Ball State MBB Preview

It's a cold winter, and a cold month or so for the men's basketball team, which has lost three in a row and 5 out of the last 7.  BG and UB are tied for the last playoff spot, with Ball State a half-game behind.

It's not looking great right now.

At one point, Ball State was a MAC basketball power.  From 1981 to 2000, they appeared in the NCAA Tournament seven times in 19 years.  That includes a Sweet 16 appearance.  It was a regular thing, and they had the best fan base in the MAC.  Since then, not so much.  They have not played in the MAC title game since 2000.

Michael Lewis is their current coach and is in his fourth year.  He has losing records the last 2 seasons and this year they are 7-14/5-14/3-6.  They started with a KenPom of 256, and now it is 309.

They were picked 8th in the MAC and 11th in Blue Ribbon. They lost their first 5 MAC games this year, then rallied to beat OU, CMU, and NIU, before losing to UT last time out to snap the streak.

Ball State has won 6 of the last 10 over BG, though the Falcons are 3-1 in the last 4 and the last 2 at the Stroh.

BG is a 12.5-point favorite. Dang.

They have had at least 3 players miss significant time.

This sets up very much like the CMU game.  (All Stats MAC ONLY). BSU is #10 on offense and #11 on defense.  On defense, they are last in allowing the shot, last in defending the 3FG, and 10th in defending the 2FG.  There's no reason BG shouldn't make shots against this team...

There are obstacles.  Beyond that, BSU is solid... they lead the MAC in forcing turnovers and are #3 in keeping teams off the line and #7 in defensive boards. (BG was getting to the line a lot earlier in the year, but in their last four losses, they have been under 25%.  The D1 average is 35%.)  Last FT trivia...BSU earns the bad luck award...they are last in FT% against, at 81%.

If BG is ready to defend again, they should be able to handle the Cards.  They are last in EFG...and last in making 2FGs and 8th in 3FGs.  They take an average number of 3FGs.  They are also last in offensive rebounding, so if there are misses, you hope there are chances to run.  The fewer half-court possessions BG has, the better. BSU is #1 at taking care of the ball, #7 at getting to the line, and #4 at FT shooting.

 They are led by Armoni Zeigler, who transferred from St. Peter's. He is scoring 17.2 PPG.  He's not efficient...making 46% on 2FG and 32% on 3FG.  He does make 84% at the line (#8), and he draws 5 fouls a game. He also leads the team with 5.4 RPG and has 30 turnovers, which, given the amount of time he has the ball, isn't as much as it seems.

Davion Hill is scoring 14.1 PPG. He transferred from NW Florida State College. (Also Trey Diggs). He's 6'2" and makes 58% from 2FG and 37% from 3FG. He takes excellent care of the ball.

They are not a big team...#328 in average height.  They play 8 players for 10 minutes or more, though with some injuries. They had a full lineup at UT, except for Joey Hart, who has not played since 12/20.