Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Eagle Redux

So courtesy of the new MAC 18-game schedule, we now have the opportunity to play two games against some of the West opponents.  Of course, UT and in this case, EMU.

The first meeting was...shall we say....odd.

EMU was 56-51.  The odd thing, as you can see, is that you have two of the worst shooting teams you will ever see.  BG shot 31% and EMU 35%.  What got the game into the stratospheric 50s was that there were 47 fouls called and a total of 58 FTs attempted.  EMU made 70% and BG made 58% and that was the difference.  Holmes had 17 and 7 for BG, and Mike Talley--who has now shredded BG in 2 uniforms--had 14 for the Eagles.

EMU is 3-3 in the MAC, just like BG.  In their last game, they led OU for 39:30 before losing the lead and the game late.  In the MAC, they have won @BG, @CMU and WMU, while losing @Buffalo, Akron and OU.

EMU is 8-3 at home overall, which is hard to believe since their building provides almost no atmosphere.

EMU is just a very good defensive basketball team, just slightly less efficient than BG.  They play a really active 2-3 zone with long guys on the wing.  Very tough.  The difference is that on offense, they are considerably better than BG, even if they are below average in the whole NCAA.  That's going to be the key matchup.  BG jut has to win the battle on the defensive end after a subpar game against Miami.

When breaking down the EMU defense as it stacks up against the BG offense, we see that this is a relatively evenly matched game....EMU's offense seems to end up pretty much where BGs opponents do on the stats, which makes it strange that there is such a spread between their overall efficiency and BG's defensive efficiency.  They do get to the line a lot, but they shoot 67% which is below average.  

Flipping things around...the most interesting thing is on FG shooting.  As poorly as BG shoots, they are playing a team that actually holds shooters even below that.  You are not going to see that too much.  Anyway, EMU is #16 in preventing made FGs, something that is bound to make Bowling Green nervous.  The only reason EMU isn't even better on defense is that they are not good on the boards, which is partly the result of how active their zone is.  Note that they do a nice job generating turnovers, even in a zone.

Offensively, EMU is led by Karrington Ward with 13.8 PPG.  He also leads the team with 6.8 rebounds.  He is only shooting 43%.  Glenn Bryant is scoring 10.3 PPG shooting 56% and 5.3 rebounds.  A key player in their zone is DaShonte Riley, who is averaging 6 rebounds and 2.9 blocks and who knows how many altered shots.  Finally, PG Mike Talley is scoring 10.3 PPG on 38% shooting and 3.5 assists over 2.2 turnovers.

Anyway, all indications are that this game will be a lot like the first one.  Having said that, for BG to win they are going to need to find a way to get some kind of scoring.  The guards have been shooting better and they are going to need it.  And, BG is going to have to play a strong defensive game, because BG is only going to do so well against the EMU defense.

No comments :