Bobcat Preview

So, here it is. After months of activity, the schedule comes to an end tomorrow when the Falcons and the Bobcats do battle on the Anderson Arena hardwood. It is as important a game as has been played in AA in many years, perhaps since we played CMU with a MAC West title on the line in the final home game for John Reimold and Josh Almanson.

Everything remains on the line. Depending on what happens, the Falcons could win the MAC (co-champion, with tie-breaker) or not get a bye through the first round. If we can win, then nothing too bad can happen.

The opponent is OU, the lowest ranked team in the East Division, but with a record that would put them in first place in the West. Let's take a look at the Bobcats.

The first BG-OU game could easily be seen as the turning point in the Falcon's season. We entered that game on a 3-game losing streak and 1-3 in MAC play....and without a road win this season. It didn't look very good.

But the Falcons ground out a 1-point road win at the convo, despite a nearly 2-1 foul disparity and a huge FT disadvantage. OU only shot 26% for the game, and that kept BG in the game, and Clements nailed a jumper with less than a minute left, and the Falcons had the win.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Starting with that game, BG is 9-3 and is now in a position to win the MAC, or at least a share of the title, with a win.

Any conversation about OU has to start with Jerome Tillman, the probable MAC POY. He is leading the MAC in scoring and rebounding, and is a senior at the end of his career. He is an outstanding player.

After him, things get a little rougher, Justin Orr, who is our Coach's nephew, is scoring in double figures and Michael Allen is leading the MAC in assists, though I am always dubious about that statistic.

So, Jerome Tillman vs. the Falcon bigs is flashpoint #1.

Interestingly, while OU has the MAC's leading rebounder, they are the worst rebounding team in the MAC, a significant advantage for the Falcons. OU is second in the MAC in scoring during conference play, however, and has been the MAC's best shooting team in MAC play, in terms of overall %, 3FG% and 3FGs made. (And that INCLUDES their game against BG).

So, Ohio's strong shooting against our defense is flashpoint #2. I think it is safe to say that we need Ohio's final score to start with a 5. Or a 4.

OU is not strong defensively, 9th in the MAC. Teams typically shoot well against them, even from beyond the arc.

And that is flashpoint #3. Can the Falcons find the ability to score against an average Ohio defense. It would be so sweet if the Falcons were able to find the mark tomorrow.

There are a couple more elements to the game--which I think is shaping up to be very intersting.

The first is that OU has won only twice on the road all year. BG has been pretty average at home, but I hope in this big game, we can put home court to work for us.

And finally, it is Senior Day, as Nate Miller, Daryl Clements and Brian Moten take the court in AA for the last time. There are a lot of emotions on this day, and you just hope it provides the Falcons with an intangible edge. In particular, you hope that Nate Miller carries the team on his back, as he has so often this year, as he looks to leave a winning stamp on what has been a very good career.

If the Falcons play our game--getting stops and rebounds--and we get some contribution on the inside against Tillman--I think we can win this game. But I expect it to be a nail-biter, right down to the end.