Havoc.....a four way tie for first. In the East, all the home teams won, though two were taken into overtime.
1. Head-to-head competition
2. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom, regardless of division; versus common opponents, regardless of the number of times played)
3. Coin flip
* Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 1-1 (.500).
BG Head to Head Status:
We win tiebreakers with:
We lose tiebreakers to:
Tiebreakers in Flux:
Ohio (A BG win gives us this tiebreaker)
The lead tiebreaker for the MAC is head to head, and I post here a table of the four top teams in the MAC and how they have fared against each other. You read across for wins and down for losses. There could easily be a three way tie for first in the East, and if that happens, this table will help to determine who would win the tie-breaker. Generally, we have splits here....an asterisk means that there is a still a game to be played in that series, but it doesn't really matter because those two teams cannot end up in a tie.
So, the permutations.
There are eight ways first place can shake out. Buffalo and Miami play each other, and both cannot end up in a tie. Similarly, if BG and Akron lose, then the winner of that game will win the regular season and the top seed.
So, here are the scenarios:
1-2. Buffalo or Miami is only team in four way tie to win.
Bowling Green does not get a bye if Buffalo wins, but does get a bye if Miami wins.
3. Buffalo, BG and Akron win
Bowling Green wins because of a 3-1 record among teams in tie.
4. Buffalo and BG win
Bowling Green wins due to sweep of Buffalo
5. Buffalo and Akron win
Buffalo wins first place. They split season series with Akron, but under this scenario BG and Miami are tied for third. Miami beat BG twice, so they are third. Buffalo would have a sweep over Miami for this to happen, and would take first. BG does not get a bye.
6. Miami, BG and Akron win.
Miami wins first place with 3-1 record. BG does get bye.
7. Miami and BG win
Miami wins due to season sweep over BG
8. Miami and Akron win.
Miami and Akron split their season series. Under this scenario, Bowling Green and Buffalo would be tied for third, but BG swept Buffalo, meaning that Miami's sweep over us gives them the regular season title and #1 seed.
So, to sum up:
1. Of the 8 scenarios, only two have us winning. If we win and Buffalo wins, we are the MAC Champions.
2. If we win, we have a bye.
3. The only way we can lose and not get a bye is if Buffalo beats Miami.
4. Basically, we want Buffalo in the tie somewhere. If we win, we need Buffalo in the tie, if we lose we need Buffalo in that tie, too.
I think this is all accurate, subject to revision later if I am all messed up. But, I think I have it right.