A Chance to Turn the Tide

And, like it does every season, there's another chance to turn the tide.  Sooner or later, there won't be, but for now there is.  BG has had a couple bad games in a row--for the first time since early December.  That time, they turned it around.  And this time they can, too.  Whether it will happen is a different matter.  But what happened wasn't a mirage.  But, it's late, everybody's tired.  You gotta dig deep and rally.

Kent enters the Stroh tied for 4th in the MAC with CMU.  They have a lot to play for.  They are battling for a bye, too, and they don't have a two-game lead to protect.  In fact, they lose to CMU in the tie-breaker, so they're actually down a game.  I'd expect Kent to be ready to battle.

Which means it won't be easy.  But it isn't easy.  Easy is what we have had most of time over the past 17 years.

It's going to be a good one.

So, the two teams opened the MAC season together.  BG came in with a few wins in a row against lower ranked non-conference opponents and we were cautiously encouraged and then BG went into Kent and popped the Flashes by 22, a pretty big statement result.  Kent was kind of limping along at 4-3, won 4 of their next 5 to get to 8-4, then lost @CMU and @UB.  They beat OU at the MACC in their last game.

Stakes are the same.  BG win gets them a bye.  Same with a CMU loss to UT in Mt. Pleasant.  But, if BG's going to do anything in the tournament, the quality of play has to turn around.  It needs to start with defense.  BG has been awful against poor defensive teams in the last two games.  Now they are playing a good offensive team.

In the first game, BG held the Flashes to .86 points per possession, their worst offensive performance at home all season.  Something similar would be just what the doctor ordered.

Kent is #4 in the MAC in offense.  Not as good as BG has been, but better than Miami and OU are.  The good news is that Kent is 10th in defense, so if BG can also revert to their previous offense, that would help too.  If they get stops, I think it will happen.  Having said that, BG needs to get back to moving the ball around and not just jacking up easy 3s.

One thing is interesting.  Kent has scored 1,091 points and allowed 1,124.  It isn't too common for teams to have that kind of negative differential and have a 9-6 record.  They don't have close losses.  They also lost to EMU by 34.   Anyway, you don't see that too often.

So, how does Kent score like they do.  It's not shooting....also unusual.  They are 9th in #FG%.  They are 8th in 3FG% and 7th in 2FG%.  They take a pretty normal number of 3FGs.  So, it isn't shooting.  They are very good at taking care of the ball, though, and 2nd in the MAC at offensive rebounding.  BG has fallen to 3rd in defensive rebounding, but they are going to have to do as well as they were doing earlier to bring this one home.  They are pretty average at getting to the line, and are #5 in the MAC in making FTs.

So. flipping it around, Kent is last in the MAC in defending the shot.  That's #10 against the 3 and #11 against the 2.  BG just has to make shots against these guys.  They stay alive by being 3rd in the MAC in forcing turnovers.  They aren't great on the defensive boards and are 11th in allowing their opponents to the line.

They are led by Jaylin Walker, the MAC's leading scorer.  He scores 20 PPG, though shooting 35% and 32%, so it's taking some shots.  He also averages 5.3 RPG and is very good from the FT line.  It's a big drop to their second scorer.  Philip Whittington scores 10.9 PPG shooting 55% and 8 RPG.  Antonio Williams is scoring 10.8 PPG on 51% shooting.  Jalen Avery leads the team with 38 assists over 7 turnovers.

So there it is.  Big game coming down the pike Friday.  Hope we have a decent crowd.  Hope we rally.  We are 100% capable of it.