The Hated Rockets MBB Preview

And here come the Rockets.

You have to give Tod Kowalczyk credit.  He has built an outstanding program at UT. They have won the MAC regular season title the last three years.  They lost their top 3 scorers, including the MAC POY, and they are still 6-1 in MAC play and in the hunt. Overall they are 12-7 with a kenpom of 142, which would be their worst since the end of the 2020 season.  But they are in the hunt. They are haunted by a long non-NCAA streak--1980 in their case--but this program is as healthy today as it has ever been.

They have also won 7 out of the last 10 against BG and the last 4.  BG's last win at Savage was in 2021.

UT plays at 68 possessions a game and BG at 70, which is #2 in the MAC.  When you play UT, you play a well-rounded team.  They are #2 in offense and #3 in defense, while BG is #4 in offense and #8 in defense. BG is actually only +6 points in MAC play, unusual for a 5-2 team.  

UT shoots the fewest 3FGs in the MAC. They make 36%, so they are selective. They made 52% on their 2FGs, which is #7.  Overall, they are 7th in shooting.  They take excellent care of the ball, are #6 on the boards and get to the line the 2nd most in the MAC.  BG gets to the line the most, which is an indication of a key point of this game.  The difference is that UT also allows the fewest FTs in the MAC, whereas BG is 3rd.

In 7 MAC games, UT has been called for 101 fouls, the opponents 139.  BG has been 124 and their opponents 163.  UT has a 127-61 FT advantage.  BG's is 138-91.

On defense, UT is about average against the shot.  They are good against the 3FG, but vulnerable against the 2FG, which might open the door for BG.  They do force some turnovers and are OK but not great on the defensive boards, another opportunity for BG.  And, as already discussed, they do not give up FTs whereas BG has relied on making them.  They are #19 in the country in keeping opponents off the line.

Their leading scorer is Ra-Heim Moss, at 18 PPG on 52% 2FG shooting (decent) and 28% 3FG shooting (not good). He also averages 5 rebounds, is 3rd in the MAC in steals and makes 78% at the line.  He has 19 turnovers. 

Dante Maddox is the 2nd leading Rocket scorer. He scores 16 PPG.  He led the MAC last year in and has the same percentage this year, but is #9.  He shoots 41% and 46%. Also 5.4 rpg and 19 assists over 10 turnovers.

Tyler Cochran, a Ball State transfer, scores 14 a game on 57% and 33% shooting, and leads the team with 7.1 rpg, despite being 6'2".

Javan Simmons is scoring 12 PPG. He red-shirted last year and is scoring 12 a game on 58% 2FG shooting. He has committed 28 of UT's 101 fouls.

UT is not tall....they are #325 in the nation in average height.  They have won their last 12 home games in conference.  

So this is a big one.  First rivalry game for the new regime.  I like where we are.  We seem more adaptable and to have specific game plans for different teams.  BG is a heavy underdog on paper.  But we are tough and I'm betting its a dogfight.