Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Topper Preview

So, the Battle of Bowling Green resumes tomorrow night, as the Falcons play the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, a team which hails from Bowling Green KY and the people who have been getting our mail all these years.  This used to be a huge rivalry, when Harold Anderson and EA "Red" Diddle had some legendary duels.  In fact, for a while anyway both schools have their arena named for these coaches.

The trademark for the Hilltoppers is to wave a red towel.  They are known informally as the Toppers.



Which means that our opponents are the Toppers and their hero is Red Diddle.  

Admit it.  You laughed.

So, what can we expect from the Hilltoppers?  They are 3-5, but that's against a really good schedule.  They beat St. Joe by 28 in Philly and Hofstra in Puerto Rico (both nice wins) and got a win over Alabama A&M (a team with an RPI about where ours is).  Meanwhile, they have lost to Minnesota and Davidson in PR, South Carolina, @Vanderbilt and @Memphis...which are all teams at least in the top half of D1 this year.

They are an upbeat team.  At 77 possessions per game, they play at the 17th highest pace in D1 hoops.  This team plays even faster than Duquesne does, and we saw what happened there.

They are a strong team on the attack, scoring .94 points per possession.  They are not so good on defense, and allow .97 points per possession on that end.  A summary of how they compare to the Falcons is listed below.



Note that WKU generated those stats against the #49 schedule and BG's is ranked around 300.

The Top Toppers are Juan Patillo who is averaging a double-double and has had 5 this year, and Steffphon Pettigrew (13.9 ppg) and Serio Kerusch (13.4 ppg/6.9 rpg).  They only have one big man who is eligible, and that's Cliff Dixon, who is 6'10" and playing 21 semi-productive minutes a game.

This team was 21-13 last season and did not get a post-season bid.   Still, this is a very tough test for us. We will see if we are playing better.  When Davidson "held" them to 63 possessions, and they were able to beat the Toppers, so we're going to have to do some tempo control, I would think.   

The other things?  We need to play very good defense, especially in transition, take care of the ball, and it might not kill us to hit a few shots.  The local press in BG KY has been bemoaning the turnovers in the last two games.  Given their tempo, their TO% is pretty reasonable, but it has been high the last couple of games.  So, if we picked up some possessions that way, it would be a good thing.

If we keep the tempo down, make some shots, and hit some FTs, we might have a shot.  On paper, WKU is a clear favorite.  It would certainly be nice to see our improving team pick up a win for their efforts.

Monday, December 06, 2010

Final Draft Blogpoll for the regular season

 


News on Falcon Verbals

Well, with a little break in the action, it is probably a good opportunity to check in on some of the news from our verbal recruits, as reported in the media.  So far as I know, there are 7 known verbals this year, which can be found in the sidebar to the left.  Coach Clawson said in his year end presser that we are looking for guys for specific needs, which might account for these numbers being lower than in the past.  I'm confident we can recruit, and while we didn't have a good year, teams almost seem to recruit better in the MAC off a bad year than off a good year.

Coach Clawson says we want to recruit a QB every year, and this year's QB verbal is Matt Johnson of Bishop McDevitt HS in PA.  They are having a huge season, as is Matt.  They just won the District 3-AAA crown, and he had a big game.  Note...

“Last year, four interceptions wasn’t the way I wanted to go out,” said Johnson, who completed 18 of 20 passes. “I made a promise to myself, if I was ever fortunate enough to get this opportunity again I was determined to capitalize on it.”

Johnson, a pure leader, simply would not allow himself or fellow seniors Jameel Poteat, Sean Barowski, Tony Harris and Justen Garlic — all starters a year ago — to come up short on this big stage again.

“Just to see the reaction on the guys faces meant so much to me,” Johnson said. “It was the worst feeling in the world on this field a year ago. Now it feels so great to be here.”

But Johnson was the part of the equation Cocalico could not provide an answer for — particularly on third down.

Thanks to their strong run defense, the Eagles forced Bishop McDevitt into third-and-long seven times in the opening three quarters.

Each and every time Johnson delivered.

The senior was 7-for-7 on third down, throwing for 145 yards and three of his four touchdowns.

At this level, it doesn’t get any better than that.

“We had him in some third downs and long, and he came through,” Cocalico coach Dave Gingrich said. “I was thinking ‘he can’t do this every time can he?’ He did a great job avoiding pressure and buying time.

“Matt Johnson was the big difference in the game.”

If you read the story, you'll see that he ran over to celebrate with his Mom, who has been fighting cancer this year.

Mancrush alert.

Julian Campenni is a d-lineman from the Wyoming Valley in PA, which is near Wilkes-Barre. Campenni was named the small school defensive player of the year by the local paper.  In an all-star game, he was credited (along with another player) for shutting the opposition attack down.  He had 7 tackles and a blocked kick in a key title game and finished with 88 tackles, 10 for loss, 5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles for the season. 

Zach Colvin of Illinois is a D-end who we have high hopes for.  He was once committed to Illinois but they withdrew their offer.  He was his area's most valuable player.

"Football is in my family and I think it's fun. My grandpa (John) and my uncle (Jeff) both played in college and then professionally for the Detroit Lions," Colvin said recently in an interview with the MDH. "My dad has also coached for 10 years at Lockport, Joliet West and Lincoln-Way, so football means a lot to my family."

Here's what his coach said.

"He's an outstanding kid ... a coachable kid. He's also mature and when he spoke, people listened," Kooi said. "He was a leader of the football team and in our high school and he is going to be sorely missed next year."

Alex Huettel of Pickerington is all-metro and second-team Division I all-state.  His team was 6-4 and missed making the playoffs by one game.

Update:  Cooper and Colvin visited BG and sound like they came back solidified after being nervous about the 2-10 record.  Cooper says he feels better about the program.

MAC and Sun Belt to settle who's last once and for all

So Bowl Season comes to the MAC....and we will once and for all settle the question of our ages....

Who's the lowest conference in the FBS.

Of course, we know that bowl games have spread promiscuously...so much so that any team with one leg and six wins gets invited.

Oh.  Yeah.  Sorry Temple.

Meantime, four MAC teams did get in.  One of them will have what, on paper, appears to be an attractive matchup.  That's NIU heading to the Blue Turf to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs, a very high quality team that always plays a very tough schedule.  Sadly, even that matchup has the potential to be tainted as the Jerry Kill is reportedly leaving DeKalb to coach the Minnesota Golden Gophers.  Minny's not in a bowl game, so I guess Kill could finish the year with NIU, but who knows what will happen.  (Update:  Kill will not coach the Huskies in the H-Bowl).

The other MAC teams have been aligned with teams from the Sun Belt.

  • UT will play Florida International (6-6) in the Pizza Bowl
  • OU will play Troy (7-5) in the New Orleans bowl.
  • Miami will play Middle Tennessee (6-6) in the Godaddy.com Bowl.
I know it is good to get people into post-season play, but on a global level, this is just discouraging.  The fact that all 3 of these teams made the bowls ahead of an 8-4 Temple team is one disappointing thing.  I know that the NCAA changed the rules and we had to be ready to expect that the MAC would get fewer bowl teams than in the past, as teams like 6-6 Clemson were now able to move forward.

But the real disappointment is just the intramural feel the whole thing has...a kind of sit at the kid's table mentality that is humbling...like war breaking out between two former Soviet republics no one ever heard of before.  It is probably reflective of how things are...but it would have been nice to get at least a half-decent matchup.

The MAC has nothing to gain.  Either we lose and lend credence to our decline toward the Sun Belt conference, or we win, and get no credit at all.

Sunday, December 05, 2010

Clawson Wrap Up Presser

I finally got the time to listen to Coach Clawson's season-ending presser. I strongly recommend that anyone who is interested in our football program listen to what I think was a wide-ranging and candid appraisal of where we are what we need to be winners.  Of course, I've got some of my own ideas, but the most important one is to invest 40 minutes listening to an experienced coach and proven winner talk about what he is doing.

The first thing you will come away with is that Coach Clawson has the right objective.  He wants to build a program that can win consistently in the MAC.  That's no small objective.  No one has done it in the MAC since Marshall.   I strongly applaud this goal.

The theme was that sometimes you take a step back before you go two steps forward.  Apparently, the AD told Coach Clawson that he had a chance in 2009 and that 2010 was going to be a "challenge."

The reason?  Simple numbers.  We played most of this season with 44 scholarship players, which is a pretty shockingly low number.  I think we see all those guys on the sideline and we think that there are tons of players, but we played with a pretty small number.  There were even road games when we travelled below the maximum.

It works like this....we had 76 players on scholarship.  We decided to redshirt 19 of them.  We had 5 season-ending injuries, and 8 "recruiting mistakes."  (Falcon fans across the nation go scurrying to their roster to try and figure out who he is talking about.  I've got at least 2 ideas, but just a hint...where a player has been passed by walk-ons and JUCO transfers and players who switched positions, you can assume that's who Coach is talking about).

The good news is we are fixing this.  Attrition in the program has slowed down.  Among the players who should have been 3rd, 4th and 5th year players, 31 of them left the program prior to Coach getting here.

He said that he faced similar situations at Fordham and Richmond, and went on to build winners.  There is "no excuse not to win at BG and win big."

Amen, brutha.  I like the sound of that...win big.

He said that the staff considered patching holes with a lot of JUCO players, but decided to build a sustainable foundation rather than a one-year fix.  (My note:  Temple used to try and patch holes with JUCO players and they didn't get better until they started to get HS players.)

He said we have changed the culture.  Attrition is down, and the APR is up.  He tells the players to stay off of lists...the lists of guys who miss class, lifting, conditioning, etc.  The lists are getting shorter.

We played  23 true or redshirt freshmen on our 2-deep, at some times.  Those players got some experience.  He did make one point that I think Falcon fans forget, which is that this team will continue to be young next season, just not as young.

We played last year with 48 scholarship players, but we got lucky.  We had a little more experience and stayed relatively healthy.

One thing that I thought as I was listening was that the APR penalty is a lot more deadly than you expect.  At the time, it sounded like something that was less serious, but football is a game with delayed impacts, and you the shortages of players actually don't appear until down the road.

As I listened to this, I began to think about Coach Brandon.  When he was fired a lot of people decried the culture of college football when a guy with a "winning" record could have been fired.  Some of these people were professional journalists.  These issues--the attrition, the APR issues--are examples of exactly the kind of coaching malpractice that was going on.  The program was being run into the ground in slow motion.  Thank god we didn't wait until actually crashed and went 2-10 to make the change.

We should expect to be better next year with better numbers and more experience.  But we need more good players.  He said that only 2 teams have fewer all-conference players over the past few years than we have.  You need 3-5 difference makers on both sides of the ball, and we just don't have the talented playmakers.

He reviewed the defense.  He said the front was improved.  We did not cover or tackle in the "back end."  What we are lacking is (and this was something he talked at length about) is internal competition. Until that player in the secondary knows that someone will take his job if he does not bring it everyday, you don't get better as a team.

He has some other nice tidbits.  He said that DJ Lynch, a true FR D-lineman who was injured in an all-star game was looking very good in late practices and was someone they could have played.  Similarly, Gabe Martin had gotten onto the 2-deep but broke his hand.  Anyway, the point is that guys like this create internal competition that makes  everyone better.

On the offensive line, we need to add through recruiting.  We will be better next year, and hopefully healthier, but we need to continue to add guys through the recruiting process.

He said Alex Bayer has the chance to be a really good player, and his backups Tyler Beck, Kendall Montgomery and Clay Rolf all either played or look good in scout play.

He wants to run the ball.  He noted that we can't be worse at running the ball, because we were last in the country.  Having a good TE who can hold the edge is vital to getting an outside running game.

He also talked about WRs.  (I will note that the WRs seemed to be a disappointment to me.  We had guys who got a lot of catches the year before who we did not get much out of this year---Ray Hutson and Justus Jones, specifically.)

Now, we lose Pronty and Wiley, but they were injured and we didn't get a full year out of them anyway.

We lose Geter at RB, but Hopgood got some reps, and FR Jamal Martin looked good in practices.

And QB...he is "very excited" here, with Schilz and then Trent Hurley, a redshirt who won the backup job over the course of the season.

The last two years we have recruited the maximum.  This year, it sounds like he is expecting to be in the teens, maybe the low 20s.  In the past two years we needed guys in bulk, so we concentrated in this area and took every good player we could get our hands on.  Now, our needs are more specific and he says that we will expand "the state of Bowling Green" and go wherever we have to find the right guy.

We will have senior dominated WRs next year, so we have some downstream depth issues.  Also, we are on the lookout for some pass rushing d-ends.

We want to get a QB every year.  (And our verbal at QB is having a huge run in PA, stay tuned for an update early in the week).

He talked with strong candor about the kicking game.  He said punting and kickoffs improved with Bryan Wright, but of course he is gone now.  And, he said that our inbility to make a field goal has been "embarrassing," worse than some high school teams.

He plans no coaching changes and hopes they don't get offered other positions.  A couple of players could transfer for playing time, though that is far from certain.  (Just something in the expectation thing. We had a bunch of QBs redshirt this year, and with Schilz and Hurley emerging, these guys are prime candidates to seek playing time elsewhere, in my opinion only).

Interesting note:  we release players only to teams we don't play.  It is apparently difficult to transfer within the MAC based on some rule the MAC has.

He said that the Miami story gives us hope, and the CMU story does too, in a different way.  This is a very competitive conference and no team has sustained success over a 5-year horizon.

Jack Carle asked about the players huddling around the heater during the WMU game, which I did not notice myself.  They asked if Coach Clawson would have preferred them to be on the sideline supporting their teammates, and he said that he did, but that it wasn't something you fixed during a game.  That spawned a long and interesting description of how you need your senior players--those who have put their sweat and blood into the program--to police those issues.  In his best seasons, the players have managed the team.

Finally, in discussing the numbers issues, he said this....he reminds his assistants that if those 31 players were still here, Coach Clawson wouldn't be.  This is the problem they were brought in to fix.  You wouldn't have one without the other.

Saturday, December 04, 2010

Spartans and Falcons do what Spartans and Falcons do

Things went pretty much as expected in East Lansing today.  Yes, MSU had some shooting woes against our zone in the first half and only led by 6 at the break, but then discussed attacking the 2-3 zone in the locker room and shot 60% in the second half and ended up outscoring BG 49-20 and finished by nearly doubling us up 74-39.

Just to wallow a moment, the 39 points in the worst since we played ranked Temple last season and they held us to 39, and before that we hadn't scored that few since 1995.  We shot 27%, which is actually not even our worst this year, which is even sadder in its own way.

Here's the four factors, which gives you a pretty solid idea of how bad it was.



Imagine where it would have been if MSU had not made 18 turnovers. (Statistically, every turnover cost them 1.5 points).

The rebounding edge was especially one-sided. MSU led that category 51-26, which is a pretty severe disparity in a stat where a 5-rebound difference is a big deal.

Well, we didn't expect to be able to play with them. MSU is a really good basketball team and right now, we are not.