Football Review---Offense

It always happens this way.  I would, in fact, prefer to look back at the football season right after it ends, but as a practical matter, that's always right in the heart of men's basketball season, and that keeps me pretty busy, and then I review basketball when IT ends, and now I'm ready to look back at football.  It does end up being in the middle of spring practice, which is not too bad.

The big caveat is that we lost so many players, I'm not sure how relevant what we learned is for next season.  Let us plow ahead and look at our offense.

Obviously, we had some players with record-setting offensive seasons, and some really good skilled players.  We also finished 3rd in the MAC in scoring (conference games only).  I'm going to argue that actually represented underperformance, and that we left enough points on the board that it probably cost us a shot at a title.  That doesn't mean that we would not have benefited from improvement in other areas.  It means that with the offensive attack we did have, we could have scored even more.

The area of trouble is the red zone.  Let's look at some basic red zone facts:

• BG had 50 red zone trips.  This is an astounding number and the top number in the MAC---the next highest is 41.  CMU only generated 39.  BG clearly was moving the ball into scoring territory.
• We scored on 34 of those attempts, which is tied for second in the MAC, based on raw numbers.
• However, this obviously leaves us with 16 red zone whiffs, the highest number in the MAC.  CMU had 3.  NIU had 1.
• That's a 68% rate, if you are scoring at home.
• Part of the story is scoring mix, too.  Obviously, at some level, a red zone FG is a minor setback.  CMU, for example, led the MAC with 36 redzone scores.  33 of them were TDS.  They averaged 5.3 points per redzone trip, a number BG reached during the UM tenure.  That is simply deadly.  BG averaged 3.6 points per trip.

The anatomy of BG's misses were as follows:

• 5 missed FGs.  (WMU missed 4, no one else missed more than 2).
• 4 turnovers (Top MAC teams had 0 or 1.  It is even more significant for BG, however, because BG did a great job overall taking care of the ball.  We had only 9 turnovers, second in the MAC.  Which means that 4 of our 9 turnovers were in the red zone).
• We had 6 losses on downs.  The next highest team had 3, and 5 teams only did it twice.
• We had 1 "other."  No idea what that means.

Not a pretty picture.  And it cost us.  If we had scored in the red zone like an above average MAC team (say 4.5 points per trip), we would have scored 45 additional points and that is 5.6 PER GAME in the MAC.

Obviously, there are some factors here.  That's way too many missed FGs.  With sample sizes this small, it is impossible to know if the 4 turnovers were just bad luck or due to some weakness in the skills or strategy. There is a school of thought that BG could be deadly on the big field, when everyone is spread out but struggles in the tight spaces of the end zone.

The 6 losses on downs are probably largely based on the weakness in the field goal kicking.  At some point, we went for it because we were afraid our guy would miss the FG.  But, that's not the whole story either.  We were ALREADY trying FGs on a quarter of our red zone trips, and if you add the losses on downs, we were staring at 4th down on at least 19 of our 50 red zone trips (presumably, we converted some and the turnovers could have been on 4th down too)..

Many people will postulate that our inability to run the ball when we got down close was the major culprit.  I'm interested in this and I'm going to do some research--do teams that run the ball poorly do worse in the red zone than teams that do not.

BG certainly DID run the ball poorly.  Some running game facts...

We ran the ball 226 times, the lowest in the MAC.  Miami ran 227.  The median for the conference was 284, almost 7 more carries per game.

Our running average was 3.1 yards per carry, better only than Miami (2.6), and a half yard a carry lower than the next highest team.  9 of the 12 teams in the MAC averaged 4 yards per carry, and you'd like to think we could be in that vicinity.

Clearly, the offense was carried by passing.  We were 3rd in the MAC in attempted passes, and led the conference in passing yards per game.  In 354 attempts, Sheehan threw only 3 INTs, a really impressive number.  He complete 62.7% of his passes, which was 4th in the MAC, but best among the teams with over 300 attempts.  BG had 7.4 yards per attempt, which was also 4th, but does represent an attempt to go downfield more than in past years.  The fact this was done while preserving completion percentage and improving the interception rate is a testament to high quality, senior QB play.

Finally, as noted, the offense did an outstanding job taking care of the ball.  9 turnovers was second lowest in the MAC.

So that's the story of offense.  It was a very good year, and only red zone failures kept it from being a great year.  Defense next.

Men's Basketball Tempo--Facts Suck, Part II

So, starting this I was prepared to prove the following:

• The teams in the MAC play at a very similar pace, more so than other conferences.
• The pace of play in the MAC is much slower than in other comparable conferences.

Facts still suck.

All stats courtesy of statsheet.com and use conference only numbers.

Let's start with a look at the possessions per game in the MAC.

A couple notes.  As you can see, even among the slow, BG is among the slower, something which is not going to be a surprise to anyone observing the team over the past season.  Some perspective on the top....with 71 possessions a game, OU was #46 in the country (out of 335).  With the exception of VMI, which is over 83 possessions per game, every team in the country was 76 and below.  So, OU and NIU are not that far off the top ranking.

One last note.  Last year's tempo was 63.3, so the MAC did play at a quicker tempo this season.

Now, let's look at the MAC versus other comparable conferences.

Ahem.  Cough cough.  Pull collar.  Nervous glace.

OK.  So the MAC is NOT the slowest, in fact, is essentially the same as two other conferences, including the Horizon, and plays a little faster than the MVC.

Beyond that, I looked at the range from top to bottom to test my idea that the teams in the MAC played pretty much the same.  The range from top to bottom was 12 possessions per game.  The Big 10 was 17, C-USA 11, and MVC, Horizon and Summit were 8 or under.  Now, the MAC is hampered by having UT, which played at among the 10 slowest tempos in the country, but beyond that, I think it is clear that the MAC is no more uniform than these other conferences and possibly a little less.

Men's Basketball Attendance.....BG and MAC....a sad tale of woe

I knew that BG has not been drawing well for basketball.  This has been going on for some time.  However, when I looked at the MAC attendance, I was shocked that we are, in fact, not alone in this issues.  In fact, for MAC games only, BG outdrew Miami this year, something I would not have anticipated seeing.  I put arrows next to the teams that drew fewer than 2,000 fans per game, which I would view as a pretty minimal expectation.  (I included CMU, which is awfully close).  OU draws well no matter what, and Kent and Akron were OK.  Ball State seems to have some residual support.  Note that many sources have told me that UT's attendance counting is notoriously generous.  Perhaps that is true across the board.

Now, looking more specifically at Bowling Green (all games now), and you can see how things have played out for the last five years.  It is not a good story.  The last Dakich year and the first Orr year were really bad.  We did pick up a little the last two seasons, but still pretty anemic.  Yes, I know that 1,700 is 30% more (about) than 1,300, but that's what you get with such low numbers.

What's behind this.  First, we have had losing years 6 of the last 8 seasons.  We play a very conservative style of basketball.  And the school and community have lost touch with the basketball program--at least for the men.  I can remember when you would see everyone you knew at a Falcon basketball game.  They just weren't missed.  Not true anymore.

The MAC has had a similar issue.  As you can see below, average attendance has fallen significantly since 05-06.  While the drop has apparently bottomed out, it represents a lot of things that I have blogged about before--the lack of NBA quality players, the similarity of play throughout the conference, and the loss of a connection to hoops programs at other schools similar to what has happened at BG.

This is all part of the challenge to the MAC to bring basketball back.  These are modest goals we are seeing here.  Each of the schools in the MAC has to be about the business of rebuilding its fan base and giving people something to be excited about again.

Blade looks at Spring Practice

The Blade popped down to check in on Spring Practice.  Overall theme....we're gonna be young.   In fact, Coach says it is the youngest team he has ever had.  They do have talent, (as opposed to being young AND untalented), and Coach points out that while there may be some growing pains this year, these players will also be able to play together for a long time.

Couple other notes....

In the WR mix, he mentions Kamar Jorden, who I had not heard of previously.  Though his official page lists him as a FR, he is a JUCO graduate with a redshirt year at BG last year, making him a junior.  He played at Hudson Valley Community college, setting some school records his second season.

Played two years at Hudson Valley Community College ... had 60 catches for 938 yards and three touchdowns as a sophomore, earning first-team Northeast All-Conference ... both numbers were school records

Finally, Kevin Alvarado, who was suspended late last year, is back in practice and on the road to earning his way back to a full reinstatement.

Men's Hoops, Individual Style

Moving through a review of the season, I wanted to take a look at how our players fared in individual statistics.  If you read the blog, you know there is no chance this will turn into a rip on anyone.  I just want to see how individuals contributed to the team on a measurable basis, and how they ranked with their conference peers.  Anything I have to say about how the team under-performed (and there was plenty) was covered in the team reviews.

No Falcon led the MAC in any category. The closest things to the top were a few cases where our guys were #2.  Scott Thomas was #2 in steals and Otis Polk was #2 in blocked shots.  We had a few other guys lurking around in there.  Let's take a look at what we have, with some comments sprinkled in along the way as appropriate (or, when I feel like it).

Conference Games Only

Scoring
Thomas #7
Brown #27
Polk #28

Nothing too surprising here.  We didn't score a lot, and it shows here.

Rebounds
Thomas #11
Polk #13

FG%
Marschall #4
Polk #5

With our "inside out" play, you really need this kind of shooting on the inside.  Although Otis was frustrating in the pre-MAC season with his field goals, he did bring it around for the MAC season.  Erik Marschall had a real knack for getting to the basket.

Assist
Jakubowski #5

FT%
Jakubowski #6

Steals
Thomas #2
Jakubowski #14

Thomas is deadly in the corner of that zone, and when he gets the ball in the corner, he's athletic enough to make something happen on the other end.

3fg%
Brown #5
Jakubowski #7

Note a good percentage on low attempts.  Nothing wrong, however, with only taking the 3 when it is open for you, especially in our offense.

Blocked Shots
Polk #2

A/t
Jakubowski #9

Off Rebounds
Polk #5

I'm not sure why, but Otis was much better on the offensive boards than the defensive boards.

Def Rebounds
Thomas #3

This is a pretty good result for a guy with Thomas' size.  He was very tough on the defensive boards and it demonstrates his value even when he does not score.

Minutes
Thomas #4
Brown #12
Jakubowski #14

With 3 of the top 15 players, you can see our relative lack of depth.  We clearly had no one to spell Scott Thomas.

Possession %
Thomas #11

Our first "new" or tempo free stat, this simply looks at how many of your team's possessions you used up, with a shot or turnover.  The idea here is that a player with a great scoring average can get there by shooting all the time, and if you add in turnovers, they may not be as valuable as they thought, since the team only gets so many possessions in a game.  The fact BG does not have someone in the top 10 reflects the solid team play that made us as good as we were.

Floor %
Polk #7

This reflects the percentage of possessions for a player where points were scored....including assists.  All this means is that when Otis got the ball, there were only 6 players better at getting points.

Offensive Rating
No one in top 19

This measure looks at points per 100 possessions.  Clearly, a reflection of our team's struggle to score consistently.

Shot Pct
Thomas #12

Scott Thomas was #12 in the MAC in terms of how many of our shots he took, again reflecting a team approach on offense.

Effective FG%
Marschall #12
Polk #13
Brown #14

When your best players are inside players, you will be harmed on this measure, which counts 3FG as 1.5 of a 2FG.

True Shooting
Marschall #16

This is a measure of all shooting, including free throws.

+/-

Marschall #3 (+141)
Thomas #11 (+79)

I think this is interesting. One of my off-season projects will be to dive into this whole +/- thing and see what might be available to learn.  In 16 MAC games, BG was 141 points better when Erik Marschall was on the floor than when he was not, which is about 9 points a game, and pretty impressive in a league where the average margin of victory is much less.  Scott Thomas was +79, though he hardly left the floor, which is something we need to figure out.  Anyway, my instincts are that this is a very effective way to identify valuable players, and that these two players were the ones we relied on most.

TO%
Thomas #22
Jakubowski #65

This looks at turnovers per individual possession.  (If  you have the ball a lot, you will make more turnovers; in comparison, if you don't, you shouldn't be making them).  We identified in the offensive review that we turned the ball over too many times for a slow tempo team without a ton of great shooters, and that conclusion is reflected here.

FT %
Medlock 35%
Kool 31%
Thomas #13 (26%)

Finally, this stat reflects the percentage of points scored on free throws.  I list it only to show something that is important for the development of Scott Thomas.  The MAC's best scorers were getting around 1/3 of their points at the free throw line...and Coach Orr correctly says that any scorer has to get to the line in those kind of numbers.  Something to work on in the off-season.

Falcons To Initiate Process to Retire Numbers

There have been some assurances over the past year or so that the athletic department was looking into a process for retiring jersey numbers.  It seemed to come to a head with the call to retire the number of Butch Komives, but has been percolating for some time, in fact.  Follow the link and you can go to the Falcon Website and nominate players to have their number retired.

This is a good step, a good way to involve the fans, and the right thing to honor some of our greats who deserve it.  Big round of applause.......

Great Freddie Barnes Story.....

Here's a great story all Falcon fans should read....Freddie Barnes is heading back to his hometown as part of an exhibition where local high school players will play against NFL players in a basketball game.  Barnes, who was also a standout in basketball, will coach the local high school players.

He will also talk about his graduation in May...and how he had to switch from QB to WR, and he can still be in the NFL.  He will talk about being flexible in pursuit of your goals...and how he expects to tear up when he gets his degree.

It is a great story and a true inspiration. There are lots of times when Freddie had easier choices than the ones he made. But, unlike too many others, he has converted his athletic scholarship into a degree, as well as being a finalist for a prestigious national award.

Freddie, you're a true Falcon, and we're proud of you.

Excepts below. Entire story a must-read.

"I have a feeling I'm going to tear up a little bit when I get that degree," Barnes said. "My family is very proud, which means a great deal to me. My mother has worked so hard to teach me how to avoid making mistakes, to be a good person and to try to help others."

"Everything changed for me when Dave Clawson became our head coach and Mark Carney was named receivers coach for the 2009 season," Barnes said. "It was a fresh start for everybody. We became a big-time passing team and I was right in the middle of the game plan."

"My junior year was no fun at all," Barnes said. "I had injuries and went through depression. But my faith in God and my family pulled me through it."