Babers: "We will not go home"

UT had one day more prep leading into Tuesday's game...if you think maybe Coach Babers isn't focused on beating Toledo, maybe this quote might change your mind.

“We’re going to start breaking this down on the bus,” he said of the win over Western Michigan. “When we get in at 4 o’clock in the morning, we’re going to work all day. We will not go home. We will work all day and then meet the team at 4 o’clock. And after that we’ll meet some more. And if we’re tired, we’re tired. We’re coaches. The players will be fresh.”

Sweet Victory #8: The Defense

It was not an unusual story for the BG defense.  It is not the first time that the phrase "bend but don't break" has been brought out.

Bend.  WMU had 27 first downs, 205 yards rushing for a sack-adjusted average north of 5 yards per carry.  Even at that, WMU came into the game with the MAC's top rushing offense and while they got their yards, BG kept WMU from winning the game on the ground.

They were 24-40 passing with one pick...and 7.1 yards per attempt and 11.8 yards per reception, both better numbers than BG had.  They finished with 5.7 yards per play--less than BG due to the running.

Even so, BG gave up a good number of yards and first downs.  The difference--two turnovers, a FG stop in the red zone and a total stop as well and they held WMU to 4 of 13 on 3rd down and 1 of 3 on 4th down.  Those two stats go a long way to explain the part where BG didn't break.  The ability to get the other team off the field is key.

And the red zone stop at the end?  That was huge.  Yes, BG was up two scores, but the Falcons were able to hold that lead while forcing WMU to kill almost five minutes of precious game time with no return.

BG also had 5 sacks, including a key one on the game's critical fourth down play.  And, after a rough start, BG closed the last game with 6 scoreless stops.

This has been how BG's defense has worked most of the year, especially against better opposition.  I don't think they are going to suddenly turn into a shutdown defense, but at the same time this level of success, if it can continue, is enough to keep BG on the winning side.

BG is 8-2, just for the record.

Austin Valdez had a huge game, with 15 tackles, 1 sack, 2 TFL and a hurry.  Clint Stephens had 12 solo tackles and 2 breakups, battling through some early issues covering Corey Davis.  James Sanford had 12 tackles and 1 break up while Trent Greene had 11 tackles and a fumble recovery.  Terrance Bush had 2 sacks, Zach Colvin had 1 and Royster and Lunsford split a sack.  Alfonso Mack had an interception.

Sweet Victory #8: The Offense

The "business model" of this BG team is pretty simple.  We're going to score a lot and we're going to play good enough defense that you are eventually losing and looking at having to outscore us and then you aren't going to be able to play the way you want to play and then we've got you.

It has been pretty successful this year, though powered by superior offensive talent, including a record-setting QB, a WR who could be playing in the NFL next year and a historic RB.  And others.  Anyway, that how it is supposed to work and how it did work in the win against WMU.

It wasn't the best day the offense has had all year, which says something on its own.  Overall, BG ran 82 plays for 505 yards, which means 6.2 yards per play, which is a winning total, though more than a yard below the season average.  Even so, the team scored 6 touchdowns, had 28 first downs and was 7 of 15 on 3rd down and 1 of 1 on 4th.  There was only one turnover.

Amazingly, BG scored 6 TDs and was only in the red zone once.

What was a little different was the exact mix of how it happened.  BG is used to putting up huge passing numbers, but in this game it was the running that really carried the load.  Let me just say that Travis Greene--who will break the BG career rushing record next week--is just an incredible runner who gets better and better.  He took some WMU defenders right out of their shorts last night.  It was impressive.

BG ended up with 236 yards net rushing.  If you remove the sacks, BG had 248 yards on 38 carries, which is 6.5 yards per carry and constitutes carving the Broncos up by any measure.  Travis Greene carried the load, with 24 carries for 170 yards and 3 TDs...that's 7.1 yards per carry.  That's a lot of carries for him...they have typically been keeping him in the high teens.  Fred Coppet had 6 carries for 64 yards, which is an even bigger 10.1 yards per carry.

That was needed because BG had its lowest passing game of the season.  BG threw for only 269 yards.  Beyond that, Johnson was 23 of 41 for 56%, which means 6.6 per attempt and 11.7 per completion, both of which are fine but below what this offense has typically produced.

That makes a difference, as noted in the comments to the post above, because the BG offense is predicated on momentum.  Three and outs--especially three passing plays and out--give the other team the ball back in less than a minute and put the defense back onto the field.  You almost need the churning success we saw over the past few weeks.  You need that accuracy.

Gehrig Dieter was 9 for 85 and Lewis was 8 for 86 and 2 scores.  Burbrink had 5 and Redding had 2 and a TD.  Ronnie Moore appeared to be injured on a diving attempt and finished with 1 catch and did not return after that.

The other credit goes to some people who don't get stats.  I think BG's offensive line has been playing really well lately.  They opened the holes for Travis Greene so he could get to the second level and make people miss (and Coppet) and Johnson was sacked 3 times but Coach noted after the game that two of them were really coverage sacks.  That's going to be critical because BG is going to need a very strong offensive line effort against the Rockets, who are very tough up front.

BG MBB Early Signees

Yesterday was the early signing day for basketball.  BG inked the two players we were anticipating, Dylan Frye and Rodrick Caldwell.  Both look like really good players as we rebuild our program.  The thing is that they are both 1s...and the program desperately needs inside players.  I'm confident that Coach Huger is aware of the need for inside players and they are working on it.  Anyway, Rodrick and Dylan, welcome to BG.

Sweet Victory #8: The Recap

It was slated to be BG's toughest game since Memphis left town and I think it qualified as that.  Even with that, against a very good team, BG was able to win on the road.  This one was big for our guys. I'm immensely proud of the effort and success this year.  Even the defense--undermanned as it is--continues to grind and seems to have an ability to win battles late when they are really needed.

Of course, that locks up BG's 3rd straight East title.  (Technically, it was locked up before the game when NIU held off Buffalo, but with the win BG will take the East outright.)

Anyone care to remember when it seemed like we would never get even one East title?  Just stop for a minute.  BG is 8-2, two big upsets, undefeated in conference...this has been a pretty damn good year.  Now, there are still some things that could make it better (ahem, UT, MAC title), but to date it would be hard for it to be much better.

I would not have been surprised if the game had been a track meet and it certainly looked at first like that was going to be what would happen.

BG took the opening kickoff and did what it does, which is to operate a 10-play, 79-yard drive in 1:47 (which is just unbelievable), capped by Johnson going over the top to Lewis for 35 yards and BG had a 7-0 lead.

WMU came right down the field, hitting Corey Davis 3 times for 48 yards.  (Coach said after the game that after this drive the team dropped into zone on him and didn't try to play man against him).  Anyway, they got to the BG 26 before Terrance Bush picked up a 3rd down sack and they hit a 48 yd FG to make it 7-3 BG.

BG took the kickoff and went 77 yards in 2:05, capping off with a Travis Greene 24 yard TD run.  With that, BG was up 14-3 with 7 minutes left in the first.

In past weeks, that might have been it.  Up 2 scores. BG would have just extended the lead and coasted home.  WMU was better than that.  They drove 77 yards in a 4-minute drive that resulted in a touchdown that made it 14-10.

Then they forced a three and out--hampered by a dropped pass on a long pass to Ronnie Moore that might have been a touchdown, his second potential big play drop--and then WMU scored again early in the second quarter to take a 17-14 lead and the hunter became the quarry.  It was the first time BG had trailed since the UMass game (take a note on that).

The two teams traded punts after that (making it 2 straight stops for the WMU defense) and then BG had an 80-yard drive in less than 2 minutes with Johnson hitting Teo Redding for a 42 yard TD to give BG the lead back, 21-17.

WMU started on their own 12, converted a 4th down deep in their own territory but punted from inside the 25.  BG started on its own 45 with 5:40 left in the half and an excellent chance to build the lead, which they did 5 plays later with Johnson hitting Roger Lewis again for a 31-yard TD...Tate doinked the XP...BG up 27-17.

WMU roared back into BG territory and then lost a fumble, giving BG a turnover, up 11, with 2:21 left in the half and BG starting on its own 34.  This is a moment of maximum danger for WMU.  BG is perfectly suited to get into the end zone and go up 3 scores heading into the locker room.

It was a battle WMU's defense had to win and they did.  BG made one first down and then had 2 incompletions and a sack and BG had failed to land the head shot it had available.

WMU took the ball at 1:32 and they went 3 and out and that opportunity still existed for BG when they got the ball back on the 36 with 1:03 left.

BG made 2 first downs and then Johnson was intercepted on a bubble screen that was returned (with penalty) down to the BG 14.  (At halftime, Coach Babers said that our players heard a whistle and didn't block the bubble screen, but the officials said they didn't hear it).  Anyway, the defense kept WMU out of the end zone but the Broncos got a FG...meaning that they had been faced with being down 34-17 and instead were down 27-20.

And then the Broncos took the opening kickoff and then ran a 8 play drive to tie the game at 27.

That's a pretty big turnaround in a short period of time.  The ultimate news, however, is that WMU did not score again.

BG took the lead for good on its next drive, a 77-yard drive featuring 34 rushing yards for Greene and Coppet and an eventual TD for #8.  BG lead 34-27---after the XP hit the upright and went through.

BG's defense earned a 3 and out and the Falcons made the last TD of the game on a 11 play, 3:48 long drive that featured a lot of Travis Greene, including the ultimate TD.  BG had a 2-score lead with 2:54 left in the 3Q.

The defense got another 3 and out and BG had another chance to close the game out as the third ended and the 4th began.  With a 2nd and 2 on the WMU 44 and seemingly headed the right way, Johnson was sacked twice and once again WMU's defense had kept the Broncos alive.

WMU is still 100% capable of scoring twice and tying the game, and now that had some stops, it was starting to get a little tense.  They drove into BG territory and had a 3rd and 3 on the 37.  BG's defense came up very big, blowing up a run for a loss of 4 and then tackling Corey Davis 1 yard shot of the "line to make" on 4th down for a turnover on downs.  Very big possession.  Still 10:24 left.

Given another opportunity to close the door, BG went 3 and out.  Joe Davidson--who is a monster weapon--bombed a 65 yard punt down to the WMU 5.  With 9:17 left, WMU faced a long field to drive.  Even if they did it, it was going to eat up time.

Which they did.  Mixing in a 44-yard completion, they ended up with a 1st and goal on the BG 4.  With their running game, you have to like their odds of getting into the end zone.  However, BG stoned a run on first down, forced incompletions on 2nd and 3rd and then sacked Terrell on 4th for a huge red zone stop.  WMU had used up half of the remaining time and ended with no points.

BG took the ball with 4:33 left.  WMU had all 3 time outs, which they used in getting BG off the field with only one first down.

Even so, WMU started with 2:44 left needing 2 scores and no timeouts...and Mack sealed the game with an INT and the Falcons had the big road victory sealed.'

More on the individual units to come, but the offense was good though not unstoppable and the defense bent but continued to make big plays when needed and stopped a very good offense at 27 points and finished with 6 straight scoreless stops.  That's a potent formula.

Say Hi to Your MAC East Champions

More to come tomorrow.....but for now, a great night to be a Falcon.  You go on the road and get that win?  By two touchdowns.  This is one to be proud of.  BG also is the first East team to beat a West team that wasn't named Eastern Michigan (this year).  And, it comes on the heels of BG whiffing on the West last year.

It was a complete team victory, complete with a goal line stand to seal the win.

Finally, I said this week that we would get an idea how good we actually are.  WMU is a very good team, and BG beat them by two scores on the road.

Finally, for all the struggle last year, this team is right where Coach Babers said it would be, which is a legit competitor for a second title in 3 years.

Again, more to come.  For now, savor the win Falcon fans.

25 Questions that are Buck'n

What is their body of work?

Everybody made fun, but PJ Fleck has turned the program around fast.  They had a loss I am sure they regret to Georgia Southern, They have won their last 5, including their last 4 by 196-62, including a 54-7 thumping of what everyone felt was a pretty decent Ball State team.  On the other hand, Miami and EMU were in that four as well.  They played a 41-39 game with CMU.

How many seniors and juniors on the two-deep?

26, which is pretty normal.  A lot of FR and SO, from those big recruiting classes.

Who are their statistical leaders?

FBS Ranks

2nd - Daniel Braverman, receptions per game
6th - Zach Terrell, passing efficiency
6th - Daniel Braverman, receiving yards per game
7th - Zach Terrell, completion percentage.
7th - Daniel Braverman, receiving TDs
10th - Zach Terrell, passing TDs
10th - Darius Phillips, Passes defended
14th - Jamauri Bogan, rushing yards per carry
15th - Ronald Zamort, Passes defended
15th- Darius Phillips, combined kick returns
15th - Corey Davis, receiving TDs

What is their turnover ratio?

In MAC play, they are +7, trailing only Bowling Green.

Offense:  (Unless noted all stats are MAC games only)

 How is their QB play?

It's great.  Zach Terrell is outstanding and this will feature probably the two best QBs in the MAC.  This is the best QB has faced since Paxton Lynch.

What is their scoring and yards per play?

They are 2nd in the MAC in scoring per game (to BG) and first in yards per play (7.9)

Can they run the ball?

They are the #1 rushing offense in the MAC, with 285 yards per game and 6.4 yards per carry.  That yards per carry is a half-yard better than the next team.

Do they pass the ball?

They are 2nd in the MAC in pass efficiency.  They complete 74% of their passes with 14 TDs over 0 (not a typo) INTs.  They have the lowest number of attempts in the conference, but average 14.6 yards per completion, which is slightly higher than BG (14.5).

How was their run/pass balance?

This is a running team.  They run on 64% of their plays.

Do they convert on 3rd Down?

Second in the MAC, right behind BG.

Do they score in the red zone?

They are very good, scoring 5.4 points per red zone trip.

Do they protect the quarterback?

They have given up 7 sacks which given their low number of passes is average protection.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play.

They are 2nd in the MAC in scoring defense (right behind BG).  They are, however, 9th in yards per play allowed.  Part of that is 9 turnovers and we will see if something else shows up to explain the discrepancy.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They are tied for 8th in yards per carry allowed.  They have the fewest number of rushing attempts against in the MAC.

Can they be passed on?

They are 6th in pass efficiency defense.  They allow 57% completions with 9 TDs and 4 INTs.  They allow 12.8 yards per completion.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

Here is the second reason for the points/yards discrepancy.  They lead the MAC in 3rd down defense, allowing only 27% conversion, which is less than half what the BG offense gets (58%).

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are not great here, allowing 5.1 points per trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

Not really.  They have only 8 sacks so far.

Special Teams:

Punting?

Bronco Nagurski

They are 2nd in net punting...right behind BG.  They have allowed 0 return yards.

Punt Return?

They have 6 PRs for 58 yards and no TDs.

Placekicking?

He's all right.  10 of 14, missed 2 inside 40 but 3 of 5 beyond 40.  Long of 42, 1 blocked.  (all games)

Kickoff?

They start on the 24, with no TDs.  In 63 KOs there have been 27 TBs. (all games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 28 which is typical.  (All games)  They have a big returner in Darius Phillips and BG needs to be careful they don't get burned as they did earlier in the year with players like him.

Miscellaneous: Overall atmospherics and intangibles.

A few things.

This is the best team BG has played since Memphis left town.  These guys are really good.  They can run and pass and play pretty good defense.  They don't turn the ball over...this is just a very solid football team.

It comes on a week where BG had a game where Coach Babers felt like the defense backslid a little bit.  That's going to need to be corrected against these guys.

If you want a model, I would see this one looking like the Memphis game.  Both teams in the 40s, coming to a late finish.

One thing that wasn't mentioned above is time of possession.  WMU leads the MAC in this stat and has two great RBs and the best rushing offense in the MAC.  Fleck said that a big part of their plan is to hold onto the ball to keep Matt Johnson sitting in a "chair."  BG's defense is going to have to get off the field.

And the offense is going to have to make the best of all its opportunities.

Here is the other intangible.  So, last season BG started November in a similar place.  BG had all but wrapped the East up and proceeded to lose its next four against the MAC West and be 1 minute from losing every game for the rest of the season.  That was a difficult time and can't have been any fun.  The same thing is possible here and it has to be in people's minds.  Now, BG struggled against the East last year and really didn't this year.  Still, over the next 7 days BG will play WMU and UT, possibly the two best teams in the MAC.  We'll see if we can bury last year's finish with some success this year, but they are our two biggest challenges in quite a while.