Cardinal Preview

What is their body of work?

Things have been better in Muncie.  ln 2013, the Cards went 10-3 under the leadership of Pete Lembo...rumors were that Clawson snatched the Wake Forest job out from under Lembo with the win over NIU at Ford Field.  Anyway, since then, they have 10 losing years out of 11.  Alum Mike Neu was fired and this is the first game the interim will coach.

They are 3-7 and 2-4.  Their 4 losses have been by 15 points, leading people to say that they are 15 points from being undefeated.  Their two wins are by 4, so they are also 4 points from being winless.

Due to the unbalanced schedule, BG and Ball State have hardly played.  If you want to look at our last 10 meetings, you are stretching back to the Blackney era.  BG has won 8 of those last 10. Their last loss in Muncie was in 1995.

BG is an 11-point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 23 juniors and seniors, which is a young team.

Who are their national leaders?

Malcon Gillie is #9 in combined kick yards, #16 in KO returns, 

Tanner Koziol is #4 in receptions per game.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +5 in MAC games.   Had +4 in the win over NIU.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

He is a redshirt-FR--Kadin Semonza--and he's from California.  He played in 4 games last year. He's #4 in passing efficiency...65% completed, 14 TD over 5 INT and 11.6 yards per completion. Bazelak is #2.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC in scoring with 34.5 points per game #4 in yards per play at 5.9. (There are those turnovers at work). BG's defense allows 15.8 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 4.7 yards per play (4th).

Can they run the ball?

Not really.  They are #9 at 3.9 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in pass efficiency. BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 52% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They do.  42%, #2 in MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5 points per trip, which is not bad.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.1 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 3 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 16 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

Yes, sacks on 5.4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36) and 10th in yards per play allowed (6.6).  BG scores 26. which is #7 and 5.8 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

No, #11 at 5.4 yards per carry allowed. At 4.4 yards per carry, BG's offense is #6. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, 16 TDs over 6 INT and over 13 yards a completion, which is a ton.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

BSU allows 40, which is #7.  BG converts 34%, which is #10.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 6.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.6 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Average, they have sacks on 5.7% of passes. BG allows sacks on 9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are last in net punting. No blocks.  They have pooch-punted 6 times all year  In MAC play, BG is #3.

Punt Return?

Ah no.  They have one net punt return yard.

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 11 of 13 with a long of 52.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 26. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27, with a TD (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

A bunch here.

First, Ball State has an interim coach.  That can impact a team either way.  Sometimes it wakes them up, sometimes they write the year off.  In the portal era, where guys are looking elsewhere by mid-season, it seems likely to me that you get the bad side of that equation.  I'm watching Temple right now, and they are in that boat, and they aren't rolling over.  Anyway, it's a variable to be sure.

This is a classic trap game.  You have the perceived big game next Friday, but you need this one first. (I have not heard anything official on whether BG is out if they lose to Ball State...perhaps more will be revealed tomorrow.)  But, the most direct way for BG to make it is to win both games.  And they cannot look past this one....BSU has been competitive all season.  If we don't come to play, we will lose.

Weather is supposed to be dry and in the 40s tomorrow.  To me, the key is the BG run game.  BSU can be run against, and if we can control the ball and keep the game from being a shoot out, we should be able to pick this one up.  We've had some time off.  This should be a win.