A Chance to Turn the Tide

And, like it does every season, there's another chance to turn the tide.  Sooner or later, there won't be, but for now there is.  BG has had a couple bad games in a row--for the first time since early December.  That time, they turned it around.  And this time they can, too.  Whether it will happen is a different matter.  But what happened wasn't a mirage.  But, it's late, everybody's tired.  You gotta dig deep and rally.

Kent enters the Stroh tied for 4th in the MAC with CMU.  They have a lot to play for.  They are battling for a bye, too, and they don't have a two-game lead to protect.  In fact, they lose to CMU in the tie-breaker, so they're actually down a game.  I'd expect Kent to be ready to battle.

Which means it won't be easy.  But it isn't easy.  Easy is what we have had most of time over the past 17 years.

It's going to be a good one.

So, the two teams opened the MAC season together.  BG came in with a few wins in a row against lower ranked non-conference opponents and we were cautiously encouraged and then BG went into Kent and popped the Flashes by 22, a pretty big statement result.  Kent was kind of limping along at 4-3, won 4 of their next 5 to get to 8-4, then lost @CMU and @UB.  They beat OU at the MACC in their last game.

Stakes are the same.  BG win gets them a bye.  Same with a CMU loss to UT in Mt. Pleasant.  But, if BG's going to do anything in the tournament, the quality of play has to turn around.  It needs to start with defense.  BG has been awful against poor defensive teams in the last two games.  Now they are playing a good offensive team.

In the first game, BG held the Flashes to .86 points per possession, their worst offensive performance at home all season.  Something similar would be just what the doctor ordered.

Kent is #4 in the MAC in offense.  Not as good as BG has been, but better than Miami and OU are.  The good news is that Kent is 10th in defense, so if BG can also revert to their previous offense, that would help too.  If they get stops, I think it will happen.  Having said that, BG needs to get back to moving the ball around and not just jacking up easy 3s.

One thing is interesting.  Kent has scored 1,091 points and allowed 1,124.  It isn't too common for teams to have that kind of negative differential and have a 9-6 record.  They don't have close losses.  They also lost to EMU by 34.   Anyway, you don't see that too often.

So, how does Kent score like they do.  It's not shooting....also unusual.  They are 9th in #FG%.  They are 8th in 3FG% and 7th in 2FG%.  They take a pretty normal number of 3FGs.  So, it isn't shooting.  They are very good at taking care of the ball, though, and 2nd in the MAC at offensive rebounding.  BG has fallen to 3rd in defensive rebounding, but they are going to have to do as well as they were doing earlier to bring this one home.  They are pretty average at getting to the line, and are #5 in the MAC in making FTs.

So. flipping it around, Kent is last in the MAC in defending the shot.  That's #10 against the 3 and #11 against the 2.  BG just has to make shots against these guys.  They stay alive by being 3rd in the MAC in forcing turnovers.  They aren't great on the defensive boards and are 11th in allowing their opponents to the line.

They are led by Jaylin Walker, the MAC's leading scorer.  He scores 20 PPG, though shooting 35% and 32%, so it's taking some shots.  He also averages 5.3 RPG and is very good from the FT line.  It's a big drop to their second scorer.  Philip Whittington scores 10.9 PPG shooting 55% and 8 RPG.  Antonio Williams is scoring 10.8 PPG on 51% shooting.  Jalen Avery leads the team with 38 assists over 7 turnovers.

So there it is.  Big game coming down the pike Friday.  Hope we have a decent crowd.  Hope we rally.  We are 100% capable of it.

Rough Night at the Stroh

Tuesday night was no fun at all at the Stroh.

But let's not get carried away.

For the second straight game, BG came out and laid a complete egg against a team that our previous results would suggest we should beat.  It ended up with a blow out win for Miami, who celebrated in the Stroh Center locker room like they had won the MAC title.

It was frustrating and very disappointing.  I know Coach felt the same way...his post-game interview was straight out DOWN.  You could barely hear him.

And yes, I know we ended up last year with a long losing streak.  And I know that we have a tough three-game stretch to finish the season out.  If it plays out that way, yeah, that would be really disappointing.  But, let's wait until it happens.

And we could still get hot in Cleveland.

I'm not giving up on the team though.  When you see that a team has the ability to win, then you believe they can win.  The converse is true too.  I give you the football team.

I'm not even going to throw out that BG was picked to finish last in the MAC.  That's fine but we have probably advanced past that.  But they were 11-2--something no BG team had ever done.  They hit a cold patch, which happens in a long season.

They've had a great year.  They are having a great year.  I still believe they can finish strong.

It won't happen with BG playing as they have the last two games.  No doubt about that.  Coach took the blame for the loss, which is interesting.  Sometimes coaches do that, so hopefully, it works.

Even worse, Wiggins said post-game he had seen a return of the guys not staying together and blaming each other.  I will say that I saw a couple things like that from our seats in the second half.

That needs to be addressed.  Beyond that, the defense has to get solved.  Both of those are things coach can fix.  The last time we lost two in a row, Coach reached deep and rallied the team and it needs to happen again.  Hopefully, he gets some leadership from the team.

In summary:  Tuesday was no fun.  If BG rallies Friday, it will be fun.

I said after the OU game that if BG played the same level of defense that they did in Athens, they would not beat anyone.  In fact, against Miami they played worse defense.  And you still can't beat anyone like that.  OU scored 1.14 points per possession.  Miami scored 1.19.  It was BG's worst defensive performance of the season.

Again, if that doesn't get fixed, we're going out in a sad way.  I just think we will do better.

On offense, BG actually had a decent, winnable game at OU.  That didn't happen here.  BG had only 1 point per possession, which is a level they have not won at this year.

The key was shooting.  BG had an EFG% of 44%, their worst since the UT game.  BG shot 46% from 2FG...which isn't great...and then was 8 of 28 for 29% from 3FG.  That's bad on a couple measures.  The % is awful, but the number shot just make it worse.  Coach noted that BG is shooting too many 3FGs, and that would certainly be true.  A lot of no-movement possessions followed by a 3...as opposed to ball movement/penetration sets that lead to 3s.

Miami shot great.  They made 61% EFG, with 52% from 2FG and 46% from 3FG on 33 attempts.  It was BG's worst volume game against the 3 since the Cleveland State game.  Shudder.

BG narrowly won the turnover battle, though I would have sworn that wasn't true in real-time.  BG narrowly won the rebounding battle and definitely got to the line more.  BG shot 19 FTs and Miami shot only 10.  However, Miami made 9 of those 10 and BG made only 13 of 19.

The individual numbers are pretty grim, too.  Turner scored 14, but on 5 of 15 and 2 of 8 shooting.  That's a lot of shots for 14 points.  He also had 4 turnovers.  Wiggins also had 14, but it was on 6 of 12 shooting, which is OK but not great.  He had 11 rebounds and 1 turnover.  Frye scored 13, on 4 of 10 and 3 of 7 shooting, which is also rough.  Plowden had 11 on 4 of 10 and 2 of 7 shooting and blocked four shots.

BG is also not getting the bench scoring it was previously.

Just, a very rough patch.  It can be like last year, or the team can rally and play like they did for the first 13 games.  Let's hope they can turn it around.

Here's the way it stands right now.  BG no longer controls its own destiny.  Even if BG won out, it would need either Miami or OU to beat UB to give BG the title.  BG leads CMU and Kent by just 2 games.  A BG win would put the bye issue to bed, as would a CMU loss to UT in Mt. Pleasant.

It's not as good as it has been this year, but it's pretty much better than anything we have seen since the 2002 team.  Let's not overlook the year we've had.  And let's root for the boys to turn the bus around Friday.

Redhawk Redux

So BG gets a re-match against the Miami Redhawks.  This is the first time this year that BG is playing a team they lost to earlier.  And, it will be the only time.

BG had a poor game in Millett the first time around.  Miami led by 9 or more for the last 12 minutes of the game.  BG played good defense but played awful offense.  They only shot 30% on 2FGs, turned the ball over, didn't get offensive boards and didn't get to the line.  It was BG's worst offensive game of the season at the time and it still is.

So, let's look at how things have shaped up since that game.  Miami is 6-8 in MAC play.  They started 0-4, won their next three and seemed to be getting hot but then they are 3-4 since then.  They have won 3 of the last 5 at the Stroh, even while they struggled as much as we have.

So, here's how it shapes up.  You can see the key element.  First, if BG defends the way they did Friday night in Athens, they won't beat anyone.  Moving on though, BG is #4 in defense and Miami is #8 in offense, and those work out to .99 points per possession both ways.  The test will be on the other end.  BG remains a very effective offensive team and Miami's defense is 1.01, which is right about MAC average.  (The MAC is ranked 25th out of 32 conferences in offensive efficiency).

Looking at Miami on offense, they are just below average.  If BG plays the defense we are used to, they should be able to keep the Redhawks off the board.  They are 8th in the MAC in shooting, 9th in turnovers and 10th in offensive rebounding.  Their strongest area is getting to the FT line, which they lead the MAC in....they are 6th in FT shooting. 

The shoot a lot of 3s...they are 2nd in the MAC in the percentage of shots from 3FG.  But, they only make 33% of them--just below the MAC average--and 8th in 2FG%.

Flipping it around, Miami is decent defending the shot, at #6 in the conference.  They don't force turnovers, but they are very good on the defensive boards (1st in the MAC) and give up an average number of FT attempts.  They are OK defending the 3FG....#7 in the MAC, but they are 3rd in defending the 2FG.  This is a decent defensive team and BG will need to make shots to win, which hopefully will spin off good defense on the other end.

Miami is led by Nike Sabandie, who is scoring an inefficient 14.5 PPG on 37% and 34% shooting.  Bam Bowman is their other double-figure scorer at 10.4 on 43% and 35% shooting---again, not great.  He leads the team with 5.9 rebounds.

Miami plays a very deep rotation.  No player averages 30 minutes a game, which brings their overall numbers down.  Darrien Ringo is scoring 9.3 PPG, but leads the MAC in Assist rate and steals%, but plays only 28 minutes.  He has a lot of turnovers.  Dalonte Brown also scores 9 a game with 5 rebounds and Jalen Adaway gets 5.8 RPG.

So, BG gets the chance to get back on the right side of the ledger and I have a pretty good feeling that it will happen.  This is a game BG should be able to win if they play well, as they typically have at the Stroh.  Let's see if it happens.

MAC Reset

Ok, time for the reset.  BG would have clinched home court with a win at OU, or with CMU losing, but neither happened. 

Two more teams are eliminated...coming into the weekend, we had these guys out.

WMU
OU
NIU
Ball State
EMU

Miami lost to Akron and now has 8 losses and can't catch BG, which is slightly better because they had beaten BG and would have ended up with the tiebreaker.  Akron can still tie BG and under that scenario they would have split the series but I am told the other tiebreaker works out in BG's favor. 

So that's 7.  BG only needs eight.  A win for BG or a CMU loss @EMU would eliminate the Chips and that would be that.  Also, by the way, a Kent loss against OU would clinch the bye for BG.

If you're following for the overall title, actually BG had that one to burn.  BG still controls their results.  If BG wins out, they would finish #1 in the MAC.  That would require winning @Akron and @Buffalo, but winning a championship is supposed to be hard.

Defeat at the Convo

So, the story isn't too complicated.

BG went down to Athens to play a team that had lost six straight and was stinging from a program-worst defeat to Buffalo on Tuesday.  Despite all that, they had 6,000+ in the Convo and got the place rocking like the old days.

Meanwhile, BG decided to "leave the defense in Bowling Green" in Coach Huger's words, and revert to some bad habits on offense down the stretch, and the combination of all that was a 92-87 defeat in OT for the Falcons.

It was certainly frustrating to watch.

Having said that, I cannot understand getting upset with the guys.  Unless I misread it, after Tuesday they were the only team in our program's history to be 11-2 in MAC play.  The ONLY one.  They certainly played poorly--their worst since December 5--but keep that in perspective, too.

Their worst since December 5.

Lastly, I remind you of the words of The Late Evil Genius, Charlie Coles, after BG beat Miami when BG was at home on a 7-game losing streak and Miami was in 1st place...the Cole Magner game...

“I think their need for a win was far more than our need for a win,” Miami coach Charlie Coles said. “We came in here in first place and they had lost seven games in a row, so there is no way you can have kids as hungry as their kids were.”

It happens.  Here's the thing.  It can also be a springboard.  You see that all the time.  Team loses a game like this, refocuses and brings it home toward the end.  Whether that happens remains to be seen, but plenty of teams have made good use of a loss like this.  We're still on track for a bye, and could possibly clinch it today with other losses, so let's just have a cup of coffee and look forward to Tuesday.

If you watched the game, your eyes did not deceive you.  BG played poorly, especially on defense.  They allowed 1.13 points per possession to the worst offensive team in the MAC.  No way to minimize that, it was not good.  It was BG's worst defensive performance since the Cleveland State game, and to be candid this felt as frustrating as that.  Over the past five years, BG has won only 5 D1 games allowing 1.13 or more.  It's a losing performance.

OU had an EFG% of 64%, which is the most allowed by BG this year.  They shot 59% from 2FG and 50% from 3FG.  You just won't win that way. That's their second-worst against the 2FG and 3rd worst against the 3FG this year.  It actually could have been worse.  OU is the worst FT shooting team in the MAC and got to the line 32 times and only made 19.

BG's offense was reasonable, at 1.07 points per possession.  It is the best offense BG has played in a losing effort this season.  Yes, BG shot poorly, with 46% EFG (ok from 2FG--50%--but terrible from 3FG), but took excellent care of the ball, did a good job on offensive rebounding and made 20 of 29 from the line.  Odd as it might seem, BG wins with numbers like that, even if they aren't ideal.

Individually, there are a few things.

First, Wiggins went over 1,000 rebounds, giving him 1,000 rebounds and 1,000 points for his career.  Dylan Frye also became BG's 47th player to score 1,000 points.  Congrats to them both and more on that kind of stuff tomorrow.

Wiggins had his best offensive game in MAC play, scoring 20 on 7 of 9 shooting.  He also made 6 of 8 FTs, added 14 rebounds and only 2 turnovers.

Dylan Frye scored 18, though it required a high volume of shots. He shot 7 of 18 and 3 of 10.  Justin Turner also had a rough night, scoring 15 but on 5 of 17 and 1 of 4 shooting with 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 4 turnovers.  I felt like Kirk really played Justin tough.

Antwon Lillard had 14, same story though, shooting 3 of 7 and 2 of 6, though he did make a couple key 3s in the second half.  He added 5 rebounds.

Caleb Fields had 10 points, shooting 4 of 9 and 0 of 4, but adding 5 steals.  Young man is going to be a very solid player in our program if we can continue to develop him.

Plowden added 6 rebounds in 20 minutes.

So, that's that.  A tough night all around at the Convo.  What can't happen is losing this game twice.  BG has bounced back well, and we'll look to see that again on Tuesday at the Stroh.

To the Convo We Go.

Next up are the OU Bobcats.

Rough times in Athens.  The Bobcats are a traditional basketball power in the MAC, with a huge fan base and a great track record of support.  John Groce took them to the sweet 16 and was replaced by Jim Christian, who won 70% of his games.  The last coach to leave the school with a losing record was in 1989.  When Phillips replaced Christian, he had been an unqualified success at North Dakota State and won 20 games in his second and third years.

The next two years are not so pretty.  They are 10-21 in MAC play over the past two years, have lost six in a row, including a record loss by 47 points to Buffalo in their last game.

I searched online and people were demanding his head last year and it hasn't gotten any better.  Phillips is in the last year of his contract, as well, making it very precarious indeed.

Last year was tough with injuries but this year he has guys in the lineup, it's just going really poorly.  I'd suspect that Phillips is a pretty good coach but there is probably a tough situation, as it relates to an extension.

The two teams played in early January and BG won easily, by 19 points.  BG shot 57% and 48% on the way to the win.

So, here's the way things stack up.  OU is the worst offensive team in the MAC and they are 11th in defense.  BG is 2nd in offense and third in defense.  In fact, for the year OU is #316 in the nation in offense, and their MAC offense is worse than their entire season.

So, how does that happen?  Well, they are 11th in shooting....that's a good/bad start.  They are 8th in taking care of the ball, 9th on the offensive boards and 10th in getting to the line.  As noted, BG's defense is very good, and when BG plays defense they have held their opponents to roughly the same average OU scores, across the board.  So, if this rolls as the records suggest, these numbers should be how it plays out.  OU takes an average number of 3FGS, but is 10th in making them and 9th at 2FG.  They are also last in FT shooting, making 55% in MAC games, which is just awful.  For the year, their FT shooting is one of the 5 worst in the nation.

Flipping it around, we also see that BG's offense is about as successful as the OU defense is unsuccessful.  They are 10th in defending the shot.  They do force some turnovers but are just average on the defensive boards and at keeping teams off the line.  They are last in allowing 3FG%, which is a good matchup for BG.  They are 6th in defending the 2FG%.  Same thing here.  If things shape up as they have, this is what you will get.  OU will need to do something to change this dynamic to win....which does happen.

Jason Carter is their leading scorer, with 15 PPG.  He's shooting 45% and 39%, so decent.  He leads the team with 7.3 RPG.  Teyvion Kirk is scoring about 13 PPG but shooting 40% and 20%.  They have no other double figure scorers.

So, look, on paper BG should win this game.  Having said that, just when you think one of these sneaks up on you.  With a win, BG clinches a bye.  They should win this one, even at the Convo...and let's watch to see if they take care of business.

MAC Reset

So here's how things stand.  And they stand in a good way for BG.  After last night's win over Akron, BG is 11-2, tied for first.  BG can finish no worse than 11-7.

As such, five teams are now eliminated out of the eight BG needs to eliminate.

WMU
OU
NIU
Ball State
EMU

Miami could still tie BG, and to do so they'd have to sweep the season series, so that's not gone completely, but would require Miami to win out and BG to lose out.

Akron could still tie BG, and to do so they'd have to split the season series, and be 1-1 against UB just as BG would be, so I don't know where that would leave anyone, but it is very unlikely to happen.

Which leaves CMU.  They can still finish with 12 wins, under the same scenario and they would beat BG.  However, one game and they are down to 11 or BG is up to 12 and BG beat them, so that would be that.

In other words, a win Friday against OU and BG will have clinched the bye.

Imagine that.

I still expect UT to finish in 3rd.  Their West-oriented schedule is just much easier.  They play only one team with a winning record whereas Kent is at UB and BG.

Which leaves BG dueling with UB for that top spot.  I expect UB to win out, only because their tougher games are at home and they have Miami and OU on the road.  For BG to matchup with them for the title in the finale, I suspect they will have to match that.  But who knows?