Xavier Silas

So, I clearly have a problem with this guy.  In the pre-season, I decided that he was the MAC's most overrated player, and then in the non-conference he appeared to be much more efficient, and then now in the MAC he's back to being overrated again.

I know he is leading the conference in scoring.  Allow me to make my case.

My interest here is what contribution Silas makes to his team winning.  He is leading the MAC in points per game.  The question is, how many of the team's valuable resources has he used up to get there.  He has used up 34% of NIU's possessions.  Only 12 players in D1 have used a higher percentage in their conference games.  So, for a guy using a third of his team's offensive possessions, he probably should be scoring that many points, especially because a lousy player doesn't get that many chances.

But, in general, it makes it hard for a team to win.  You need a certain number of scoring possessions, and this puts extra pressure on the guys who get the other third.

Let's look.

First, as you can see, he did have some pretty efficient games in the non-conference season.  That one spike is against non-D1 competition.

College Basketball Stats

His record in conference games however, is right near the middle.  A team expects to be just over one point per possession, but you'd expect your star player to do better than that.  As you can see, with the exception of one game, he is just above average.  In fact, there are 28 players who are more efficient than he is in the MAC, more than 2 per team.

College Basketball Stats

Finally, I was most surprised to see that he is less efficient in MAC games this year than he was last year.

NCAA Basketball Stats

(Note, that first year is at Colorado).

So, I guess here is the takeaway.  I'm not saying Silas is not a good player, because I think he is.  I just think we have to keep his gaudy and one-dimensional numbers in perspective when comparing him to guys like Mavunga, Bowdrey, Mulkey, Cooper, or even Freeman or McCrea.  You have to measure inputs as well as outputs.

Final note.  In researching this, I looked at BG's poster child for this argument, Martin Samarco.  His offensive rating was .99 his senior year.