 1-11 again, Coach said.  And he wasn't intended to play that many minutes.  He also led the team with 5 rebounds and had 4 turnovers.

Campbell had 14 points on 6 of 10 and 0 of 3 shooting.  He also had 4 turnovers and 2 steals.

Youssef Khayat on 3 of 5 2FG shooting and 7-7 at the line.

This is a team still very much trying to find combinations that work. Simon played 10 guys.

• Khayat 37
• Campbell 36
• Johnson 35
• Thomas 28
• Towns 26
• Green 11
• Felt 9
• Butler 8 (Down each game from 28 at Southern Miss)
• Humphrey 7
• Exacte 2
• Squire DNP

We played 19 lineups for the game.  I feel like there's a foundation with the starters--I am surprised that we haven't gotten more out of our depth. BG had 6 bench points and two players (Butler and Humphrey) had terrible +/- in limited minutes.

There is a long way to go. We can get our first D1 win on Tuesday against Niagara (#333), they lost to MSU by 36.  They are coached by Duke star Greg Paulus.

Football Nabs Verbal

BG has a verbal commit for football.  It is Reece Little, from Findlay.  He's a 6'3" and 200 pound TE who played with one of the top QBs in the country---Ryan Montgomery, who is going to Georgia.

247 shows offers from UB, UA and EMU.   He played and contributed since he was a sophomore, was first-team all-conference.

Ohio Prep Redzone had him #124 in OH and #9 at TE and seems to project as a hybrid catch/block guy that is increasingly popular in offenses today.

Signing day is December 4 and roster chaos should start shortly thereafter.

Welcome to the Falcons, Reece.

Spartan Preview

 On the banks of Red Cedar...that's where BG is headed on Saturday to battle the Michigan State Spartans.

You know about these guys.  Twenty-six straight NCAA appearances, 37 in total.  Fourteen Elite Eights and 21 Sweet Sixteens.  Ten Final fours, 3 finals, two titles.

There are 16 regular season Big Ten Championships and 6 tournament titles.

Since Magic Johnson walked onto campus, MSU has been a dominant NCAA team.

They aren't at the high point right now, to be sure.  They have non-winning records in two of the last four seasons. They have not finished in a ranked position in any of those four years.

Part of the issue is that Izzo doesn't want to get guys out of the portal.  Even when he picked up 2 this year, they were non-G4 players, because he doesn't want to upset the players who are already there.

The teams have played 14 times, and BG has won 3.  One of those (1989) was @MSU...and the next year BG beat them at Anderson Arena in one of the building's most memorable games. Since then, the Spartans have won 5 straight.

They were picked #6 in the Big Ten by Blue Ribbon and #5 in the official poll. They are 2-1 on the season, with easy wins over Monmouth and Niagara and then an 8-point loss to Kansas this week.  Their current kenpom ranking is #34.

Both Kenpom and ESPN give them a 98% chance of winning the game on Saturday.

Jaxon Kohler leads them on the stat sheets, averaging a 12.2 and 10.3 double double in 19 minutes off the bench.  Shoots 48% from the field.

Next is Jaden Akins, a 6'4" G.  He's scoring 11.7 on 45% shooting overall.  

Frankie Filder is one of those transfers, a 6'7" All-Summit player from Omaha.  He scores an incredibly inefficient 11.7 on 31% overall shooting.  He has made 17 of 20 from the line.

Freshman Jase Richardson scores 10 a game shooting 65% coming off the bench.

R-RF Jeremy Fears has 22 assists over 5 turnovers in 3 games.

One note:  They have been terrible from distance.  They try only 30% from 3FG and are #347 in the country at making them (20%).  As expected, they play good defense, at #11 in the country (.92 per possession). 

MAC Football Standings and discussion

 

So here is where things stand.  This is the best thing ever....

There are a myriad of things that could happen.  As an aside, big multi-team tie-breakers are a recognized weakness of not having divisions.  A lot comes down to a little.  But that's what we have.

As a reminder, the MAC Tiebreaker Policy is here.

With two wins, BG is in, because Miami would have two losses. Miami would be the second team because they beat OU if it is head to head, but it's more complicated if WMU, UT or UB also finishes a with 2 losses.

There is a significant chance that there will be a tiebreaker at two losses. In fact, there's reason to think all of the 2 loss teams win out...leaving those three, plus OU (if they beat Ball State), and either BG or Miami assuming the loser of that game wins their other game.

Of course, it doesn't have to go that way.  OU could beat UT.  EMU could beat UB or WMU, especially UB @ EMU. Miami could lose to NIU.  Ball State is a danger...all four of their conference losses have been by less than a TD. 

Look...OU loses twice, BG or Miami twice, WMU, UB and UT once, and we have a tie-breaker at 3 losses...scenario requires UT to lose to Akron.

We will know more soon--in fact, by the time we head to Muncie, things will be much clearer.

Game on.

Sweet Victory

 The beat goes on for the Falcons...they are playing outstanding football and control their own destiny.  Two wins and they are in the title game.  One win and its still possible, all depending on who ends up where.

This is what we were promised.  It took a long time to get here, but this was the team we promised.  It didn't always look like it would get here, but last night there can be no doubt.  Two more games...playing high-tension November ball.  

WMU won the toss and took the ball.  In what would be a precursor, BG took them three and out.  BG took the punt and went on a 12-play, 4 minute drive that ended with a Zach Long 50 yard FG.  Long--an injury replacement--is turning into a real weapon.

The teams traded punts and then WMU drove down the field and scored a TD...up 7-3, now in the early 2nd, they pooched the kickoff, which was muffed and recovered by WMU. 

Bam Booker took a brutal hit and was out cold.  He was on the field for a long time before he left on a stretcher.  The silence in the stands was scary.  You can't tell much from the stands, but I just watched the replay and I cannot believe that didn't at least get sent to a replay.  It surely looked enough like targeting to get a look.  But, that did not happen.  Also, the technicality of the targeting rules sometimes get by me...but it was a brutal hit to the head.

Last night, BG said that he was awake, speaking and had movement in his extremities.  Best to him on his recovery.

Coach said he went to the sideline and reported to the team that Booker looked like he would be OK. The team clearly responded to that news. The game's key sequence unfolded next.

WMU had the ball on the BG 37.  Saad took a runner down for a loss of 3, Horne came running full force and blew Wolff up for a six-yard loss, and then WMU got 5 yards on 3rd down and punted BG to the 16.

Down 7-3, BG drove the 84 yards in 6 plays for a TD. Starting with a 19 yard Stewart run, 21 yards to Fannin in heavy traffic over the middle on play 2, Johnson for 6 on play 4, Bazelak-Malcon Johnson for 12 to convert on 3rd and 3 and then a 25 yard pass to Fannin on a play Loeffler says they put in two days ago for the score.

Up 14-3, Ja'Cory Benjamin made an incredible pick on the first WMU play from scrimmage.  BG started on the WMU 26, Stewart ran it to the 1 and then Bazelak scored on a tush-pushy play and BG was up 17-7 with 4 left in the half.

Remember, BG gets the ball to start the second half because WMU took the ball to start the game.

WMU got a drive going, getting to the BG 35.  Then, the defense bowed up, forced a 50-yard FG that missed and BG headed into the locker room 17-7.

The game was far from over, but the tone was set.  That sequence after the Booker injury clearly changed the game.

BG took the kickoff, converted a 3rd and 6 on a QB draw, hit Fannin twice for a total of 32 yards and then Strwart ran it in from 17 to put BG up 24-7.  Again, the game is not over, but BG has control of the game.

WMU took the kick, made a first down and then a BG sack on 2nd and 6 followed by a delay of game penalty had the Broncos punting.  On the second play of the drive, Stewart ran to 60 and Bazelak hit Fannin for 10 yards on the second play for the score and it was 31-7 6:30 left to play in the 3rd.

As it turned out, the game was over.  Just bookend the sequence from the Booker injury to that TD and see how BG blew the doors off WMU.

WMU scored on the next drive, but it took them 6 minutes.  BG did a great job making WMU work their way down the field slowly.  Down 24, they went for 2 and missed, leaving BG ahead 31-13, and 18 play lead that still is 3 scores.  The 4th quarter played itself out and the Falcons had a huge home win.

Sweet victory.

First credit goes to the defense. WMU came in leading the MAC in scoring, yards per play, passing efficiency and yards per rush. 

And the BG defense shut them down.  The week before against NIU they had 200 rushing yards...in this one, they had 97 yards on 36 attempts. Wolff was 24 of 32 passing, 2 INT and most importantly 8 yards a completion.  Their longest play was 25 yards--two of them, both passes, and one of them in garbage time.  And 4 sacks.  And 4 of 15 on 3rd down.

BG kept the ball in from of them, denied the run, got a key INT and dominated the best offensive team in the MAC.  I honestly think we call a strong game on defense.  We have guys where they need to be and they are making their share of plays.

The offense relied on its three best players.  There's nothing wrong with having good players. Fannin was 10-137 and 2 TDS.  Has to make first-team All-American. Stewart had 15 carries for 150 yards.  Did not lose any yards.  Scored once. Was a pure force, as he is at his best.

And Conner Bazelak, who is playing really well.  He isn't going to get Matt Johnson numbers because we play different...we ran only 56 plays, for example.  But he does what they need in a complex offense and without even decent WRs. He was 15 of 22 for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns, and probably a half-dozen perfect throws into very small windows.  PFF graded him at 91, a career-high, including all of his schools. His season grade of 82 leads the MAC.

BG averaged 7.2 yards per play.  If that might work for you.

Except for the kickoff muff, BG's special teams were very good.  Long had a long FG. Henderson put them inside the 20 twice on 3 punts. 

Falcons Harvest Guaranteed Win

The Falcons hit the floor at home against NAIA Taylor...it's on the schedule to be a win and that's what happened.  The Falcons beat Taylor 107-43.  Not much to see here except for the first minutes of Jaxon Pardon, who nailed a 3FG, had a steal and then a DUNK for 5 points in 5 minutes.

Next up is Michigan State on Saturday.