Saturday, October 27, 2007

All About the Bobcats

Reviewing the season:

09/01/07 vs. Gardner-Webb TV Athens, Ohio W, 36-14

Nothing win over an average I-AA team.

09/08/07 at Louisiana-Lafayette Lafayette, La. W, 31-23

Nearly lost to a 1-6 team from the Sun Belt.

09/15/07 at Virginia Tech TV Blacksburg, Va. L, 28-7

This game is not a total blow out, playing a good team in a really tough environment.

09/22/07 vs. Wyoming TV Athens, Ohio L, 34-33

This game was in Athens, but they played a pretty good Wyoming team pretty tough. This game is where I think they started to make people wonder if they weren't turning it around.

09/29/07 vs. Kent State TV Athens, Ohio L, 33-25

At home, you just don't want to lose this game. This is a common opponent with us, and we can see the difference between our two games.

10/06/07 at Buffalo Amherst, N.Y. L, 31-10

Now, let's be clear. Losing to Buffalo is not the humiliation it once was. In fact, the Bulls are the only undefeated team in the East. I'm not sure losing 31-10 to them is quite what anyone expects.

10/13/07 vs. Eastern Michigan TV Athens, Ohio W, 48-42

I saw parts of this game. Eastern is awful again this year, and this win--though a win--is nothing to be proud of.

10/20/07 at Toledo TV Toledo, Ohio L, 43-40

This is a game OU should have won, but they handed it away in the last minutes with a dumb fumble. It was on the road--and OU hasn't won at the Glass Bowl since LBJ was in the White House--but UT isn't very good this year. And the Bobcats lost.

So, you have a 3-5 team, and the three wins come against three of the worst teams in college football. You have a decent loss against Wyoming...and then losses in the MAC.

Let me tell you what else you have. Points allowed. By the basket full. In fact, the last time this season they allowed fewer than 30 points was against Virginia Tech, and they've been getting worse while the season rolls along. A look at MAC stats suggests they are easier to run on than pass on (something UT found too), so we need to have Willie and Macon geared up and ready to go.

Their QBing is not good. Brad Bower, a transfer from Illinois, is completing 56% of his passes with 7 TDs and 10 Ints. Not an exceptional ratio. Their other QB is Theo Scott, whose passing numbers are slightly worse and rating is worse. He does appear to be the "running QB."

Two players shine for OU. One is Kalvin McRae, their two time All-MAC TB. He's averaging just south of five yards a carry, and is simply a very good football player. Falcon fans had better get themselves adjusted....he's going to get his yards. Live with it. He also has 13 (yes, that's right) 13 touchdowns. We can hope to hold that total down a little.

The other impact player is Chris Garrett, a big return man who killed as a Freshmen last season. He has one KO return this year for a TD, but has been slowed on punts. We pretty much avoided him last season.

Their kicker is real good, too. 12-12 FGS, with four over 40. Punting appears to be serviceable.

Their TO ratio is -6.

This is a team we should beat, if we are even close to being what we think we are. We need to move and control the ball, force some turnovers, and get out to a big lead to held force them to pass. But if we play our game, we should be able to win this one.

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