Moment of Truth Preview

What is their body of work?

So NIU has been one of the dominant programs in the MAC.   They had a dominant period in the 10's, landing in the Orange Bowl and playing BG in 3 straight MAC Championship games, winning once.  They were also ranked when they played at BG for Gameday.

They are #2 in the MAC in wins since 2010. They lead the MAC in Championship game appearances and titles since 1997.

They went 0-for-COVID like BG did, had a good year the next year and fell back to earth the year after that.  They were 7-6/5-3 last year, as BG was.  

This season, they were picked in a tie for third with....Bowling Green.

They put themselves on immortal ground by winning at Notre Dame...following which they lost to UB and NC State and entered the 4th Quarter tied with UMass.

They host UT next week.

They were 12-point favorites over UB, FWIW.

BG is a 3-point favorite.  The Falcons have never lost to a G5 team that beat ND in the same season.

How experienced are they?

They have 33 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is experienced.

Who are their national leaders?

Cade Haberman has blocked 2 kicks, to lead the country.

Naveah Sanders is #14 in sacks.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -5, which is rough.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Ethan Hampton is good.  His efficiency is #4 in the MAC.  He completes 58%, has 8 TD over 4 INT and 13 yards a completion, which is really good.  NIU's traditional attack has been strong running, mobile QB and go over the top.  PFF ranks him as the top running QB in the MAC as well.  Bazelak is #5 in the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They score 28 per game, which is #73 in the nation.  They average 5.98 yards per play, which is 52nd. BG's defense allows 25 points per game, which is 82nd.  The Falcons allow 6.09 yards per play, which is 89th.

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  Their per game totals are #10 in the nation.  On a per rush average, they are 39th at 5.11 yards per carry.  Their top back, Antario Brown, was injured as UMass and his status will be known at gametime, but they have depth at RB and ran effectively after he left the game last week. BG allows 5.28 per rush.

Do they pass the ball?

As seen above, they are effective.  BG is #93 in pass defense efficiency, allowing almost exactly what NIU is getting.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 60% of their plays sack-adjusted.  That's a lot.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Yes, at 51% which is #14 in the country.  Run-first teams tend to be really strong on 3rd down.  BG allows 33% which is #28 in the nation.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5.3 points per trip, which is very good.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed.

Do they protect the QB?

They do.  They allow sacks on 3.7% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 10% of passing attempts.

A couple other notes.  They keep the ball.  They are #10 in TOP.  They are 5 of 7 on 4th down.  Those 3rd down plays are going to be critical.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They allow 19 a game, which is #1 in the MAC.  They allow 4.64 yard per play, which is 18th.  The gap is due to turnover differential, I would suspect.  BG scored 28.4 which is #72 and 6.2 yards per play which is #67.

Do they defend the run effectively?

They allow 3.04 yards per carry, which is #18. At 4.8 yards per carry, BG's offense is #62.

Can they be passed on?

They are #46 in team passing efficiency defense. BG is #67 in team passing offense.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They surely do.  They are #2 in the country at 23% allowed. At 46%, BG is #34.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are very good.  4.3 points per trip--only allowed ten all year.  BG offense scored 4.9 per trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they get sacks on 9.2% of pass attempts.  BG allows sacks on only 4.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

At 35 a punt, they are #125.  No blocks, no TDs.  Hampton has pooched three times.

Punt Return?

Six returns, long of 10.

Placekicking? 

He's 6 of 9.  Blocked twice.  Long of 50.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 27, which is not good.

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27, which is good.

Intangible Miscellany

My expectation is that the team that likes to play in big games will show up.  We are hoping for a good crowd.  BG is going to need to play at a high level.  BG has to keep the game close so they don't get one-dimensional.  And the Falcons need to re-discover the ability to run the ball.  NIU is certainly not unbeatable, as time has shown.  A win here is huge.  A loss puts us way behind the 8 ball.