East Division Probabilities

Look, the East Division ain't any great shakes this year. But, if you win it, you get to play in the MAC Title game all the same. With that in mind, a quick analysis of the race.

It would not surprise me if 3 losses wins the division, with a tie breaker. With that in mind, the race is wide, wide open.

Here's the bottom line scenario I would like to offer.

BG wins the remainder of its East games, and loses to NIU and UT (looking for worst case stuff here). We finish with 3 losses.

Akron loses one other MAC game (seems likely).

Each other MAC team would have at least three loses and would lose a tiebreaker with us, meaning that, virtually for certain, we would win the East if this happened.

All losses are not equal. Losing to NIU and UT are one thing, because we don't have to worry about being in a tie-breaker with them. Now, losing to an East opponent could theoretically be bad, but then again, each of those teams has to pretty much run the table, including their cross over games, to even get into a tie breaker.

Buffalo actually could be dangerous. They have two losses, but they have already lost to WMU and CMU, and now finish solely with the East. If they can beat BG in BG, they could realistically run the table and take the division. Falcon fans should be rooting for them to get picked off somewhere between here and there.

Miami still plays Ball State, too.

And, when two East teams play, one of them has to lose...despite how it might seem. And if teams quit playing consistently (ie, one team one week and the other team the other week), that will weed teams out, too.

Its a big enough challenge for us to win each week, and that's what we should probably be focused on, starting with Miami. But the path is clear...we can lose two more games, as long as they are the RIGHT two games, and get to play for the MAC Championship.