Falcons Hoop Predictions....Game by Game....

So, my annual exercise in humility begins again. Here I am--before the season--predicting the results of each and every Falcon game. I take my medicine...here are last year's picks and results....last year, I had 17 right and 9 wrong which isn't bad, really. I picked that we would go o-for-the-road in the MAC.

Anyway, here's this year's list. A couple points:

• I can't pick the bracket buster because I don't know who we are playing. Get over it.
• I have us 14-14, and 7-9 in the MAC. Even a .500 season is a big improvement for our team.
• We could beat Western Carolina, but if we do, I would have had us 8-4 in the pre-season, and I just don't see that. We could also beat Oakland.
• On the other hand, I have us beating Temple, who is really a poor team. And its at home. We play some bad teams--Temple, Indiana State, Northern Colorado, Eastern Illinois, and Duquesne are all poor teams.

That's how I see the first season of Orrball. I'd love to see it be better. There's a scenario where we gather up all the new coach momentum and put a decent year together, but the closer I look at our team against Wayne State, the more I see how shallow I fear we are. We are farther away than we looked at the end of last year.

1/09/07	vs. Western Carolina	Cincinnati, Ohio	L
11/10/07	vs. Belmont	Cincinnati, Ohio	L
11/11/07	at Cincinnati	Cincinnati, Ohio	L
11/17/07	vs. Morehead State	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
11/24/07	vs. Temple	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
11/27/07	at Furman	Greenville, S.C.	W
12/01/07	at Oakland	Rochester, Mich.	L
12/06/07	at Northern Colorado	Greeley, Colo.	W
12/16/07	vs. Illinois State	Bowling Green, Ohio	L
12/22/07	at Indiana State	Terre Haute, Ind.	W
12/29/07	vs. Eastern Illinois	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
01/02/08	vs. Duquesne	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
01/05/08	vs. Ohio	Bowling Green, Ohio	L
01/12/08	at Kent State	Kent, Ohio	L
01/17/08	vs. Buffalo	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
01/20/08	at Akron	Akron, Ohio	L
01/23/08	vs. Miami	Bowling Green, Ohio	L
01/27/08	vs. Northern Illinois	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
01/30/08	at Ball State	Muncie, Ind.	W
02/02/08	at Western Michigan	Kalamazoo, Mich.	L
02/06/08	vs. Central Michigan	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
02/10/08	vs. Toledo	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
02/13/08	at Eastern Michigan	Ypsilanti, Mich.	L
02/16/08	vs. Akron	Bowling Green, Ohio	W
02/19/08	at Ohio	Athens, Ohio	L
02/23/08	TBD (Bracket Buster Road Game)	TBA	TBA
03/01/08	vs. Kent State	Bowling Green, Ohio	L
03/04/08	at Buffalo	Buffalo, N.Y.	W
03/09/08	at Miami	Oxford, Ohio	L

Oh, the permutations you'll permutate, the possibilities you'll cogitate....

1. Can BG win the East outright.

Answer. Yes.

Miami would have to lose to Akron and @OU
Buffalo would have to lose to BG and Kent
BG would have to beat Buffalo
OU would have to lose to Akron and beat Miami.

Under that scenario, we are only two loss team.

2. Can we win any other way?

Yes, in fact. Like this....

Miami would have to lose to Akron and @OU
Buffalo would have to lose to BG and beat Kent.
BG would have to beat Buffalo
OU would have to lose to Akron and beat Miami.
Only BG and Buffalo are left with two losses
BG beats Buffalo due to tiebreaker.

Otherwise, I don't see it.

We have a shot if we end up in a three way tie with OU and Buffalo, but it gets really complicated. We'd all be 1-1 among the teams in the tie. Now it depends on who is fourth. If its Miami, then OU would win, since they would be the only team with a win over Miami. If Akron ends up fourth, it would probably be BG, since under this scenario Akron would have to have beaten OU and that would leave BG and Buffalo, and we would have to have beaten Buffalo.

If we end up in a 3-way tie with Miami and Buffalo, Miami has beaten both teams in the tie and would win the tie-breaker.

If we end up in a three way tie with Miami and Ohio (assuming an Ohio win over Miami), OU would win having beat us and Miami.

So, what do you root for this Saturday?

We want Akron to beat Ohio, pretty much. It hurts us in that three way tie scenario, but helps us in the two more probable scenarios.

The weak point in all these scenarios is that we need an Akron team that did not look good Friday at the Doyt to beat Miami and OU. Seems really unlikely.

If Miami ends up beating Akron, we're out.

That is the only game with "playoff implications" this week.

Finally, you might wonder if 3 losses could get you in. Answer is no: Either BG (by beating Buffalo) or Buffalo (by beating BG and at worst losing to Kent) will end up with two losses in the East.

A point I forgot to make....

I thought we had a good game plan. We established the short pass attack, and then moved down the field for more yards. I think it worked with with Akron's unusual defensive attack.

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Slash is back! Remember Cordell Stewart of the Steelers? Meet the new Slash, Anthony Turner. He plays QB, WR, and TB....and makes us very hard to defend.

But let's look at the story of last night's game from the start......

To start with the big picture, we were playing the #2 in the MAC in total defense, without our best receiver and our starting TB, and with an attack that has been limping along for weeks.

What we did was score on every meaningful possession in the game, except for a missed 52 yard FG (hit the crossbar) at the end of the second half.

Pretty good.

How did we do it?

First, we put Anthony Turner into the game and let him make some plays. He rushed for over 100 yards. He ran a great play action and threw a TD to a wide open Chris Wright. He caught three passes.

AT is very valuable to us right now. Fans have been clamoring for him to draw the D in and throw a pass, which he did finally. He is a good enough RB to be a TB, and if teams have to respect the pass, he's just really tough to defend. It says a lot about him that he has accepted his role and is being such a productive role player---and because of that, his role is expanding.

We broadened out the receiver corps. Freddie Barnes had 8 grabs, but we also got Kelly, Brighton, Wright, Parks, and others into the game.

We saw a resurgent Tyler Sheehan, 26-36 for 268 yards, 2 Tds and no INTs, and only one sack. He was accurate, hitting most of the receivers on the numbers and in stride--very important for our offense.

If Sheehan can perform like this, we become very difficult to defend, as well.

Basically, we steamrolled a really solid defense.

As for the defense, they certainly got their yards, as everyone does. We were strong in the red zone, and forced three turnovers and made the plays we needed to win the game. Among them:

The games most precarious moment came at the end of the first half. We had just missed a 52 yard FG with :45 left, and Akron had charged right down the field and were in scoring position. It was 24-6 at the time, and they get a big lift to go in 24-13. Their elusive QB Carleton Jackson was running for what could have been a score, when true FR. Glen Stanley poked the ball free and stopped the drive.

Then, on the first drive of the second half, PJ Mahone picked off a pass and showed why he was an all-state RB in HS,and brought it back for a pick-six to put the game out of reach.

Kenny Lewis also had a big night--a forced and recovered fumble, and three passes defended.

Glen Stanley had a pass defended, too. With John Haneline out for the season with a broken foot, Stanley is a key player and I like how he plays. He planted the elusive Mr. Jackson once--something our veterans generally failed to do.

So, far from a perfect effort, but a winning effort. As I will demonstrate later, our chances of winning the East are not gone, though lots has to happen right. Our chances of having a winning record and being bowl eligible are much better, and for now, that's what we have to have our eye on.

Falcons Smoke Zips

Full update tomorrow...Falcons blew the Zips out 44-20, and it wasn't really that close. Nice day to be a Falcon fan, and nice to see us rally in November, unlike last year. Sheehan had a big game, as did AT.

Zippity Doo Dah

No time, this week, for a full review of tonight's opponent, the Akron Zips. Suffice it to say we're favored by 7 points. Yes, you read that right.

Don't know how informed that is. I've heard that if you know what's going on, betting on MAC football is easy money. Not sure if the line knows that two of our top skill players, Willie Geter and Corey Partridge are not expected to play. Reports are that Tyler is near 100%.

Anyhoo, Akron has lost to Temple and Buffalo--not the shame that we thought early in the year. The Temple loss was at home. They have also won at WMU (not the coup we expected early in the year) and beat Kent. They're having trouble scoring points, which is good news for us.

My assessment is that we shouldn't be -7 to anyone in our conference right now. I'll be happy if we can gut out a win before what promises to be a sparse crowd at the Doyt. Early in the year I thought we were a year away. I just think a winning season and a strong finish would be a great boost to making next year a Championship season.

Seriously.....A QB Controversy???

No one in the game of football is more popular than the backup QB. No one is possessed of more superpowers, more omnipotence, more clairvoyance, more ability to leap tall buildings, more x-ray vision, and even more of whatever Aquaman did, than the backup QB.

Welcome to the Falcon Nation. Show your passport and declare any gifts before entering the country.

After losing 3 out of 4, some Falcon fans are now calling for Anthony Glaud to take the helm, only a month or so after predicting that Tyler Sheehan would eclipse Omar's single season yardage record.

The line of thinking is two-fold, both reasonable on the surface, but unable to stand up to scrutiny.

The first is that the offense needs a dual-threat QB--one who can run and pass, ala Josh Harris, and, people believe, Anthony Glaud. Tyler Sheehan is more in the Omar mode. And yes, we did move the ball with Omar and he didn't run, but he was an exceptional talent, the argument goes. Glaud's decent showings in mop up roles and the Spring Game have added fuel to this argument, which began when Glaud was recruited.

I only suggest this: we have scant evidence to know whether Glaud is ready to play or not. Mop up duty isn't a true test, and neither is the spring game. Coach sees him in practice everyday, and feels Sheehan is our best choice.

Which brings us to the second point. Coach said after the OU loss that Tyler has been hurt and unproductive since the WKU game. This is largely the first we have heard of this. One thing is certain....the first four games and the last four games are different stories. Look here:

First four games 127 of 190, 1304 yards, 10 Tds, 4 Ints, 10 sacks, 66.8% and 6.9 yds/attempt
Last four games 76 of 136, 848 yards, 5 Tds, 6 INT, 14 sacks, 55.9% and 6.2 yds/attempt

Doesn't take a genius.....everything that should be up is down and everything that should be down is up.

Which introduces the question....if Sheehan isn't healthy, perhaps he shouldn't be playing, especially on a short week with Friday's game.

Again, I can only say this. Coach must believe that Tyler gives us a better chance to win than Glaud does, even with Tyler being hurt.

My opinion is that Tyler is our QB, and I think he has the ability (as he showed early in the early) to manage the offense and get us to the MAC Championship. Glaud may well have the ability, but right now, that ability is theoretical. I don't understand how people assume a guy is ready who never see him in any significant playing or practice time. He might be ready...I just don't know what makes people so sure.

In the meantime, until proven otherwise, Tyler is the future of this program.