Miami University Too Much for BG MBB

BG lost to the better team.  That's just a very good basketball team. It was better than the first meeting, where the Redhawks blew the lead over 20 in the first half and coasted home.  In this one, the first 8 minutes were very competitive, with 11 lead changes and a lot of effective scoring.  The problem is that you have to be able to keep it up for 40 minutes.  From about 11 minutes to 4 minutes, MU went on a 21-3 run that essentially decided the game.

BG didn't fold.  They would put some things together and get the lead down to 10, and then MU would come down and answer with a 3FG.  It got as close as 8, but not closer.

The news from the bracketology guys is "good."  Good if you just think Miami should be in the tourney.  "Good" if they have to play a play-in game.

I will say this, they do not seem to be playing tight.  With what they have on the line, they seem loose and relaxed.  It is something to watch.

BG didn't have a good offensive game, but it wasn't terrible.  They scored 1.04 points per possession.  Obviously, not nearly enough. MU packed their defense in, and it did seem to work.  BG made 40% from 3FG, which is good, but only 46% from 2FG. In fact, BG was 55% inside the restricted area, while MU made 69%. We were also 5 of 14 in the non-restricted paint...below 50% inside the paint.

To be sure, there was lots of traffic due to things being packed in.  We tried 39% from 3FG, our most in MAC play.  I don't think we're set up for more.

I know this is illogical, but finishing at the rim has been a program issue spanning hundreds of players. I remember Orr saying we had to learn to make "zero footers."

Miami scored 1.23 points per possession... which is their 10th-best in D1 games this year, FWIW.  Almost exactly what they shot in the first game.

Their EFG was 63%, making 61% from 2FG and 43% from 3FG...get this...they have been BETTER THAN THAT 10 times this year in D1 games.

They took good care of the ball and got to the line a lot.  They don't crash the boards, and why would you?  Get back and keep the game in the half-court.  BG was 11 of 15 at the line, and MU was 18 of 27, which is poor for them.

I have to say, you know, if you read here, I am a metrics guy.  But the eye test?  This team could be a Sweet 16 team.

Javonte Campbell had 24 points.  He was 7 of 15 and 2 of 3 from the field, 4 of 6 at the line, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 3 turnovers.

Mayer Wol came on late, scoring 15 of 3 of 6 and 3 of 6 shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and 4 turnovers.

Shackelford had scored 12 on 1 of 4 and 3 of 5 shooting. Towns and Glover had 6 rebounds each.

So, the beat goes on.  BG has three games left.  WMU, UMass and @EMU.  With two wins, they go to 9 wins and almost certainly make the tournament--in fact, that could be certain by the end of today.  The WMU game is an absolute must-win, though.

Football Update

 Probably time for a football update.

The biggest news is that Sacramento State has joined the Mid-American Conference.  There's been a lot of debate on it...it is one of those situations where more than one thing can be true.

In my opinion:

• It is objectively ridiculous.
• In a world where eligibility has no meaning, guys are playing for 7 years, etc...the word ridiculous has almost been stripped of its meaning. The move makes "sense."

In Logan Roy's words, the MAC "screwed them out."  What started at $10M ended up at an $18M dowry, plus paid charter flights to Sacramento, and we don't pay them anything from our conference share.

Boy, did Sac State want this.  Just amazing.  It's football only.  And only for five years.  Rather than an exit fee, there's an expiration date.  My guess is that Sac State hopes to go elsewhere in year 6, but if they want to stay, the MAC will get another chance to squeeze the IV tube.

Something else is revealed, I think. There's a general belief that the MAC is at risk...as is every part of the existing status quo.  Even $18M is 4% of the MAC's overall athletic spending.  Some have said it stabilized the conference...and my guess is that means keeping Akron and Kent on the football field.

Tom Hanks went to Sacramento State.

Their coach is Alonzo Carter, who was once a backup dancer for MC Hammer.  When BG plays them, we will have an MC Hammer dancer and a Broadway Performer on the sidelines.

In other news, DB Coach Derrick Jackson left the BG staff to go to Louisville.  He was a Loeffler holdover.  It's too bad.  I think our D-backs have generally punched above their weight.  No word on the new coach.  It will be interesting to see whether Coach George has a network large enough to keep the staff stocked.  That's an open question right now.

Coach was interviewed by David Briggs.  The gist of the article was that even though BG brought back only 2 starters, Coach George feels like we got better.

What was that about the definition of ridiculous?

I've looked at the players who came in...there was one position group where everybody left, and not a lot was done to bring in transfers, and that's the O-line.

For context, 760 snaps was a full season for BG last year.  Here are the career snap counts for the returning Falcon linemen.  Sanchez came from Northern Arizona, where most of his snaps also occurred.  Thomas and Bolyn saw their only real action last year. 

When Loeffler came in, we had inexperienced and young lines.  These guys are at least a little older.

What I hear is Bolyn is going to play C.

In terms of incoming,  I believe Travis Robertson will start. He's a true FR and a 3-star who committed to BG, switched to UCLA before switching back.  He's ranked as one of our top recruits ever at BG. He's an early enrollee, and I believe he will start.

As for the other position, who knows?  One of the other guys above?  There was one transfer,  Gabe Funk from App State, where he did not play. He was a two-star out of HS, with offers from most MAC teams.

It may be archaic, but BG has re-tooled at QB and TE...maybe at WR, and Austyn Dendy is back.  None of that will matter if we can't block.

I know the staff knows that, so they were either comfortable working with what they had or couldn't do any better.  If Novosad spends the entire season running for his life and our backs are being hit behind the line of scrimmage, we'll know the answer.

MAC MBB Permutations

 

Oh Boy! Undefeated Redhawks At Millett

Well, the Falcons drop into the national spotlight tonight, battling the undefeated Miami Redhawks in what will be a rocking Millett Hall.

Miami might be having the most remarkable season in MAC history.  It is certainly the most successful.  Nobody goes undefeated anymore.  It's just been incredible to watch.  What an experience.

And yet, I think they feel like nothing's been accomplished yet.  Don't get me wrong--in a sane, just world, they would be locks for an at-large bid to the tournament even if they don't go undefeated, even if they lose more than one. But they can't feel that way, because teams with, for example, 30-3 records have been left out before.

Lunardi has them at #11, which is right where he has the play-in games, meaning they are ranked right at the cut line.  The problem is the pre-MAC schedule, which was among the lowest in D1.  To me, at 25-5 that would make a difference.  They have carried it through conference play... so far... and they should be playing in the tourney.

I'd like to take you back to March 5, 2000.  Quarter-finals.  BG is 22-6 and #1 seed. Having a special season. They are up 3, and time is running out.  Jason Grunkemeyer hit a 35-footer at the buzzer to force OT, in which BG scored only 2 points and lost.  No at-large bid came for the Falcons.  It is probably the greatest heartbreak in our program's history.  It's basketball's Fat Punter.

Let's return the favor. It has been long enough.

Today, Jason is the Deputy AD at Maine, btw.

BG played them back in the dark days of December, between Christmas and New Year.  The final deficit was 10, but the game was not close.  Miami ripped off a 29-4 run, led by 26 at the half and by 17 with 10 left.

Miami is just a scoring machine.  They are #1 in the MAC in offensive efficiency, #1 in shooting, and #3 in the country.  They take 46% of their FGA from 3FG and make 37% (#4 in MAC, #13 in D1) and they lead the make with 64% on 2FG, #3 in the country).

They combine that with being 4th in taking care of the ball and 2nd at getting to the line, where they make 78%, #2 in the MAC.  That's enough to be a formidable scoring machine. The only thing they aren't great at is offensive rebounds, where they rank #12, undoubtedly because they don't crash the boards.

They are #3 in defense. They are #7 in defending the shot, #6 against the 3FG, and #8 on the 2FG. They are 5th at forcing turnovers, #4 on the defensive boards, and #3 at keeping teams off the line.

This is just a locked-down team.  BG's going to have to play great in every phase.  They are going to have to play great defense and make some shots.  Probably a lot.

Peter Suder is their leading scorer with 16.5 PPG on 59%/37%/78% shooting.  He adds 5.2 RPG and 64 assists.  He had 17, 8 rebounds and 5 assists in the first game.

Brant Byers scores 15.9 PPG, making 62%/43%/80%.  He's #1 in the MAC in total shooting, which is those three added up. He had 17 and 6 in the first game.

Eian Elmer is scoring 14.3 PPG on 67%/43%/77%, #2 in total shooting.  He leads the team with 5.8 RPG.  He is #1 in the MAC in EFG%. 

Luke Skaljac scores 13 PPG on 65%/31%/75% shooting. He has 62 assists. He scored 15 PPG and 5 assists in the first game.

Antwone Woolfork scores 10.5 and leads the MAC in 2FG at 75%.  He scored 14 in the first game without missing a FG or FT attempt.

Basketball Set Back Decades, Kent beats BG MBB

Well, that makes it 14 straight.

Kent continued their mastery with a defense-oriented slugfest victory at the Stroh, beating BG 78-71.

It was often hard to watch. There were 54 fouls called and 76 FTs.  BG made only 20 baskets; Kent made 21.  

And let me say this.  I don't often complain about the officials.  They are never great, usually OK. This was an awfully officiated game.  When you have coaches screaming and yelling after every call, you know it is being mishandled.

Also, they should watch this...

The first 10 minutes were very close, with no one leading by more than 4.  BG went on a 7-0 run to lead by 7 with about 8 minutes left.  BG was up 6 with 6:13 to play when something odd happened...Coach Senderhoff got a T, BG made one FT, and led by 7.

That's not the weird part.

At that point, BG had 5 fouls, and Kent had 10.  The refs apparently thought Senderhof had a point, because they didn't call another foul on Kent for the rest of the half.  Six straight against BG.  Really?  Kent went from 10 fouls to none? 

And the score?  Kent 14, BG 2...Flashes by 5 at the break.

I mean, come on.

Kent did what they usually do, which is to inch a lead forward instead of getting a big run.  They got it to 9 with 15 to play.  BG chipped it to 4, but it was back to 9 with 10:33 left to play.  They kept building and hit it to 13 points with 8 minutes left. 

BG scored the next 9 points to get it back to 4 when Morgan Safford hit another 3 to quell the rally.

It was a 9-point lead with about 4 left, and BG went on a 9-2 run to cut the lead to 2 with 1:48 left.

Huge possession.  Kent comes down, and Shackleford committed his fifth foul, of which at least 4 were dumb fouls. Safford hit both FTs, and it was a 4-point lead with 1:39 left to play.

They fouled Troy Glover, who in all fairness had made 7 of 9 at the line so far in the game and has clearly improved at the line....but he missed them both.  

More FTs.  Kent split a pair and pushed the lead to 5.  Campbell got to the basket and cut it to 3.

This recap is as monotonous as it was in real life. There was not another one-score possession in the game, and BG lost by 5.

BG did not play a bad game on defense, holding KSU to 1.08 PPP.  Their EFG was only 47%. They made 39% from 2FG and 7 of 19 inside the restricted area.  They made 37% from 3FG, which is decent, and 51% of their shots were from 3FG. BG held them to 25% on the offensive boards, a significant accomplishment.  Their FT rate was 75%, second-worst of the year for the BG defense.  That means they shot 40 FTs and only 53 FGs.  They made 28 out of 40, for 70%, which is average.

Meanwhile, the Falcons scored .98 points per possession, their 6th worst this year.  EFG was 43.4%, with a very solid 50% on 2FG but 4 of 19 (21%) from 3FG.  BG did nothing on the offensive boards, had 3 more turnovers than Kent, and had a FTR rate of 69%.  BG made 25 of 36 FTs (69%), slightly below average.  Kent was +3 at the line.

Perfectly captures what a terrible game it was.

Campbell had 22 for BG, making 7 of 10 and 0 of 3.  He made 8 of 10 at the line.  Also, 4 assists, 3 TO, and 3 steals.

Glover had 17 and 7 rebounds, plus 4 blocked shots.  He scored 17...5 of 5 from 2FG and 7-11 at the line.

Sam Towns had 13, but it took a lot...making 2 of 6 from 2FG and 2 of 4 from 3FG.  Also, 11 rebounds.

So BG ends the day in sixth place.  They are still very likely to make it to Cleveland, but it would be nice to get a 5 seed.

Next up...America's preppy sweetheart.  Let's ruin it for them.

MBB Permutations

 

Can BG MBB Make it 4 MAC Wins In a Row

 Last year, starting on February 21, when Javonte Campbell daggered the Rockets at the buzzer, BG started a winning streak that ran to four straight MAC games.  BG moved from 4-9 to 8-9 and eventually qualified for Cleveland.  This year, the hole isn't as big, and we're already at 3 in a row...this is a tough week, though.  However, to the extent you are thinking you want to make that big run and win the MAC, these are the teams you will need to beat at Rocket Arena.

The next opponent is Kent State. They are 22-9/20-9/10-3 and in 3rd place in the MAC.  Their losses in conference are to Miami and Akron, the top two teams in the MAC, and then an inexplicable loss to CMU in Mt. Pleasant.

BG played a really tough game against Kent and probably should have won the game.  BG played with Ruffin out and Thomas essentially out. The score range was 13 points.  If you recall, BG was up 1 with :13 to play and had a stop.  But Campbell lost the ball in his legs, and Delrecco Gillespie picked it up and scored, putting Kent in the lead, and they went on to win.

It was a big offensive game for both teams.  It was BG's best offense in a losing effort this year.

Kent has now beaten BG 13 straight. It has been 2,544 days since we beat Kent.

All in all, this isn't the greatest Kent team.  They are #6 in offense and #5 in defense.

On offense, they are 11th in shooting, 10th from 2FG, and from 3FG. They are 5th in trying 3FGs. Their offensive strengths are offensive rebounding and getting to the line, both of which they are #1 at.  They are good at the line, shooting 76%. BG is #2 on the defensive boards, and that will be a key battle.  BG needs those boards to get into transition. Our work on the boards is pretty consistent, although UT really crashed the boards last time.

Back when we played all zone with Orr, Kent always had a game plan for attacking it.

Flipping it around, Kent is #2 against the shot, but they don't force turnovers. They are pretty good on the defensive boards (#5) and #8 at putting opponents on the line. They are #3 in defending the 3FG and the 2FG.  And yet, BG scored against them last time.

Kent is led by Delrecco Gillespie, a truly outstanding big man. He had 32 points and 10 rebounds in the first one. (MAC games only). He averages a double-double, 19.1/12.8.  That's 3rd in the MAC in scoring and 1st in rebounding.  He shoots 56% from 2FG and 81% at the line.  He insists on trying 3FGs and makes 29%. He's #2 in blocked shots. He draws 6 fouls a game. He's a career Flash who really rounded into form this year.

Rob Whaley is Gillespie's cousin and transferred from UNLV.  He is scoring 13.5 PPG on 55% 2FG shooting. He battled four trouble in the first meeting.

Morgan Safford transferred from Miami. He is scoring 12.8 PPG 49%/29%/82%.

Cian Medley leads the MAC with 6.9 APG.

So here we go.  BG will need that same all-possession intensity, because you know Kent will bring it.  Let's hope for a big crowd after the UT win.  BG is a 2.5-point favorite.  Let's snap that streak.

BG Wins, Hated Rockets Fall.

Sent with love from all Falcon Fans🧡#AyZiggy | #FlyAroundandFindOut pic.twitter.com/PdxrvbrdpQ

— BGSU Men's Basketball (@BGSUMBB) February 15, 2026

Now that's a Valentine's Card.  What a game that was.  Our boys put together the performance they have been capable of all season.  They seized the lead, and they never allowed a serious run after it.  They closed the game under pressure.  They won a game where every possession was a knife fight.  And they sent a big crowd home happy, hoping to see them again on Tuesday.

Well done, guys.  That was sweet.

The game was tied after 6 minutes, and BG was up 3 a minute later. UT went on a 9-0 run to take a 6-point lead with 10 to play.  You're paying attention now, as a Falcon fan.  They stem the tide, chip away, and with 6 minutes left, Aidan Goins (he's rounding around) scored to give BG the lead.

BG never trailed again.

The Goins hoop was part of a 13-1 run to give BG a 9-point lead.  Unfortunately, UT scored the next 7 to trail by 2 going into the locker room...Trey Glover blocked a shot by Blyden to preserve the lead at the buzzer.

Coming out of the locker room, BG set the tone for the second half.  BG scored the first 8 points to take a 10-point lead, and the chaser had been identified.

The Rockets chased it to 7 with 17 to play, but BG scored the next 6 to lead by 13 with 15 minutes left and then led by 16 with 12 to play.

The game is far from over.  We didn't have one of those famous airgaps...BG battled hard the whole way.  UT got it to 10 with 9 to play and 9 with 8 left. 

What happened next?  BG scored the next 8 points.  It was not closer than 10 again.

In all, BG essentially led by 10 or more for 16 minutes.

With 10 minutes left, UT went to full-court pressure.  Kowalcyzk is going to try to shift the dynamic, which wasn't working for them.  For all the times that our team has melted under full-court pressure, BG handled it perfectly.  Ball movement.  Don't dribble too much.  If the ball gets in the corner, let them chase and get it out.  Be patient.  It was good to watch.

So, the Falcons win by 10.  They haven't beaten UT by 10 since 2008 when STAN JOPLIN was their coach. Orr's first season... the last three seasons have been split.  Maybe one more meeting lies ahead.

BG won both ends of the game.  The Falcons scored 1.22 points per possession. They are 6-1 over 1.2 this year. BG shot 57% EFG. That's 46% from 2FG, which is OK, but 52% from 3FG, with 36% of shots from 3FG, which is high for us.  But the key was turnovers.  You shoot that well, and then you can take advantage of the extra possessions that come from only turning the ball over on 10.7% of your possessions.  That's BG's best turnover rate, essentially all year.  The only better ones were non-D1 and LeMoyne.  BG was +3 at the line.

Defense was equally the key. BG held UT to 1.07 PPP, almost the same as the first game. UT had 47% EFG. That was 38% on 2FG and 42% on 3FG.  The 3FG is pretty good, but let's double-click on the 2FG.

That's the lowest 2FG% this year, if you eliminate Aquinas, Chicago, and VMI.  The next lowest in MAC play was 43%...the last time out.  Here's the deal...UT was 3 of 15 inside the restricted area. That's just amazing...BG had 6 blocks and numerous misdirections.

Coach said the zone is key.  Obviously, it should be hard to score close to the basket in a zone, but Glover is coming into his own in there.  (Remember, there's more to basketball than scoring). UT faced outright hostile harassment at the rim, and it was the most important factor in the win.

Javonte led BG with what Todd Walker called a "quiet 19."  He is very efficient...7 of 11 and 1 of 2 shooting, 2-2 at the line (one-and-one in the last minute), 4 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals over 2 turnovers.  He's just such a luxury. When you are killing clock, being able to have him dribble out the shot clock and then get to the rim every time for a high-quality shot or a kick-out is a walking dagger.

Sam Towns has been slumping as far as scoring goes, but he scored 16 points. That's 1-2 and 4-6 shooting. Also 2-2 at the line, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 stea,l and 1 TO.

Shackelford had 16. It wasn't the most efficient... he was 2-for-11 from 2FG but 3-for-5 from 3FG, with 7 rebounds and 2 assists.  As Coach Gallagher said in the post-game, Josiah shot 45% from 3FG in DII, and if they can get him ramped up, it's a huge addition. 

And Aidan Goins.  Fifty pounds lighter than when he arrived, he is a difference maker in the post.  He's super hard to guard in the post.  Almost impossible with one guy.  And when you double, the fun can start.  He ended up with 10 on 3 of 7 and 0 of 2, 5 of at the line, and 4 rebounds in 10 minutes.  He was also >40% from 3FG in JUCO.  It's interesting to see.

Glover had 5 points, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks and 1-2 at the line in 22 minutes.

Marquee week coming up.  It's Kent Tuesday and Miami Friday.  Played Kent tough in the opener...and what a dream it would be to wreck Miami's season, after all that has happened over the year...shutting those preppy frat boys up.

Hated Rockets. Part 2

So, after playing an instant classic at Savage earlier this year, BG and UT are now heading to game 2, the first time BG has played a team for the second time.

BG should have won the first game.  They shot the ball well, had a good game on the boards, and were slightly better at the line. Defense was solid. Unfortunately, BG turned the ball over twice as often...and at the worst time. 

With 4:42 to go, BG was up 7 with the ball. They turned the ball over four times in the last 4 minutes, had a shot that missed everything, created a huge shot clock violation, and then a UT player who had been elbowed in the eye by his own teammate canned a clutch jumper, and UT stole the game.

It was a heartbreaker...and BG lost the next 2 games after that.

MAC only stats.

As always, UT is a strong offensive team, #3 in the MAC.  BG is now #2 in defensive efficiency.  As noted, BG had the better of it in Savage, holding UT to 1.08 points per possession. They are very selective in shooting 3FGs, but are #2 when they do shoot.  They take excellent care of the ball, rebound well, and are #6 at getting to the line and #4 at making FTs.  They play solid offense across the board, and BG's defense is solid across the board.

And BG is #8 in offense, and UT is #8 in defense.  Their only weakness is on their defensive boards.  BG is the #5 shooting team in the MAC, and UT is #9 defending the shot.

Their leading scorer is the likely MAC FR of the Year, Leroy Blyden Jr. He scores 17.1 PPG at high efficiency, shooting 51%/40%/85%.  And one heartbreaking, one-eyed jumper.  He had 19 the first time around.

Sonny Wilson is scoring 16.9 PPG on 49%/38%/67% shooting.  He is #1 in the MAC in minutes and #2 in A/TO.  In general, his numbers are influenced by his high amount of PT.  BG held him to 7 points on 2 of 8 and 1 of 4 shooting.

Austin Parks scored 12.1 PPG on 65% 2FG shooting, #9 in the MAC. He is also #3 in blocked shots. He had 14 the first time.

And Sean Craig scores 11.6 PPG, shooting 56%/34%/73% and leads UT with 8 RPG. He had 13 in the first one and 7 rebounds.

BG had one-dimensional scoring in the first game, with Campbell getting 29 of the 72 points.  He was an absolute machine.

BG is a 1.5-point favorite

BG MBB blows past NIU. What happens next?

The MBB team got itself a win that it really needed last night in DeKalb, cruising past the Huskies 68-52 in a game that actually wasn't even that close.  The last MAC bus ride home from NIU was a pleasant one.

NIU led for :17.  The Falcons had an early 12-0 run to go up 12-2.  In the first 10 minutes, BG got stops on seven straight possessions two times.  And then capped the half off on a 13-2 run to lead 38-19.  In the second half, the lead never got closer than 14 and was as high as 25.

NIU is a bad team, but beating them this easily represented an effective outcome.  BG now needs to be more consistent and get a few of these in a row.

Defense was the difference.  BG held NIU to .75 points per possession, a winning number.  BG has not lost at that defensive level in the KenPom era (1997).  It was BG's 3rd-best D1 performance this year and best in MAC play.

Their EFG was 36%, best in BG's MAC play. That was 44% and 19%. They only got to the line 15 times...and BG did a great job on the defensive boards, holding them to 17%...they came in #3 in the MAC. NIU took decent care of the ball.

Remembering they are the worst offensive team in the MAC. But we did what you should do to a bad offensive team...made them even worse.

BG went the whole way in the MESH zone that seems to work for them.  Last year we did the same thing...went from throwing a zone out there once in a while to using it all or almost all the time.  It certainly had NIU flummoxed.

BG had only .98 points per possession, their worst winning number this year.  BG shot decently at 54.6%, making 58% (good) and 31% (not good) on a heavily 2FG shot mix. But, BG had 22% turnovers, their 3rd straight game over 20%. They were poor on the offensive boards and only took 11FTs, making 9.

Mayar Wol might be breaking out of a terrible shooting slump.  He led the team with 15 points on 3 of 5 and 3 of 4 shooting with 4 rebounds in 25 minutes off the bench.

Javonte Campbell had 13, shooting 5 of 8 and 1 of 2, 2-2 at the line, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and 3 turnovers.

Justin Thomas had 10...his first double-digit scoring D1 game since William and Mary. He shot 4 of 6 from 2FG, made 2-2 at the line, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals with no turnovers.  He has been injured and doesn't need to score to help the team.  He just has a stabilizing effect.  He was +24 in 27 minutes.

Troy Glover had 5 first-half blocks...he struggled to score but was +23 in 17 minutes.  Towns had 8 points and 9 rebounds. Goins had 8 points with 3 of 6 2FG shooting in 15 minutes, though it remains tough to watch.

So, the tests are coming up.  UT at home...a chance to right that wrong. Kent and @MU follow.  We have shown ourselves to be capable on competing against both...but it needs to happen.

Football Shuffles Coaching Staff

 Some shuffling on the football staff at BG, one of which was a pretty big surprise.

Brandon Fisher, BG's DC, has left for "other coaching opportunities," which, if they exist, have not been revealed yet.  That means that one year in, Coach George is no longer working with either of the coordinators he brought with him to BG.  I don't think that is very common for coaches who move up like that.  We know he fired Partridge and it just kind of sounds like he did the same to Fisher.

Fisher, of course, is the son of Jeff Fisher, a coach in Nashville, which is where George got introduced to coaching.  In fact, Fisher got George "ready to run through a wall" about coaching.

And, BG was #6 in the MAC in scoring defense, which isn't bad for a team that rebuilt its defense before that season.

Which makes it all a little odd, but perhaps we will hear something new.

The new DC was already on staff...Joe Bowden. He was our LB coach and has been with George since the beginning at T-State.  That includes coaching Gideon Lampron and Sanders Ellis, the incoming transfer LB.  (I'm assuming he will also coach LBs).  He played 9 years in the NFL and is pledging to play blue-collar FB.

Richard McNutt remains DB coach and will coordinate the pass game.

Alex Bayer left for Syracuse, so we needed a new special teams coach.  In the worst-kept secret of the off-season, BG has hired Greg Froelich, who has worked on special teams at Washington, Illinois, Charlotte (BIFF!), and Michigan.  He has never served as the special teams coordinator; he has worked as QC or as an analyst. He played FB at Michigan.

Other news is that Baron May has stayed with the program and is an offensive analyst.  He was a reserve QB, got pressed into action due to injuries, and seemed to be holding his own before a non-contract injury ended his career as soon as it started.

Former Falcon Levi Gazarek, who was formerly listed on the staff, is no longer listed.

NIU Preview for MBB

There's a long bus ride, and it's the last one for BG MBB to DeKalb--at least in MAC play.  Can you imagine driving out there for a non-conference game?

Or, maybe NIU will be back.  It's happened before.

NIU has not made the NCAA Tournament since 1996, and its last two appearances were out of other conferences.  They won an early MAC title in 1982 but have not won the MAC since.

In the 28 seasons since they returned to the MAC, they have had a winning season in MAC play three times. Their current coach is Rashon Burno, who is a Hurley guy. He's 39-85 in DeKalb.

This year, they are overachieving.  They were picked last by Blue Ribbon and the MAC pre-season poll.  They are tied for 9th and in the tournament hunt.  In the MAC, they beat CMU, WMU, and UMass, all at home.

The series with BG has been no contest.  The Falcons have won 9 out of 10, the last 3 overall and the last 5 in DeKalb.

MAC Games only.

The Huskies are interesting.  They are the number 2 team in the MAC in defensive efficiency.  They are #4 in defending the shot, #5 in forcing turnovers, and #5 in defensive rebounding.  They are #3 defending the 3FG and #8 defending the 2FG.  Their major weakness on defense is that they are #11 in allowing free throws.  

That's not great news for a Falcon team coming off one of the worst offensive games in recent memory. For the year, BG is #6 in the MAC in offensive efficiency, but they are also wildly inconsistent.  An average D completely flummoxed them in Jonesboro, and we are going to have to battle for a night-and-day recovery, or the last ride home from DeKalb could feel like forever.

NIU is good enough on defense to compete.  If only they could score.  They are last in the MAC in offensive efficiency. They score 0.98 points per possession, and the next-worst team is BSU at 1.02. 

They try the most 3FGs in the MAC.  They are last in making them.  They are #9 in 2FG.

They are #12 overall in shooting and #13 in turnovers.  That's a toxic combo.  It isn't all a disaster; they are #3 in offensive rebounds and #5 at getting to the line, though they make only 68%.

BG has been playing decent defense since the Buffalo debacle. But they were smoked on the defensive boards by A-State, which really makes it tough to get the speed game going.  BG is #2 on the defensive boards for the year and needs to get back to it. (A-State was really tall, and NIU is #314 in average height). 

BG has fallen to #7 in forcing turnovers, so they might not take as much advantage there as they'd like. 

Their leading scorer is Makhai Valentine with 14.6, shooting 48% and 35%.  He makes 83% from the line, #5 in the MAC. He's 6'3" from Missouri State.

Dylan Ducommun is their 2nd leading scorer.  He's a FR from Switzerland, and he's 6'4."  Scoring 13.3 PPG, making a rough 43% and 32%.

Taj Walters is the 3rd leading scorer at 11.6 PPG.  He's a 6'5" FR from the Bronx. He's highly efficient at 56% and 42% shooting and is #15 in the MAC in EFG. He also leads the team with 7.2 RPG. 

Gianni Cobb leads the team with 3.8 APG. 

They run a very tight 7-man rotation. They play most FR and SO, and they are the 15th youngest team in D1 ball.  In the old days, you'd think they might be on the upswing, but most of those guys won't play in a MWC game, if history is a guide.

BG needs a win here.  They are 4.5-point favorites.  We will see if they are ready to rebound or ready to pack it in.

Falcons Embarrassed in Jonesboro

Well, it was just bad news in Jonesboro yesterday.  I know it doesn't count toward the MAC standings, but it was tough to watch and should never have happened.  Just as it has for the Simon era, this team fails to produce competitive performances on a consistent basis, and that's going to make it tough to reach our goals. You need three in a row against top competition to win the MAC.

Yesterday was 100% non-competitive.  And not against a high-quality Sun Belt team, but a team that is 6-6 in their league.  We were 2.5-point dogs... not 37.

They play a multi-zone defense that can be dodgy.  But the metrics show that others have figured it out.  And Coach Simon, in the pre-game with Todd Walker, described what BG had to do to win.  And his team executed none of it.

He put it on missing shots, which certainly was a problem.  It was our worst shooting game in 10 years. But we were frozen like deer in headlights in front of their zones.  We had at least 3 shot-clock violations, a couple of which occurred without a shot even being taken.  We turned the ball over on 22% of our possessions against a team that gets after the ball.

So we knew it was coming. We had prepared a plan.  And then did nothing.  It's on everyone in the program.

The result was our worst defeat since the UT game at the end of 22.  We lost by 40.

There's no reason to delve deeper into this one.  This team has some ability and is relatively healthy. This would be the time to go after it.  But it is not happening.  Maybe all will resolve itself, but we have felt that way before. What you see out there is occasionally good enough.

It has begun to look familiar.  You know, maybe we are just one click away.  It's tough to see that out of yesterday's game.

Seven games left, and 4 at home. Except for Miami, there's not one team on there that we have not proven ourselves capable of beating or losing to. We are 5-6.  Four wins probably gets it done. So, you beat NIU and WMU...you are left with Kent, UT and UMass at home, EMU and Miami on the road.

Are there four wins in there.  My guess is yes, but it leaves us a 7 or 8 seed and one-and-done in Cleveland, with a team that had the ability to be better.  And then we can start over again.

I believe in the short term, we will play a little better.  But I have yet to see us not throw away success.

Sun Belt Part 2

 So it's the second round of the Sun Belt challenge, this time with the MAC on the road.  The impression I have is that the MAC Coaches don't really care for this arrangement.  A couple of them have said so.  One of them (I forget who) quaintly said that "the coaches wanted to make it once a year, but we were "out-voted."  Which is cute, thinking they had a vote.

If you look back at Falcon schedules, we used to regularly play non-conference games during the MAC season.  BG's legendary game with Houston at Anderson was in the MAC season.  The MAC was smaller than.  I like the Sun Belt challenge because it gives us decent D1 opponents, and my fear is that if MAC teams didn't have those games, they would be replaced by NAIA teams.  You could put the second game in December...anyway.

The MAC is going to go to a 22-game schedule relatively soon, with a full round-robin. I'd still keep the Sun Belt challenge, but maybe that's the excuse to drop it to one.

Anyway.  the MAC is the #15 conference and the Sun Belt is #20. The first round--all at MAC Schools--found the MAC going 9-4.  The Challenge was a draw last year and the Sun Belt won the first year.

Teams are paired with a comparable opponent, in theory, to help bracket chances.  Usually, that's a joke. Miami could, in fact, use a nice win, but they got paired with #165 Marshall.

BG is playing Arkansas State.  BG actually played game #2 of the Simon era and beat them at the Stroh. This is our sixth meeting with the Red Wolves, and BG leads the series 3-2, starting with a win in 1950. 

When BG played them two years ago, they had a new coach: Byron Hodgson, who had paced the MAC and SEC sidelines with Nate Oats.  After he left for South Florida, he was replaced by Ryan Pannone, who had also replaced him at Bama.

Roll Tide.

Ark State was picked #1 in Blue Ribbon and #2 in the conference poll.  They are not having that kind of year...14-10/12-10/6-6 and have lost 5 of their last 7.  They were healthy during that seven-game run, but have clearly been struggling to find their feet this year.  They've used 10 starting line-ups...the one they used last time out was #10.

They have beaten Texas State twice...that's the team BG beat in the SB-Challenge opener. (Texas State is 14-11/7-6).

One of the reasons was they picked an Oats-guy to replace an Oats-guy was that they didn't need to change styles...though not sure how much that mattered, since every single player left the program.

So, the Oats style is fast.  Ark State plays at 72 possessions, which is 19th in the country. Their adjusted offense is 1.1 and their defense is 1.11.  D1 average is 1.09.

Offensively, they shoot 44% from 3FG, which is a lot.  Sadly for them, they are bad at it, making 32% when the D1 average is almost 34%. They do make 52% from 2FG, which is a little above average.

They combine sub-par shooting with turning the ball over 20% of the time, which is #341 in the country.  They crash the boards, getting 37% of offensive rebounds, #23in the country. They are respectable at getting to the line and make 76%, which is pretty good.

On defense, they excel on the defensive boards, at 27% and #40 in the nation. They are #208 in shooting defense.  They defend the 3FG well, but are well below average on the 2FG. They are #293 in forcing turnovers and #253 in allowing FTs.

It looks to me like the key for BG starts with forcing those turnovers and being strong on the defensive boards.  If Ark State crashes and we are able to clear the boards, we should be able to get into transition with numbers.

Matt Hayman is their leading scorer. He's a transfer from Stephen F. Austin. He's a 6'5" G.  He scores 12.3 PPG in 22 minutes. He takes 31% of their shots, which is a lot, and shoots 51% and 31% on roughly even distribution. He makes 93% of his FTs.  I want Todd Walker to say he "has only missed 2 FTs all year" every time he goes to the line. He draws only 2.7 fouls per game.

Christian Harmon, a 6'5" G, a JUCO transfer.  He scores 11.8 in 27 minutes, shooting 56% and 33%, mostly on 3FGs. 

Joey Chammaa is a 5'11" G and a transfer from SD.  He missed two months in the middle of the year to injury and comes off the bench. He scores 10.3 PPG in 17 minutes.  He shoots 59% and 34%.

Chandler Jackson scores 10 PPG on 53% and 27% shooting. He also has 4.3 APG.

Their leading rebounder is Jalen Hampton, with 8.3 RPG, a 6'7" Missouri State transfer. They have a 6'10 "guy and a 7'0" who play 15 minutes per game.

Last two things. They are the #42 team in the country in height, and BG is #64. And they play a deep bench... they have 10 available players who average 14 minutes or more.

I get it.  Game doesn't mean anything.  I hope we come and try to stay sharp and get ready for the final run in MAC play.  Or...play our last terrible game of the season.

Football Finalizes HS Recruits

Wednesday was the second NSD for football.  There were four players announced, four more who self-announced (meaning, I assume, they are PWOs) and a position change.  Let's get rolling.  (h/t to @thetalontribune for tracking all this).

The four players were:

Darian Hawkins is a 3-star DL from California. He's a 6'4" LB.  He's a 3-star recruit on 247 and was apparently determined to play for a Falcon team, because his offers were Air Force and Bowling Green. He was honorable mention all-state and All-Mission League First Team and All-Area First Team (2025). 

Marceles Carey certainly has people excited.  He's 5'11" and 165 lbs and plays WR/RB.  If he reminds you of Ta'Ron Keith, a true clutch Falcon gamebreaker, then join the crowd.  He's also from the same hometown as Keith: DeLand, Fl.  He was the Orlando Sentinel Offensive Player of the Year. He had only one other D1 offer and a handful of FCS offers.  Which is fine...certainly appears to be a ballplayer.

• Rushed for 2,313 career yards and 34 touchdowns during career
• Caught 74 career passes for 1,456 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns during career
• As a senior he rushed for 1,479 yards (13.1 ypa) and 21 touchdowns, while also catching 27 passes for 693 yards and seven more scores
• Had 31 total touchdowns as a senior (21 rushing, 7 receiving, 2 INT returns, 1 PR)
• Also notched six interceptions on defense, returning two for scores and posting 40 tackles

Trent Merrell is a DL, 6'3" and 230 pounds. He's from Elyria and BG is his only D1 offer, though he had 3 reported FCS offers.  He was not ranked on 247.

He was, however, a highly recognized and productive HS player.

• Finished his career as a three-time First Team All-Conference, All-District and All-County selection (2024–26)
• Earned Third Team All-Ohio honors in 2024 and 2025, followed by Second Team All-Ohio recognition in 2026
• Helped Elyria Catholic reach the regional final in 2023
• Recorded 62 tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks during the 2025 season
• Posted 53 tackles, 25.5 tackles for loss, five sacks, two forced fumbles and two blocked field goals in 2026

Cameron Simmons is 6'3" and 245 and from Sugar Hill, GA. He's a highly recruited, 3-star player.  He had offers from Wake Forest, App State, Georgia State, Arkansas State, Southern Miss and Troy. His Father is 15-year NFL veteran and BG Assistant Clyde Simmons. Posted 81 tackles, 9.0 TFLs and 5.0 sacks as a senior in 2025 as Buford won MaxPreps National Championship.  He also helped lead Buford to the 6A state title, and all-region honors.

The FR class (get to the PWOs in a second) has 25 players.  247 ranks it as the best class in the MAC. CMU was second--and had 38 commits.

It reflects a philosophy of HS first recruiting that Eddie has talked about, as well as the dude from UT and we can see it in CMU.  I'm still not sure how that works, but I'm guessing those guys know what they are doing.

According to rankings, which we don't believe and yet we talk about them all the time, TE Kentrell White is the most highly ranked player we ever recruited.  OT Travis Robertson was #3, QB Jarin Mock is #4  and TE Maddox Hunsted is #7.  (Full bios, etc, available here).

So, after a disappointing season, we were excited to see what Eddie could do with a full season to recruit.  We are seeing it.  Obviously, it will need to translate to wins.

By position:

QB:  1

RB: 2

OL: 3

WR: 3

TE: 4 (Ay yi yi.  Honestly though, the new trend seems to be 13-personnel. And QB Carson Melvin moved from QB to TE).

Offensive total: 13

DL: 6

LB: 3

DB: 3

Defensive total:  12

So, a few other players who committed but were not in BG's announcement.

Carson Lovett is an ATH from Cass Tech, Detroit's D1 football factory.  (Alma mater to Diana Ross and John DeLorean).  He's where stars are funky.  No stars, but offers from Marshall, Louisville, Akron, CMU, Charlotte, Kent, Miami and UMass in FBS. He's listed at 6'1" and 205 pounds.  I don't see any other numbers or stats, except that he was an integral part of Cass Tech's state runner-up team.

Caleb Moyer is a QB from Wapakoneta and is one of those really interesting players.  He was an absolute stud in HS. He was Ohio NW District Offensive POY and first-team All-Ohio.  Coach's kid. And a winner:  they won 44 games in his time at Wapak. And yet, Bowling Green was his only offer. He's 6'2" so size shouldn't be the issue. He's from DIII, which is out of 7 (or VII) total), so not that small a school.  None of that will matter come August.  We've had guys like this shine before.

John Kolarchik is an OL from Orchard Lake St. Mary's. He's 6'6" and 318 pounds. He had offers from Wayne State, and a handful of other smaller schools.  He did get a PWO offer from OU.  That HS is a DII power in Michigan, and they won two state titles while Kolarchik was there. 

Lastly is Dylan Dreasky.  He's really interesting.  A 3-star ranked recruit, he received only one offer.  He is from Linden, MI and lists himself as a QB, WR, S.  Which makes you wonder if he's going to be moved to another position at some point.  He's described online as an explosive playmaker.  Will be fun to watch him.

So there you have it.  Coming up soon, I will look at how we look in the various position groups, with a special focus on the OL, which at this point is dancing with the ones already in the room (for the most part).

As always, you can dig in yourself here.  

Falcon MBB Coast to Easy Win

That's what that is supposed to look like.

BG took on Ball State, a team in the MAC that they should beat, especially at home.  BG never trailed, dominated on both ends of the floor, and rolled to a 25-point victory that was the biggest of the Simon Era.

BG led by 10 for the last 23 minutes.  It was never closer than 13 in the second half.

It was a win BG badly needed.  At 5-6 in MAC play, they need to stack some wins together.  Sadly, having lost opportunities against UB and CMU, the road will be a little rougher.  They have @NIU next after the Sun Belt, and have Toledo, Kent, Miami, UMass on the schedule, along with WMU and EMU.  The good news is that they play 4 of the 6 at home.

Again, qualifying for the tournament is the minimum.  You'd like to get to #6 to avoid MU or UA in the first round...although with Miami, we would have the chance to right a quarter-century-old wrong.

BG scored 1.23 points per possession, their 4th-best D1 game of the year.  They allowed .83 points per possession, their fifth-best D1 game of the season.  That's what we're talking about...that team has showed itself from time to time this year...but needs to stack games like this together.

Coach said they played the "web" zone defense for the whole game — that's a D they created out of necessity last year due to injuries and the need to hide Marcus Johnson.

It was BG's best shooting game of the year (D1), but FWIW, better than they shot against Bethany and Siena Heights. That's 60% on 2FG and 50% on 3FG. Meanwhile, BSU shot 43% on 53% and 19%.  BG destroyed BSU on the boards, and free throw attempts were almost the same, but BG was +6 when making 14 of 15.  Coach Simon rolled his eyes when he talked about how many FTs they have shot in practice.

Ball State actually won the turnover battle.

BG also had much more balanced scoring.  It was nice to have everyone working on it, rather than Campbell being forced to shoot every time. 

In fact, Josiah Shackelford led the scoring with 21 on 4 of 8 and 3 of 5 shooting.  He made 4-4 at the line and had 6 rebounds.  He was back starting, as well as Thomas, with Glover and Ruffin coming off the bench.  

BG actually started a small lineup with no center, though Goins and Glover played 15 minutes each.

Speaking of Goins, he had his best game in BG.  He absolutely abused Mason Jones in the post, scoring 10 points on 5 of 7 shooting, adding 5 rebounds.  Coach said Goins has completely transformed his body since he came to BG.  Also, he's got a 3FG game.  Would be huge to see him contribute.

Wol had 14.  He had been slumping, but went 1-2 and 4-7 in this one.

Campbell had 12 but was highly efficient, making 2-3 from 2FG and his only 3FG and all 5 FTs, to go with 6 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals but 5 turnovers.

Glover had 7 rebounds in 15 minutes.

One other thing...he didn't score, but Thomas seems to just solidify things for us.  He's coming off an injury.  He was +23.

So, one we go.  Now the mid-season Sun Belt game, which apparently no one wants to play....followed by the long ride to DeKalb.  Consistency is what we need. Let's have a good ride home.

Ball State MBB Preview

It's a cold winter, and a cold month or so for the men's basketball team, which has lost three in a row and 5 out of the last 7.  BG and UB are tied for the last playoff spot, with Ball State a half-game behind.

It's not looking great right now.

At one point, Ball State was a MAC basketball power.  From 1981 to 2000, they appeared in the NCAA Tournament seven times in 19 years.  That includes a Sweet 16 appearance.  It was a regular thing, and they had the best fan base in the MAC.  Since then, not so much.  They have not played in the MAC title game since 2000.

Michael Lewis is their current coach and is in his fourth year.  He has losing records the last 2 seasons and this year they are 7-14/5-14/3-6.  They started with a KenPom of 256, and now it is 309.

They were picked 8th in the MAC and 11th in Blue Ribbon. They lost their first 5 MAC games this year, then rallied to beat OU, CMU, and NIU, before losing to UT last time out to snap the streak.

Ball State has won 6 of the last 10 over BG, though the Falcons are 3-1 in the last 4 and the last 2 at the Stroh.

BG is a 12.5-point favorite. Dang.

They have had at least 3 players miss significant time.

This sets up very much like the CMU game.  (All Stats MAC ONLY). BSU is #10 on offense and #11 on defense.  On defense, they are last in allowing the shot, last in defending the 3FG, and 10th in defending the 2FG.  There's no reason BG shouldn't make shots against this team...

There are obstacles.  Beyond that, BSU is solid... they lead the MAC in forcing turnovers and are #3 in keeping teams off the line and #7 in defensive boards. (BG was getting to the line a lot earlier in the year, but in their last four losses, they have been under 25%.  The D1 average is 35%.)  Last FT trivia...BSU earns the bad luck award...they are last in FT% against, at 81%.

If BG is ready to defend again, they should be able to handle the Cards.  They are last in EFG...and last in making 2FGs and 8th in 3FGs.  They take an average number of 3FGs.  They are also last in offensive rebounding, so if there are misses, you hope there are chances to run.  The fewer half-court possessions BG has, the better. BSU is #1 at taking care of the ball, #7 at getting to the line, and #4 at FT shooting.

 They are led by Armoni Zeigler, who transferred from St. Peter's. He is scoring 17.2 PPG.  He's not efficient...making 46% on 2FG and 32% on 3FG.  He does make 84% at the line (#8), and he draws 5 fouls a game. He also leads the team with 5.4 RPG and has 30 turnovers, which, given the amount of time he has the ball, isn't as much as it seems.

Davion Hill is scoring 14.1 PPG. He transferred from NW Florida State College. (Also Trey Diggs). He's 6'2" and makes 58% from 2FG and 37% from 3FG. He takes excellent care of the ball.

They are not a big team...#328 in average height.  They play 8 players for 10 minutes or more, though with some injuries. They had a full lineup at UT, except for Joey Hart, who has not played since 12/20.

No regroup in Mt. Pleasant

 We were hoping to see a re-group yesterday in Mt. Pleasant.  Instead, we settled into 7th place.

BG did seem to play better defense, but they played the flattest and most listless game in years. And they dropped a game that you need to win to compete in this conference.  It's no mystery that yesterday's performance was not competitive.

After a rough start, BG led by 14 with 5 minutes left to play.  We led by 12 at the half and still led by 8 with 4 minutes gone in the first half.  At that point, CMU went on a 15-2 run and took the lead with 9 minutes left to play.  BG was up 5 with 6 minutes to play--on their 2nd 3FG of the game. CMU took the lead back with 4 minutes to play and the game was tied with 1:50 left and BG's ball.

BG missed a 3FG, and CMU turned the ball over.  Still tied, :58 to play.  BG is fouled.  Unfortunately, it's Glover, and he missed both of the FTs.  (Hard to have him out there late in games). BUT WAIT!  BG gets the rebound...and Campbell missed 2 FG.

Then the key sequence happened.  First, Adley got into the paint and hit a 2FG with :33 left, then Towns turned it over with :23 left, and Phat Phat made a 2FG, and CMU was up 4, and the die was cast.  BG hit a 3FG to make it one and had a 3FG to win, but it didn't go down.

BG was simply miserable shooting.  BG scored .84 points per possession, their worst offensive game of the season by a significant amount.  Our last games that were worst were in Simon's first year. BG's EFG was 39%...their previous lowest this year was 45%. We shot 39% from 2FG--worst this year--and 25% from 3FG, sadly only our 7th worst.

Turnovers and offensive rebounds were pretty even and made-FT's were even as well.  CMU didn't shoot a lot better--they only made 19% from 3FG, but they made 52% on 2FG and that was the difference.

It was an ugly, hard-to-watch performance by the Falcons.

Javonte Campbell continues to carry this team.  During a lot of possessions, he appeared to be the only Falcon moving his feet.

He scored 21, but they made him work for it.  He was 8 of 20 on 2FG, 5 of 7 at the line, 4 assists, 4 steals, and 2 TO.

Josiah Shackleford had 17, but 4 of 10 and 3 of 5 from 3FG.  He made 3 of BG's 4 3FGs, with Aidan Goins making the other.  Glover is efficient with 4 of 8 on 2FG and 6 rebounds.  Basically, I don't like to call guys out. If you played on our team and I didn't mention your name, we aren't getting anything out of you on offense.

Nathan Claerbaut was a real difference.  He blocked shots, altered shots, and has a really soft touch in the rim.  Look for him to move up next year.

So Ball State is next.  BG is a half-game ahead of Ball State to be out of the playoff mix.  BG has lost 3 straight and 5 of 7.  Last year, we had injuries...we are mostly healthy this year.  It's off track right now.