Monday, October 14, 2024

Loeffler Presser: Lack of Confidence

Coach had his weekly presser today.

He said that the problem the offensive line is having is that they have lost confidence and they are afraid of making a mistake. He doesn't know how it happened or why, but he says that if we can get that back, things will be fine.  

He went through the "lot of football left to play" stuff. Which there is.  We have met some adversity.  Which doesn't last forever. (As a BG football fan, I'd like to quibble with this...it certainly FEELS like it has).

There was also a lot of talk about the issues facing college football today.  He especially mentioned NIL, portal and red-shirting, which is an odd thing to add.  He says that players get a lot of distractions.  I don't have any idea what's going on but it seems like it might tie into a series of other cryptic statements he has been making.

Or maybe not.

He says he won't know about Bazelak until later in the week.  If Anderson does play, they will have a more personalized game plan for him.  I personally think he would be very effective on RPOs, but who knows.

Jackson Kleather is also day-to-day.

He didn't give a prognosis, but he said that Orth had the same shoulder surgery Loeffler had when he was at Michigan.  In fact, Loeffler had it twice or even possibly more.  He proceeded to give a complete history of players who have had this surgery and whether they ever made it back.

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-7)  Lost to Holy Cross

PSU:  (6-0) Beat USC in thriller

TX A&M: (5-1) Idle hands

ODU:  (2-4)  Beat Georgia Southern

Akron:  (1-6) Finally lost to WMU after five hour rain delay.

NIU: (4-2)  Played us

KSU:  (0-6) Furious rally falls 2 points short us Ball State.  Pure MACTION.

UT:  (4-2) Lost to UB

CMU (3-3) Furious rally, lost by 2 to OU.

WMU: (3-3) Beat Akron after 5-hour rain delay

BSU (2-4): Beat Kent 37-35. PURE MACTION.  (In conference play, BSU is scoring 38 a game and allowing 39.

MU:  (2-4) Smoked EMU.


Vs. P4   2-20

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Sadness Accrues

Sadness accrues.

Looking back, you can see the trend.  You lose at home to ODU...nearly lose at Akron...and come in against a team that is a legit title contender and you play similar to how you did against ODU and Akron and it's an extremely disappointing loss.  As our commenters have noted...it was a referendum on the current regime.  As I said, it was the moment of truth.  Mike Jinks ain't walking through that door.  And we saw what we saw.

Coach summed it up after the game.  I thought it was a pretty good presser.  He didn't mention Notre Dame.  He said we got beat up front on offense.  And that was exactly what happened.  This year's offense was supposed to be built on a good QB, a great TE, a great RB, and a competent line.  But without that last one, there's nothing.  Coach said that he would look at his play sheet and see nothing he could call because we couldn't block. Gibby talked about us getting beat up the middle, not even getting a hand on guys.  A missed block on the screen that cost Johnson a key fourth down conversion in NIU territory late in the game. (I went back and watched this play again...with a block, that's probably a touchdown.  And he was definitely short).

For example.  NIU got the ball first and drove for a FG.  BG got the ball and went 75 yards and 5 plays for a TD.  From that point forward, almost a whole game, BG ran 51 plays for 130 yards.  Take out the fake punt, and we ran 50 plays for 107 yards.

Let's take a case in point.  BG is up 7-6 at halftime and gets the ball to start the 3rd. Bazelak was injured in the second quarter and can barely move.  Loeffler says he saw the injury (leg) and said "it wasn't pretty."  Bazelak is a gamer, though, and he wanted to be on the field.

BG commits two penalties, one accepted, and makes 1 yard otherwise and is punting on 4 and 14 when Henderson ran his fake punt for a first down.  BG picks up the pace a little.  From the NIU 19, they run a play to Stewart that is BLOWN UP.  He's fighting with an 8-yard loss and BG catches a huge break when someone grabs his face mask long after the play's result was decided.

BG to the 9.  Patterson runs it to the 2. 

This is a huge opportunity. And what follows is a defining moment of where we are.

This is not all on our players.  Our playcallers...I don't know.  I was hoping last year we'd bring a real OC, but we didn't.  Anyway, we tried Fannin in a wildcat and he got nowhere.  On third down, we dropped the nearly lame Bazelak back to pass, turned a rusher loose in the middle and took a sack.

It's not done.  Jackson Kleather, our first kicker, seriously injured himself when missing a first-half FG. Zach Long comes in.  He makes the FG.  Unfortunately, according to the coach, we had a guy who was a starter who didn't go out to get in the formation for the FG, so they sent another guy out who didn't line up right and we had an illegal formation.  Forced to try the FG again, we missed.  From the 2-yard line, catching two huge breaks, we get no points and a QB who can't move.

Sadness Accrues.

Bazelak came out to start the next series.  Stewart went for 10 but it was called back for an illegal formation.  That was the last we would see of Bazelak. (Coach said we should see him back soon, but it's not clear if that means for next week and we won't know that until Saturday afternoon, probably).

NIU, by the way, played without their starting QB for most of the game.

The defense held NIU well.  The rush defense was effective.  NIU is an RPO team, not really a drop back team.  They scored on the first play of the 4th quarter on a QB run, lined up to go for 2 in a gadget formation that had us looking completely confused and they scored the 2 to make it 14-7.

BG gets the ball back and runs on 3rd and 10, makes 5 yards and has to punt.  They catch another huge break when NIU is calling for leaping.  Then, two plays later, NIU is called for PI. 

From the NIU 40, BG goes incomplete, Stewart gains 8 on the next two plays and its 4th and 2. BG goes to Jamal Johnson...right play call, we miss a downfield block and he is brought down short of the marker.  Was set up for a big play.

NIU then eats almost six minutes up before kicking a FG to make it 17-7 and that's all she wrote.

A few notes.  Anderson had a rough day.  It was a tough assignment.  Coach says they like him in the option, but we were behind.  (Teams do run the option when they are behind, FWIW).  He really struggled.  This was a tough assignment for your first meaningful snaps, and in all fairness, it was going to hell while Bazelak was still in there.  For those of you (you know who you are) who thought Anderson was a miracle in waiting, there you go.  Bazelak is the starter for a reason and it doesn't matter who the QB is if you can't protect him.

Bazelak dropped back 19 times and was pressured six times and sacked 5.  Not one of the pressures was on a blitz.  They were beating us with base.  (Why blitz?).  He was 1 of 6 when pressured.

Stewart had 64 yards on 13 rushes, almost half on one play.  

BG was 9 of 25 rushing between the guards, per PFF. 

As for the line, we know Nick Reimer missed another game.  BG did no rotating.  L-R, it was Pabst, Burns, Padgett, Fatusaki and Wollschlager. Based on PFF, three of these guys graded under 52% on run blocking. On pass blocking, one of them graded 25% and one was 40%, both in the middle of the line, as observed.

BG was 10 of 23 passing for 98 yards.

Fannin touched the ball 5 times.  RJ Garcia was not on the injury list but did not play.

The defense was solid.  NIU had their backup QB in.   Also, Antarrio Brown, their top back, did not play.  Gavin Williams had 102 yards but it took him 29 carries.  Overall, they rushed for 3.3 yards per rush and gained 3.8 per play.  We held them to 6 of 17 on 3rd down and on 3 red zone trips they only had 2 FGs.  

That includes when the offense gave them the ball deep in Falcon territory.  Bazelak was back to pass, Coach said he had a wide-open play, and a NIU DL pushed our left tackle directly into Bazelak's lap, causing a fumble recovery by NIU.

Eventually, the D ran out of gas but they took care of their part of the business.

Mostly, in this regime, it has been the offense that has let the effort down.  Two missed FGs was a killer, for sure.  But you got a fake punt, too and a blocked FG/bad snap.

There's no effective depth at QB--how often has that happened, as we watched Matt McDonald play injured because there was no one else.  After all this, we didn't have a line capable of handing NIU's line.  And we haven't recruited enough WRs, who had 3 catches yesterday.

This is where we are.  Year 6.  Coach's contract has one more year after this year, which really makes this year a decision year.  You either need to extend him or let him go.

Look, the season isn't over.  UB is in a strong position, and UB, OU and WMU all have 0 losses.  Six teams are 1-1 in the MAC. But this isn't last year, where the second half of our schedule was a joke. And the trend of the last 3 games would have to reverse itself, starting with next week.

At 2-4, the far more likely scenario is that we lose 3 more times and are not even bowl eligible.  With a team with 32 seniors.  (Remember:  we need to get OLD). 

Sadness accrues.

Thursday, October 10, 2024

Moment of Truth Preview

What is their body of work?

So NIU has been one of the dominant programs in the MAC.   They had a dominant period in the 10's, landing in the Orange Bowl and playing BG in 3 straight MAC Championship games, winning once.  They were also ranked when they played at BG for Gameday.

They are #2 in the MAC in wins since 2010. They lead the MAC in Championship game appearances and titles since 1997.

They went 0-for-COVID like BG did, had a good year the next year and fell back to earth the year after that.  They were 7-6/5-3 last year, as BG was.  

This season, they were picked in a tie for third with....Bowling Green.

They put themselves on immortal ground by winning at Notre Dame...following which they lost to UB and NC State and entered the 4th Quarter tied with UMass.

They host UT next week.

They were 12-point favorites over UB, FWIW.

BG is a 3-point favorite.  The Falcons have never lost to a G5 team that beat ND in the same season.

How experienced are they?

They have 33 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is experienced.

Who are their national leaders?

Cade Haberman has blocked 2 kicks, to lead the country.
Naveah Sanders is #14 in sacks.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -5, which is rough.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Ethan Hampton is good.  His efficiency is #4 in the MAC.  He completes 58%, has 8 TD over 4 INT and 13 yards a completion, which is really good.  NIU's traditional attack has been strong running, mobile QB and go over the top.  PFF ranks him as the top running QB in the MAC as well.  Bazelak is #5 in the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 28 per game, which is #73 in the nation.  They average 5.98 yards per play, which is 52nd. BG's defense allows 25 points per game, which is 82nd.  The Falcons allow 6.09 yards per play, which is 89th.

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  Their per game totals are #10 in the nation.  On a per rush average, they are 39th at 5.11 yards per carry.  Their top back, Antario Brown, was injured as UMass and his status will be known at gametime, but they have depth at RB and ran effectively after he left the game last week. BG allows 5.28 per rush.

Do they pass the ball?

As seen above, they are effective.  BG is #93 in pass defense efficiency, allowing almost exactly what NIU is getting.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 60% of their plays sack-adjusted.  That's a lot.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Yes, at 51% which is #14 in the country.  Run-first teams tend to be really strong on 3rd down.  BG allows 33% which is #28 in the nation.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.3 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed.

Do they protect the QB?

They do.  They allow sacks on 3.7% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 10% of passing attempts.

A couple other notes.  They keep the ball.  They are #10 in TOP.  They are 5 of 7 on 4th down.  Those 3rd down plays are going to be critical.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They allow 19 a game, which is #1 in the MAC.  They allow 4.64 yard per play, which is 18th.  The gap is due to turnover differential, I would suspect.  BG scored 28.4 which is #72 and 6.2 yards per play which is #67.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They allow 3.04 yards per carry, which is #18. At 4.8 yards per carry, BG's offense is #62.

Can they be passed on?

They are #46 in team passing efficiency defense. BG is #67 in team passing offense.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They surely do.  They are #2 in the country at 23% allowed. At 46%, BG is #34.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are very good.  4.3 points per trip--only allowed ten all year.  BG offense scored 4.9 per trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they get sacks on 9.2% of pass attempts.  BG allows sacks on only 4.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

At 35 a punt, they are #125.  No blocks, no TDs.  Hampton has pooched three times.

Punt Return?

Six returns, long of 10.

Placekicking? 

He's 6 of 9.  Blocked twice.  Long of 50.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 27, which is not good.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27, which is good.

Intangible Miscellany

My expectation is that the team that likes to play in big games will show up.  We are hoping for a good crowd.  BG is going to need to play at a high level.  BG has to keep the game close so they don't get one-dimensional.  And the Falcons need to re-discover the ability to run the ball.  NIU is certainly not unbeatable, as time has shown.  A win here is huge.  A loss puts us way behind the 8 ball.

Tuesday, October 08, 2024

Loeffler Presser

Quick note on the Loeffler presser...he says Terion Stewart will play Saturday.  He said he "wished he had played last week."  Combined with his comments after the game about Terion being the kind of player who needed to practice to play...it all seems designed to send some kind of message.  Perhaps I am wrong...

Sunday, October 06, 2024

Past and Future Opponent Land

Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (0-6)  Lost to Lafayette

PSU:  (5-0) Beat UCLA

TX A&M: (5-1) Smoked #9 Missouri.  Starting QB is back, they are red hot.

ODU:  (1-4)  Lost to Coastal Carolina

Akron:  (1-5) Played us

NIU: (3-2)  Beat UMass

KSU:  (0-5) Idle

UT:  (4-1) Beat Miami

CMU (3-2) Idle

WMU: (2-3) Beat Ball State. PURE MACTION

BSU (1-4): Lost to WMU.  PURE MACTION.

MU:  (1-4) Lost to UT


Vs. P4   2-20

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Falcons Escape from Akron

OK, the sun came up.  BG had a tough game against Akron....certainly tougher than many people anticipated.  We expected an angry team raging at their performance against ODU and playing the way we envision we can play...can't we get the Texas A&M team against Akron?

Odd note...do you think maybe Penn State and A&M were looking at the logo?

Anyway, perhaps that was unrealistic.  It clearly did not happen.  Let's at least acknowledge this...the first step to getting to Ford Field is not to lose your way out of the race.  It's a little like the Big Dance...not single elimination, but there is a win-and-advance kind of feeling.

So, we gutted out a win we had to have.  And that's worth something.  As Urban says, "we will never apologize for winning."  More later, but we have a guy who wins games on his own and we had enough to get the job done with the opposition in the red zone at the end of the game.  We will take it and go on to next week.

As we do that, though, it's important that we don't take the wrong lesson from winning.  John Wooden talked about the difference between winning and succeeding.

Consider this.

If the ODU QB trips over the 15-yard line as he is running for that big play, we are talking about grit and closing the door.

If the Akron TE catches that 3rd down pass where he was open and the ball was in the right place AND IT BOUNCES OFF HIS HEAD...and we're talking about looking at logos.

I think Coach knows this.  He identified three of the five things I think we need to do to improve.  You have the opportunity to get better after winning.

Unless your players and coaches take the wrong lesson from winning.

See what I mean?

Coach mentioned a few things we need to sharpen up. First and foremost in the running game.  It isn't getting it done and anyone can see that.  Not having Stewart is a problem...sure...but he didn't have any room to run against ODU when he was in there.  We are not getting the run blocking we need.

PFF has us #10 in run blocking.  Reimer doesn't help but it's not the only problem. We just are not blocking effectively.  I feel like you can see it...there isn't a lot of room to run.  Our top blocking lineman is #22 in the MAC, by PFF grade.

We had 154 yards gained rushing.  81 of them came from Fannin, Anderson, Smith and Pegeus.  The backs had 70 on 21 carries.

It's not all the players...we ran 16 plays between the tackles.  7 of them were middle left (left of center, right of guard) for 2.9 yards per carry.  We were over 5 to the left.

Coach said that he thought Stewart felt pretty good by game time but hadn't practiced all week and "he's the kind of player that needs to practice to be effective."  Take that for what you will and let's hope he's back for NIU--but that's only part of the issue.

The second thing was special teams.

BG has had really good special teams...best in the MAC, in fact.  But a critical mistake cost BG 7 points, without which the game is over before the final drive.

Pegues let the ball hit on the 15.  It was rolling pretty fast and probably headed for the end zone.  He decided to try and field it....it glanced off his hand into the end zone where Akron recovered for a TD.  It wasn't the first time this has happened....he's had some nice returns but something similar happened in the Fordham game and I felt like he let a punt hit earlier in this game that he could have caught and saved yardage.

Obviously, that's how a winning effort becomes a losing effort. 

Coach also said that BG needs to keep the QB in the pocket.  I feel like this has been our kryptonite since time immemorial.  I recognize that mobile QBs are a problem for everyone, but this seems to be ridiculous.  Part of it is off the pass rush, but we were gashed on the option plays by the QB as well.  I cannot imagine why there isn't a priority for us.  Especially as it cost us the ODU game and nearly cost us this one.

NIU QB Ethan Hampton is ranked as the top scrambling QB in the MAC...for example.

Now, a couple the coach didn't mention.

We are historically weak at WR.  We have recruited plenty of WRs during the Loeffler era, and had precious little success.  RJ Garcia is due back and that will certainly make a difference.  Our top pure WR is #12 in the MAC.  Of course, Fannin is probably the top overall receiver...and Jamal Johnson is top ten in receiving RBs.  But when you see Akron drop 8 and give Bazelak all day to throw, it's because our WRs don't get open even with that kind of time.

Last thing...last year, BG manufactured its big run on turnovers.  For all the talk of prioritizing getting the ball back we heard last year, BG is #131 in forcing turnovers this season.  We have 2.  Without turnovers, you play with a far thinner margin of error.

In many ways, Fannin won this game almost single-handedly.  He had a 63-yard catch that led to a TD, converted a 3rd and 2 on an end around that led to a FG, and scored the decisive touchdown on a critical 4th and 2 play.  Coach says that was a check at the line by Bazelak, which is interesting.

If football comes down to a couple plays, that was one of them.

Special teams, absent the Pegues mistake, was pretty good.  Akron's punter had a career day.  BG made two FG, including from 45, and had a strong punting game, We gave up literally zero return yards and had one decent KO return.

So, BG picked up an ugly win.  It's hard to imagine it happening 7 more times like that, but who knows?

Thursday, October 03, 2024

Post-Wake-Up Call Preview

  What is their body of work?

Akron, considering that it resides in a football hotbed, has long struggled in MAC football.  In the 6 years since Terry Bowden left, they are 8-51.  Two of those eight have been against Bowling Green.  They have a legit coach who has been successful everywhere, which is the same thing they used to say about Terry Bowden.

Phil Steele picked them #10, tied with Kent and UB. This year, they are 1-4.  They beat Colgate, but lost 3 P4 games (Rutgers, South Carolina and OSU) and lost @OU last week.  They led that one at halftime, were one score away in the 4th quarter but lost 31-10.

Having said that, if BG watches the logo again (or whatever), I suspect Akron is very hungry to experience some success and on homecoming, as well.

BG is a 16.5 point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 24 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is young.

Who are their national leaders?

Avery Brock is #6 in punting.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -3.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

The QB is Ben Finley, who started at NC State, then went to Cal and then came this year to the Zips.  He made 4 starts prior to arriving in Rubbertown.  He is struggling.  His passing efficiency is #9 in the MAC. He completes 58% of his passes and has 7 TDs with 6 INT and only 9.6 per completion.  He has a long run of 16.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are scoring 14 PPG, which is #130 in the country, out of 133. They average 4 yards per play, which is also #130.

Can they run the ball?

No, they are #132, at 2 yards per carry.  It isn't quite that bad.  Jordon Simmons is their lead back.  He's an MSU transfer at 5.2 per carry.  After him, it's a struggle.

Do they pass the ball?

No, they are really struggling.  They are missing Alex Adams, who was All-MAC a couple years ago and has been injured this year and didn't sound like he was playing based on the Akron presser this week.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on only 38% of their plays sack-adjusted.  That's low.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

No.  They convert 29% which is #120.

Do they score in Red Zone?

Very poor at 3.8 points per trip.

Do they protect the QB?

Oh man.  They have been sacked 15 times, but given the high volume of passes, that's only 5%.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are allowing 40 a game, which is #130.  They allow 6.3 yards per play, which is #116.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are #112 in yards per carry allowed. 

Can they be passed on?

They are not good.  They are #124 in team pass efficiency defense.  They allow 62% completions, 12 TD and 2 INT and 13.4 per catch.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are not bad, at #109.

Do they defend in the red zone?

Never saw this before.  18 opponent red zone trips...18 opponent TDs.

Do they pressure the QB?

They get sacks of 5.1% of pass attempts, which is decent.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Their punter has good yardage, but they have allowed 145 return yards (128th) and 2 TDs.  Their punter is #8, their ranking on net punting is 29th.

Punt Return?

They average 2 yards a return with no blocks.

Placekicking? 

He's good.  5 of 6,  4 of 5 over 40 and 49 is a long for the year.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 25, which is typical.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 24, which is typical.

Intangible Miscellany

We heard a lot about a wake up call.  We will find out if BG answered the phone or let it go to voicemail.

Wednesday, October 02, 2024

BG Gets Football Commit

This young man Jahvion Jarmon from Taft HS in Cincinnati. He's a multi-position athlete that appears to project as a D-back.  He has also played WR and he returns kicks.

Did I mention that he returns kicks?  He has returned 8 kicks or punts this season....and he has scored twice.

He also has 2 TDs on 6 receptions.

He's got some speed....he ran a 10.9 100 yd...10.88 was 8th in MAC this year,

He also has an INT.

He's a 3-star with offers from UMass, Miami, Akron and Temple and a couple FCS schools.

Welcome to the Falcons, Jahvion.