A Modest Proposal

As I was looking back at the statistics used to measure college football over the past couple of months, I noticed a couple of deficiencies in how things are tracked--specifically for offensive players.

I would like to (modestly) propose two new statistics which would be easy to track and provide a much more solid understanding of what a player has accomplished.  Just to be clear...I think these should appear right in the boxscore next to all the other stats.

1.  Individual First Downs

The basic unit of a football offense is the first down.  Obviously, touchdowns are more important, but first downs lead to touchdowns.  I think if you knew that a particular player was earning a significant number of the team's first downs, it would increase the perception of the contribution.  For example, I believe that Freddie Barnes, in addition to his 155 catches, contributed a significant number of 3rd down conversions for the team.  Once you had this number, you could divide it into the the total offensive first downs for the team (as well as passing and rushing first downs) and get a relative contribution number.

2.  20+ plays

This is another factor that I think is really important.  A 20 yard play is significant, both in terms of real estate but also in terms of momentum and energy.  This doesn't get adequately covered in the LONG category, because that gives you only their longest play, and no idea of how frequently such a play occurred.  It could be captured in average, but might not, especially for a receiver.  This stat could also be aggregated for the team, and that would seem to present us with a new way to evaluate how a team moves the ball and who contributed.

Just two humble and modest suggestions.

Football APR News is good

When Coach Brandon left Bowling Green, one of the things that was on the list to get fixed was the team's APR, which was pretty sad and had caused the program to lose scholarships.

The first returns are in, and the Clawson regime seems to be turning things around.

The single year APR for football jumped from 912 in 2007-08 to 960 for the 2008-09 reporting year, ranking third among all Mid-American Conference (MAC) schools. The multi-year rate climbed 11 points from 920 in 2007-08 to 931 for the 2008-09 reporting year, ranking among the top 30 increases in the country.

Third in the MAC is a good measure.  Nice job to everyone who worked hard for this.

I have always said that in the MAC, there is no reason to choose between winning and academic performance.  You can do both, and that expectation is clear for our program.

Thoughts on Run-Pass Balance, Part II

So, a couple days ago I wrote about run-pass balance, starting with the extreme ends---teams with playcalling mixes of 60% run or 60% pass.  Now, let's look at what happens when teams have more "balanced" playcalling patterns.

First, let's look at teams that "lean" to the run--meaning they run the ball between 50-60% of the time.  There were 46 teams in this category, and 21 of them scored above league average.  Clearly, if the most productive position to be in is to run the ball effectively 60% of the time or more, then this is second best.  Even so, being in this group is no guarantee of success.  In fact, in the aggregate, it scores just slight above the national average.

Boise is the best team in the group in terms of scoring.  Unlike the more extreme running group, running effectively is not much of a key indicator.  Teams with yards per running play more than 10% above the FBS average scored about FBS average 7 times out of 12. Teams between 4% and 8% above outscored the FBS average 10 times out of 10.

Finally, we get to the teams that passed the ball between 40% and 50%.  There were 45 of them and only 17 were above the FBS average.  This is 37.8%, which is slightly worse than the teams that passed the ball more than 60% of the time.  These teams were, in aggregate, more than one point below the FBS average.  On these measures, this is the category you don't want to be in.

It doesn't mean you cannot succeed...UC was in this grouping, as was Texas.

(As an aside, I would have thought in the beginning that this would have been an attractive category.)

To conclude:

• I started off looking at this because I believe that play mix is not the best way to measure balance.  
• I was a little surprised to find out that it does matter a little--teams with run-heavy play mixes are more likely to score more than teams with pass-heavy play mixes.
• However, with the exception of teams running the ball more than 60% of the time, there does not appear to be any category which produces teams even scoring above the FBS average.

Next, I will look at yards per play balance, which (I theorize) is the better indicator.

Quick and Dirty Preview

It goes without saying that significant (in volume, if nothing else) previews are coming for football.  Kevin of College Football Zealots asked me to answer some questions about the team, and I am always ready to contribute uninformed opinions.

What are the major strengths and biggest weaknesses of the team?

The Falcons are a very young team this year. Most of the offensive playmakers graduated and the defense also lost its strongest players, particularly at safety. The defensive line returns players who got a lot of snaps and would look to be a strong point, and I think we are strong at LB. While Freddie Barnes is gone, there is a lot of depth at WR.

The biggest issue facing the Falcons this year is obviously at QB. Tyler Sheehan took every meaningful snap last year. There are four players competing for the job, including a sophomore, two redshirt freshmen and a true freshmen. The ability of these QBs to be productive will be a key test.

Looking at the schedule who will be the first major test and why?

I believe the first major test will be Troy, the opening game of the season. Troy is a good program that BG managed to beat last year, but this game will be in Alabama, and with a young team opening the season on the road, it will be a very difficult test.

What team on the schedule do you fear the most?

The cop out answer is Michigan at the Big House, but in terms of games that matter, I worry about the game at Temple. We haven't played them in a few years. They have a very proficient running game, and we have a very un-proficent running defense in recent years. I think this will be a very tough challenge.

Who is the best player on your team that nobody talks about?

LB Eugene "Champ" Fells probably does not get enough notice. Also, on the D-line, Angelo Magnone is a very solid player who has seen a lot of snaps who is below the radar.

Who is the best offensive player on the team?

I'm going to say RB Willie Geter. He has never posted big numbers, partly because I don't think we have run blocked very effectively. If the running game comes around, and it will need to, he has the opportunity to have a good season.

Who is the most impactful defensive player on the team?

Champ Fells. See above.

What player(s) needs to step up this year in order for the team to reach it's full capability?

There are really three answers here, but I think of them more as positions.

First, the running game needs to step up. That will be seen as Willie Geter, but involves his blockers and other RBs (John Pettigrew, notably) too.

Second, the D-line needs to step up. They carry the experience on the defense, and we have really suffered up front in recent years. If the defense is going to keep us in games, it will have to start with them.

Third, the QB position needs to develop by the MAC season and find someone who can manage our offense.

Who is the top offensive newcomer that can make an impact this year (freshman, redshirt freshman or JUCO)?

Kamer Jordan is a JUCO WR who I believe can be very productive in our offense. Shaun Joplin (WR) also has huge playmaking upside.

Who is the top defensive newcomer that can make an impact this year (freshman, redshirt freshman or JUCO)?

This one is a little tougher. I'm going to say D-lineman Jarius Campbell or D-back Jerry Gates, a true freshmen who could see time in our backfield, which returns only one starter.

Gut feeling on the teams final record at the end of the regular season and what makes this a successful season in your eyes?

I haven't sat down and evaluated each game on the schedule, but on paper, as the season starts, .500 would be a successful season for this group.

Thoughts on Run-Pass Balance, Part I

As you know if you have read this blog in the past, I am interested in the concept of run-pass balance.  Here's a brief summary of why it interests me.

For a long time, this has been understood strictly as an issue of playcalling.  You had to run and pass in reasonable proportions in order to keep the defense off balance.   But that doesn't really represent a balanced offense.

You don't have a balanced offense until you can run the ball well enough to force the defense to put guys into the box, and then have a passing offense that can take advantage.  Or, you don't have a balanced offense until you can pass the ball well enough to force the defense to put guys out of the box and then have a good enough running game to take advantage of that.

You can call all the running plays you want, if the defense can stop them with 7 guys in the box, you aren't getting anywhere.

You might see this with a roughly even play mix between running and passing.  But you might not.

The best example I can come up with is those NIU teams from the 2000's.  They had NFL quality RBs pounding the ball behind a really good line.  But, if you crept those safeties in, they would rip your heart out over the top with a 50 yard TD pass.

With that in mind, I have been taking a look at some of the statistics from last season in FBS.

Oddly, the first thing I would like to point to is actually an tangent.  Simply put, if you have to have imbalance, you want it to be on the running side.

(Note:  these stats are all sack-adjusted.  I moved sacks FROM running stats, where the NCAA puts them and into passing stats, where they belong.  This includes the rushes and the attempts.)

• There were 19 FBS teams that ran the ball 60% of the time or more.  This is about 1 in 6 FBS teams.
• 15 of those teams scored about the FBS average for points per game.
• On the four that didn't, two of them ran the ball 60% of the time despite that their running games were putrid.  (Both Army and New Mexico State ran the ball that often despite that their running yards per play was less than 90% of the FBS average).
• The other two who were below the FBS average for scoring but ran the ball 60% of the time were within a point of the FBS scoring average.
• From the MAC, Temple and NIU fall in this category.

It appears from this that if you can run the ball 60% of the time and be at or above the FBS average for yards per play, you have a good chance of scoring effectively.  Remember, we're only talking averages here.  It does not require an exemplary running game.

Let's look at teams that pass the ball more than 60% of the time.

• There were 10 teams in this category.  6 of them were below the FBS average in points.  Only two, (Houston and Texas Tech) were more than 10 points over the average.
• Miami and New Mexico were both significantly below the average, and, like Army and New Mexico State, they were passing the ball often but lousy at it.
• BG is also in this category, and the Falcons were 1 point over the FBS average.

So, it would appear if you want to have playcalling imbalance, it is better to have it on the running side.

Next:  the teams in the middle.

Some Early Season Falcon Football Rankings

Well, here in the doldrums of summer, there are a couple of rankings in for the Falcon football team.

The College Gridiron 360 blog (an excellent product of the Orlando Sentinel) ranks BG #96 out of 120 FBS teams.  This doesn't sound too good, but in fact it is higher than five other MAC teams, projecting a mid-conference finish for the Falcons.  This is pretty sad.

EMU was the lowest ranked team in all of FBS, with Miami (117), Toledo (111), Ball State (106), Buffalo (98).

Meanwhile, the Sporting News ranks BG #66, which, frankly, given what we have coming back, is pretty hard to buy.  Only Temple is ranked higher in the MAC.  I'm not saying we won't be any good, but on paper (which is all anyone has to work with), we don't really stack up well given the losses we had last year.

First 2011 Football Verbal

With a tip of the hat to azz.com, the Falcons have their first football verbal.  His name is Alex Huettel and he is entering his senior season at Pickerington North.  He is a Center....6'4" and 275, and as with most lineman, information on him is hard to track down.  He was all conference last year (first team) and had offers from about a half dozen MAC schools.

He joins Jarius Campbell and TE Alex Bayer as Pickerington North players in the Falcon program.

Welcome to BG, Mr. Huettel.