Preview of the Big Game

What is their body of work?

Miami is the traditional MAC power in football.  After Big Ben left, they went through some dark years--14 straight losing seasons--before Chuck Martin broke through in his sixth year with an 8-6 record.  The last two years have been excellent.  They are 13-2 in the last two years in the MAC and are the defending champions.

Since Martin arrived, the RedHawks are 5-2 against BG.  Jinks won one and Loeffler won the last game played at the Doyt.  Last year, Miami wiped BG out 27-0 in Oxford.

BG is a 2-point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 27 juniors and seniors, which is a young team in 2024.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games, mostly in INT.  BG creates a new game by taking care of the ball.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Gabbert is a good QB.  PFF ranks him #10 and #7 as a runner.  He was third-team All-MAC last year, when he had a significantly better year.  He leads the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are  #5 in scoring with 30.5 points per game but #1 in yards per play at 6.8.  BG's defense allows 15.4 points per game, which is tied for second with Miami.  The Falcons allow 4.6 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  They are #3 at 5.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 3.7 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #5 in pass efficiency.  Gabbert is #7.  He has completed 57% of his passes, 15 TDs over 2INT and a stunning 15.3 yards per reception. Reggie Virgil is #1 in the MAC with 23 yards per reception.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 47% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  35% which is #9 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

They have only one empty trip in 25 attempts.  However, 11 of those were FGs.  Overall, the 4.96 is not great. Between the 3rd down and red zone, this is why their yards per play is way better than their scoring. BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed. 

Do they protect the QB?

They have allowed sacks on 7.2% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7.8% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are tied for 2nd with BG at 15.4 PPG.  They lead the MAC allowing 4 yards per play.  BG scores 28. which is #6 and 5.7 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Yes. At 2.8 yards per carry, they are #1 in the MAC. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #7. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are 1st in passing efficiency defense.  They allow 56% completions, have 10 INT and 9.5 yards per completion. BG is #2 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They allow 41% which is #9.  BG converts 35%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 5.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they have sacks on 8.2% of passes. BG allows sacks on 8.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

While their kicker is a boomer, they are #7 in net punting. BG is #1.

Punt Return?

Middle of the pack

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 22 of 26 with a long of 51.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 26 (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

I'd say this is the biggest game played at the Doyt in terms of MAC play since the MAC title Big Ben game on December 4, 2023.  If you remove UT games and the Indiana G-O-G-O game, I think this is the biggest game we have had in a long time.  Reminds me a lot of the fat punter game.

Let's hope people come back to town.  I recall during Meyer I we had a great crowd for the day after Thanksgiving, but that was Toledo.  A big crowd would be great.  Will be cold.  Could snow.  

Just to be frank, Miami is the cause of a significant number of banana-peel moments in our history.  There was Hall-of-Famer Don Nehlen forgetting what down it was. A ridiculous rally in MBB that gave the Miami SID a heart attack. Fog Bowl.  The last grass game at the Doyt...think Charlie Brown FG.  We tried to make it go away by giving it a name---the Miami Whammy.  Still hasn't come too far.

In fact, until UT became a state school, Miami was our top rival.  They own the series with us.

For today, as mentioned, we are 2-point favorites.  You can see above that the game appears to be very evenly matched.  I think it will be low scoring and determined by one or two plays.

Like all football games, it will be decided up front. BG must run the ball and protect the QB.  Miami is really difficult to pass against, and we need to run the ball to open the offense up.  Same is true of them.  We have a defense that can compete with theirs.

I am really looking forward to the game.  We have waited a long time for this game.  Let's back the boys.,,,

Weber State preview

While the football team plays its biggest home game in 20 years or so, the MBB team will be in Tempe playing in an MTE, starting with Weber State.  Depending on the result, they will play Pepperdine or New Mexico State on Saturday.

The games won't be played in Arizona State's basketball arena, but in Mullet Arena, as pictured below.

No seriously.  Mullet is a 5,000 seat arena where the ASU ice hockey teams play, a G-league team, etc. The NHL Coyotes have played there as well.

The first opponent is Weber State. The Wildcats. They play in the Big Sky Conference, which is currently the #21 conference.  The MAC is currently #20.

It's WE-ber, not WEB-er.  The school was named after Weber County, where it is, and the county was named after a fur trader named John Henry Weber who was German and apparently said his name "VE-ber."

They have been to the NCAA tournament 16 times, most recently in 2016.  Coaching legend Dick Motta coached them to the 1968 tournament ...

Blue Ribbon had them #2 in the Big Sky.  The coaches had them 4th and the media had them 3rd.

The year is off to a tough start.  They had played a tough early schedule, standing at 2-4 in all games and 0-4 in D1 games.  That includes @Oregon State (#95, lose by 28), @Nevada (#36, lose by 30), @Hawaii (#191, OT loss), UC Irvine at home (#61, 6-point loss). Their kenpom has fallen from 175 to 230, mostly because of the margin of defeat in those first two games and the fact that they are winless when D1 games only are counted.

That's the #19 schedule to date in the country, discounting non-D1 games.  CMU has played the toughest schedule in the MAC, #34.

I suspect Weber State will show up pretty hungry.

Their adjusted efficiency (for schedule, road games, etc) is 1.04 on offense, which is below the national average.  They are allowing 1.09, which is poor.  

Their adjusted tempo is 68, which is pretty slow.

Looking at offense, their biggest weakness has been shooting.  They are making 44% on 2FG and 31% on 3FG, both well below average.  Combined, they are #308 in shooting out of 364.  Their turnovers are a little better than average and their offensive rebounding a little worse.  They get to the line a lot (#115)  but make only 66% (#294).  14% of their shots have been blocked, which is a lot.  Even worse is BG, which has 16.8% of its shots blocked, among the 10 worst in the country.

Defensively, things are a little worse. They allow an unbelievable 43% on 3FG, which is #358 in the country. They are #221 in defending the 2FG. They don't force turnovers (#256), are poor on their own boards (#223) and give up a staggering amount of FTs (#339).

Their leading scorer is Blaise Threatt, a 6'3" Sr. G with 19 PPG on 51% 2FG shooting and 33% 3FG shooting. He's their only double-figure scorer.  They have a few guys around 8 PPG.  One player to watch is Miguel Tomley, who caused a whole Big Sky controversy over transferring in the conference from Idaho State.

Dyson Koehler is their top rebounder, at 6'7".  They have a 6'1" C from Montengro.  (Vucinic.  Why are there no guards from Central Europe?)

They have 3 Canadians, one Englishman, one Finn, 2 Serbians, one Montenegran and one Japanese player.

So off we go.  Kenpom gives Weber State a 60% chance of winning.

BG MBB Signee

 BG MBB has announced one more early signing period player.  His name is Aidan Goins, a 6'9" C who is playing this year at Walters State, a community college in Tennessee. It's early in the year, but he is averaging 17.2 points per game while shooting 58.9-percent from the field and 60-percent from three on 15 attempts.

Last year, he played at Motlow State, putting up good numbers there, too. He was also all-district coming out of HS.

In the official BGSU release, Coach Simon said...

"Aiden is a dynamic big man that we see as an inside and outside threat. His skill set will put a lot of pressure on defenses. His fit on and off the court is perfect for us. We look forward to having him help us on our journey to bring a championship to Bowling Green."

This is exactly the kind of big man we have been trying to collect.

Welcome to the Falcons, Aidan.

Sad Story from Louisville

 Name one sentence you never thought you'd say....how about...

"Bellarmine sure has our number."

Good choice.

The Knights have won 6 DI games since the beginning of last season, and two of them are double-digit wins over the Falcons.

We are off to a rough start.  It's a lot of guys to put together.  I'd hoped that the European trip might have helped but right now it's looking rough.

BG led early, but Bellarmine took the lead 7 minutes in and did not trail again.  They led by 5 at the half, had the lead in single digits 2 minutes into the 2nd half.  BG made a 9-0 run to get the lead to 4 with about 15 to play, and it was still 4 with 9 to play.  An 8-0 Bellarmine run put the lead back to 12 with 7 to play.  The teams traded 3FGs for a minute, but the lead was up to 16 with 4 to play and that was all there was to talk about.  Final was 80-68.

The game was played at 68 possessions, which is slow for how BG plays but not really slow. The key point is the Falcons allowed 1.18 points per possession, which is comparable to the MSU and Davidson losses and scored 1 point per possession, which is not winnable.  We won one game at 1 point per possession or lower....Southern Indiana last year (54-52).

BG took a season high 47% of their shots from 3FG, making 38%, which isn't bad.  The 44% they made on 2FGs was not helpful, however, and it equalled out to an average shooting night. Turnovers were not bad, but the offensive rebounding was terrible and BG did not get to the line very much either, making 12 of 16.

Bellarmine had a 58% EFG, the best against BG this year. They made 46% on 2FG and 40% on 3FG.  Tough to beat a team that shoots like that. Their turnovers were good, they also did not do well on the offensive boards and they made 20 of 22 at the FT line.

BG had two players with 20 points. Campbell had 21, 7 of 9 2FG shooting and 2 of 3 3FG.  He did have 4 turnovers. Derrick Barnes Butler (we regret the error) also had 21 of 3 of 5 and 5 of 9 shooting and 4 rebounds.  Yo-Yo had 11 on 2 of 4 and 1 of 2 shooting. Marcus Johnson was held to 9 and a team high 6 rebounds. Took only 7 shots.  Trey Thomas had 4 assists and 0 turnovers but was 1-7 from 3FG and was blocked 3 times.

At 2-4, 1-4 in MAC games, BG has a few days off.  They will play Weber State on Friday in Tempe.

And down the stretch they come.....

 

Credit here to the MAC Sports Connection Podcast for sorting out the final permutations for the last week.  This is what I came up with as well.

If BG wins, they could play Ohio or Miami.  Note that the 5th scenario would be Buffalo win, not loss.

#4 is the one that gets crazy.  BG/UB/and OU are tied.  Among common opponents, BG and UB and undefeated and OU has a loss (Ball State).  Which eliminates them.  You got to head-to-head among BG and UB's common opponents, which is still a tie.  Both teams lost one game in a common opponent...BG lost to NIU and UB lost to WMU.  The tiebreaker would be decided by whether NIU or WMU finishes higher in the final standings, all tie breakers applied.

Ultimately, BG wins they are in and could play OU, Miami or UB.

BG can make it with a loss to Miami, but only if OU loses to Ball State, in Athens at the same time as our game. 

Candidly, as much as I love scenarios, I don't think Ball State is very likely to walk out of Athens with a win.  ESPN gives BG a 58% chance to win and OU an 87% chance to win.  Also, UB is likely to beat Kent. (93%).

But, it could happen.

The most likely scenario is that it will be OU. The scenario does exist where BG would have to beat Miami twice in a row to win the championship.

No one said it would be easy.

Here is the opponent tracker...

Fordham (2-9) Lost to Merrimack

PSU:  (10-1) Beat Minny by one

TX A&M: (8-3) Lost to Auburn in 4OT.

ODU:  (4-7)  Lost to Marshall.  No bowl for you.

Akron:  (3-7) #MACTION

NIU: (6-5) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-11) #MACTION

UT:  (7-4) #MACTION

CMU (4-7) #MACTION

WMU: (5-6) #MACTION

BSU (3-8): #MACTION

MU:  (7-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Falcons Win, Head to the BIG GAME

Ok, kids.  We have waited a long time to be here...we are heading to the Doyt on Friday to play a big game.  How long?  I've tried to figure out...probably a post this week...but it has to be 10 years since we played a game this big on our field...excluding UT and Indiana, etc.  It reminds me of the Fat Punter game a little, except that was for the title.  Let us hope we exorcise that demon and any other number of Miami demons.

Remember, for context, BG is playing the top scoring offense in the MAC.  Ball State gets the ball and goes three and out.  BSU gets a long roll on the punt and BG starts on their own 7.

And BG goes on a dream drive.  Just the thing you want when you are playing a high-octane offense.  15 plays, 93 yards and 8:44 off the clock.  And a touchdown.  Three 3rd-down conversions---one at 5 yards and 2 at one yard--finished with Bazelak to Fannin on first and goal...and BG had a 7-0 lead.

BS took the ball and converted a 3rd and 9.  BG got a first down sack and BS had a short punt this time and BG started on their 30.

BG went three and out and then BS drove to the BG 48 before BG got a 4th down stop and gave the offense great field position.  

And BG gave up a sack and went three and out.  Coach said after the game that the Falcons missed two open plays on the 2nd and 3rd drive that would have broken the game wide open...one was caused by pressure and one was a wide open throw to Johnson that Bazelak just missed.

The game was in the second quarter by then.  With about 5 minutes left, Stewart fumbled and BSU recovered on the BG 25.  A moment of maximum danger...literally...as BS ran a ridiculous WR pass that hit Oladokun in the numbers and BG had the ball back. 

BG appeared to get some momentum and drove to the BSU 25 where the drive stalled.  Zach Long, who is developing into a stud, drilled a 43-yarder and BG had a 10-point lead.

To this point, Coach said that BG was missing big plays on offense and doing "uncharacteristic" things on defense, even as they were holding BSU scoreless.  And that usually comes back to haunt teams.  Ball State had used timeouts when BG had the ball and they mounted a drive.  It was at midfield and appeared to be doing nowhere when BG pressured Semonza. He escaped the pocket and hit a RB on a broken route and he ran the 51-yards into the end zone to make it 10-7 at the half.

Coach said no one panicked in the locker room.  Adjustments were made and the team came out ready to clean things up.  BG got the ball and ran another long drive....15 plays in 6:44.  This one got to the BSU 10 before Bazleak took a sack and the Falcons had to finish with a FG to make it 13-7.

Still facing an offense that can score, but BG's defense was solid again, forcing a three and out.  Another poor punt was followed by a big return/penalty that netted the Falcons with the ball on the BSU 46.

Two passes to Fannin and 43 yards later, BG was on the 3 and on 3rd down Rahkeem Smith took an end around into the end zone and BG had a 21-7 lead with 4 minutes to play in the 3rd.  (Bazelak and Johnson made a sweet pass and catch to get the conversion.)

The defense got a 3 and out again and on the second play of the BG's drive, Bazelak hit Smith in the left flat.  He absolutely smoked the defender and had nothing but open field.  The young man can run and it was a 66-yard TD reception and BG had a 28-7 lead late in the 3rd.  

In four minutes of game time, the issue was settled. 

BSU had the ball, punting on the first play of the 4th quarter...punt was partially blocked and BG started on the BSU 46.  They moved the chains on a 4th and 3 DPI and then ended up with a 48-yard FG from Long to make it 31-7.

The teams traded TDs on the next two possessions, including Smith's 3rd TD of the game.  BG won 38-13.

It was far from our best game....but in a trap game situation, against a wild card team with an interim coach but the ability to score...on the road....empty stadium....this was the outcome we needed.  Honestly, anything where they aren't in the game in the 4th quarter is a success.

BG's defense was the story, as they increasingly are.  BG held BSU to 43 yards rushing.  That includes sacks...the BSU backs were 17 for 75, a 4.4 yard per carry rate. Semonza, the #4 passer in the MAC, was held to just over 50% completions 11 yards a completion and 4 sacks.  There's the INT on the gadget pass and Tanner Koziol was held to 5 matches for 27 yards. Overall, BSU had 254 yards and 4.1 yards per play, with some of that coming in garbage time...BSU had 86 yards in the 4th.

On offense, BG did not establish the run.  Stewart had 10 carries for 32 yards and a lost fumble. Patterson was 5 for 15.  BG got some run yards from Bazelak and Smith, but by and large did not run the ball effectively.

Bazelak was 18 of 29 for 299, which is 14.2 yards per reception, a big number. (Really a team stat). He was sacked twice and continued to be effective on play action and when he isn't pressured.

Fannin was 9 for 125 and 1 TD.  He has to be first-team AP All-American at TE.  Every team is focused on stopping him and no one has succeeded.

FYI, he left the game injured and returned to the field but not the game.  He had his helmet.  Loeffler has promised to provide injury updates on "a couple" guys tomorrow.  I suspect they will be game time decisions ;)

Smith had 81 receiving yards and 3 total TDs.  He has made a big difference.  With Garcia not playing at all, we were really light at WR and having him out there is a perfect example of making the most of your opportunities. (and according to the stats he blocked a punt).

True FR Kal-El Pascal made 8 tackles and a TFL. Sipp had 2 sacks and a break up. Saad and Davis had sacks. Saad also forced a fumble on his sack. BG broke up 8 passes---8 different guys. Oladokun had a pick and seemed to be all over the place...more than the numbers indicated.

This is a stout defense.  

Long was 3-3 including a 48-yarder, outdoors in November. Henderson was effective punting, putting 3 inside the 20. 

So, more later on the big game.  Miami is very good.  We are playing very well.  It's going to be a game of defenses and line of scrimmage play.

Cardinal Preview

What is their body of work?

Things have been better in Muncie.  ln 2013, the Cards went 10-3 under the leadership of Pete Lembo...rumors were that Clawson snatched the Wake Forest job out from under Lembo with the win over NIU at Ford Field.  Anyway, since then, they have 10 losing years out of 11.  Alum Mike Neu was fired and this is the first game the interim will coach.

They are 3-7 and 2-4.  Their 4 losses have been by 15 points, leading people to say that they are 15 points from being undefeated.  Their two wins are by 4, so they are also 4 points from being winless.

Due to the unbalanced schedule, BG and Ball State have hardly played.  If you want to look at our last 10 meetings, you are stretching back to the Blackney era.  BG has won 8 of those last 10. Their last loss in Muncie was in 1995.

BG is an 11-point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 23 juniors and seniors, which is a young team.

Who are their national leaders?

Malcon Gillie is #9 in combined kick yards, #16 in KO returns, 

Tanner Koziol is #4 in receptions per game.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +5 in MAC games.   Had +4 in the win over NIU.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

He is a redshirt-FR--Kadin Semonza--and he's from California.  He played in 4 games last year. He's #4 in passing efficiency...65% completed, 14 TD over 5 INT and 11.6 yards per completion. Bazelak is #2.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC in scoring with 34.5 points per game #4 in yards per play at 5.9. (There are those turnovers at work). BG's defense allows 15.8 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 4.7 yards per play (4th).

Can they run the ball?

Not really.  They are #9 at 3.9 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in pass efficiency. BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 52% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They do.  42%, #2 in MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5 points per trip, which is not bad.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.1 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 3 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 16 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

Yes, sacks on 5.4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36) and 10th in yards per play allowed (6.6).  BG scores 26. which is #7 and 5.8 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

No, #11 at 5.4 yards per carry allowed. At 4.4 yards per carry, BG's offense is #6. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, 16 TDs over 6 INT and over 13 yards a completion, which is a ton.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

BSU allows 40, which is #7.  BG converts 34%, which is #10.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 6.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.6 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Average, they have sacks on 5.7% of passes. BG allows sacks on 9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are last in net punting. No blocks.  They have pooch-punted 6 times all year  In MAC play, BG is #3.

Punt Return?

Ah no.  They have one net punt return yard.

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 11 of 13 with a long of 52.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 26. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27, with a TD (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

A bunch here.

First, Ball State has an interim coach.  That can impact a team either way.  Sometimes it wakes them up, sometimes they write the year off.  In the portal era, where guys are looking elsewhere by mid-season, it seems likely to me that you get the bad side of that equation.  I'm watching Temple right now, and they are in that boat, and they aren't rolling over.  Anyway, it's a variable to be sure.

This is a classic trap game.  You have the perceived big game next Friday, but you need this one first. (I have not heard anything official on whether BG is out if they lose to Ball State...perhaps more will be revealed tomorrow.)  But, the most direct way for BG to make it is to win both games.  And they cannot look past this one....BSU has been competitive all season.  If we don't come to play, we will lose.

Weather is supposed to be dry and in the 40s tomorrow.  To me, the key is the BG run game.  BSU can be run against, and if we can control the ball and keep the game from being a shoot out, we should be able to pick this one up.  We've had some time off.  This should be a win.