Big Early Season Game tomorrow (MBB)

 A big game is coming to the Stroh tomorrow.  I hope we see a decent crowd, given the difficult time of year.  Regardless, this one will be very interesting.

BG comes in playing as well as it has in a few years.  They are 7-3 with a P4 road win under its belt--the top-ranked win in the MAC this year.  

On the other side of the floor will be the Miami Redhawks, who are literally undefeated.  They come in at 10-0...both teams have 3 non-D1 wins.

The catch?  They have played the #363 schedule in the nation, out of 365, and that doesn't even count the non-D1 games.

They started the year with a KenPom of 127 and moved to 112 while going undefeated.  BG started at 193 and moved to 108...with a better KenPom than Miami.

They were expected to be good.  They were #2 in the MAC pre-season poll and in Blue Ribbon.  We just haven't had a real test to see how good they actually are.

This is the 154th time we have played Miami. They have dominated the series, winning 7 of the last 10.  They also won the last game at the Stroh and won last year at Millett.

I don't see a line yet.  KenPom gives BG a 63% chance to win. ESPN has it at 52%. (Probably more likely).

One reason this will be interesting is that you have a top-flight offensive team playing against a top-flight defensive team.  Miami can score....even adjusted for schedule, they are #87 in offensive efficiency at 1.14 points per possession.  They are average on defense at 1.09...but that kind of spread will get you wins.

They are the #9 shooting team in the country.  They take 44% from 3FG, and make 40%, #7 overall.  They are #33 on 2FG (59%) and #26 at the line (77%).  They only turn the ball over on 15% of their possessions, which is #50.  If you combine those two factors that effectively, you're going to be tough to beat.  They don't crash the boards at all.  

By contrast, BG is #58 defending the shot, #20 defending the 3FG, and #11 at forcing turnovers.  Seems like good-on-good.  One worry is fouls...BG is #316 in allowing FTs, and Miami can really hurt them if they are at the line all day.

BG is just slightly above average on offense, and no particular area stands out.  Miami is very good on the defensive boards.  The key will be keeping Miami within reach, and then the Falcons need to convert on their end, hopefully with some live-ball turnovers.

Another key factor...Evan Isparo, their 2nd-leading scorer, injured his knee in the Ball State game and is out for the season.  This is their first D1 game without him.

Their leading scorer is Brant Byers, with 14.5 PPG on 57% and 42% shooting.  Very efficient. Add 4.5 RPG. 

Almar Atlason scores 13.5 PPG on 72% and 46% shooting. (He's from Iceland by way of Bradley).  At 6'8", he's a tough match-up. 

Peter Suder, the pre-season MAC POY, is scoring 12.3 PPG on 64% and 50% shooting. 

Two things to remember.  Yes, those numbers came against weaker opponents and with far fewer minutes per player.  Against Ball State, they went with a much tighter 7-man rotation.  Atlason had 26.

It will be an interesting test for both sides.  High-quality December basketball.