Thoughts on Run-Pass Balance, Part I

As you know if you have read this blog in the past, I am interested in the concept of run-pass balance.  Here's a brief summary of why it interests me.

For a long time, this has been understood strictly as an issue of playcalling.  You had to run and pass in reasonable proportions in order to keep the defense off balance.   But that doesn't really represent a balanced offense.

You don't have a balanced offense until you can run the ball well enough to force the defense to put guys into the box, and then have a passing offense that can take advantage.  Or, you don't have a balanced offense until you can pass the ball well enough to force the defense to put guys out of the box and then have a good enough running game to take advantage of that.

You can call all the running plays you want, if the defense can stop them with 7 guys in the box, you aren't getting anywhere.

You might see this with a roughly even play mix between running and passing.  But you might not.

The best example I can come up with is those NIU teams from the 2000's.  They had NFL quality RBs pounding the ball behind a really good line.  But, if you crept those safeties in, they would rip your heart out over the top with a 50 yard TD pass.

With that in mind, I have been taking a look at some of the statistics from last season in FBS.

Oddly, the first thing I would like to point to is actually an tangent.  Simply put, if you have to have imbalance, you want it to be on the running side.

(Note:  these stats are all sack-adjusted.  I moved sacks FROM running stats, where the NCAA puts them and into passing stats, where they belong.  This includes the rushes and the attempts.)

• There were 19 FBS teams that ran the ball 60% of the time or more.  This is about 1 in 6 FBS teams.
• 15 of those teams scored about the FBS average for points per game.
• On the four that didn't, two of them ran the ball 60% of the time despite that their running games were putrid.  (Both Army and New Mexico State ran the ball that often despite that their running yards per play was less than 90% of the FBS average).
• The other two who were below the FBS average for scoring but ran the ball 60% of the time were within a point of the FBS scoring average.
• From the MAC, Temple and NIU fall in this category.

It appears from this that if you can run the ball 60% of the time and be at or above the FBS average for yards per play, you have a good chance of scoring effectively.  Remember, we're only talking averages here.  It does not require an exemplary running game.

Let's look at teams that pass the ball more than 60% of the time.

• There were 10 teams in this category.  6 of them were below the FBS average in points.  Only two, (Houston and Texas Tech) were more than 10 points over the average.
• Miami and New Mexico were both significantly below the average, and, like Army and New Mexico State, they were passing the ball often but lousy at it.
• BG is also in this category, and the Falcons were 1 point over the FBS average.

So, it would appear if you want to have playcalling imbalance, it is better to have it on the running side.

Next:  the teams in the middle.