St. Thomas Preview

Next up for BG MBB, after a week off, is the St. Thomas Tommies, a team usually playing BG in hockey, but now playing them in D1 basketball.

This is an amazing story.  They were a dominant program in many sports in the MIAC and DIII.  In fact, they were so good that they were expelled from the conference.  (They won a football game 97-0). 

Really.  

If St. Thomas had stayed, they would have dissolved the conference.  Sheesh.  They couldn't find another conference that would accept them in DIII, so they came to the NCAA and asked for a quick route to DI--which normally required passing through DII first.

In MBB, they made 19 DII tournaments and won it twice. 

Moving to D1, they joined the Summit League.  They struggled their first year, were 19-14 the next year and 20-13 last year.  They are not eligible for post-season play until 26-27. (They are supposed to start playing NCHC that year as well).

The Summit is the 20th-ranked conference right now, the MAC is #22.  Blue Ribbon picked them 6th and their own media had them #4.  KC, who beat BG last Saturday, was picked to win the Summit.  They are 9-4 this year, and 6-4 in D1 games. Their kenpom has moved from 202 to 140, mostly through double-digit road wins over Green Bay (#328) and Northern Colorado (#166) and a neutral floor 26-point win over Portland State (254).

They losses are @Oklahoma State (101), @Az State (#61), Wofford (#146, neutral floor) and @Milwaukee (134).

They have never played BG.  They beat WMU two games ago (77-71 in St. Paul) and last year 66-51 in Kzoo.

They are a scoring machine. They go at 68 possessions, which is average.  But they score 1.12 points per possession, which is #88 in the nation. It's mostly shooting. They try 46% of their FGs from 3FG, which is #54 in the country.  They are also good at it, making 39% (#24).  They also make 57% on 2FGs (#57).  They are better than average on turnovers.  Like many teams who play the 3FG game, they are not committed to the offensive boards and don't shoot a lot of FTs, though they make 77% when they get there, which is #37.  

Defensively they allow 1.1 points per possession, which is #235 in the country. That's mostly on 2FG where they allow 54% (#225.) They are good against the 3FG and do force turnovers above the average. They are poor on the offensive boards (#259) and allow FTs (#238).

Those numbers are all D1 only.  Individuals are for all games.

Miles Barnstable leads them in scoring at 12.8 per game. He shoots mostly 3FGs and makes 29.9%, with 57% from 2FG.  Also makes 88% at the line.  He is a transfer from UW-Whitewater.

Kendall Blue is scoring 11.4 PPG. He makes 54% from 2FG and 45% from 3FG, which is really good. He also leads the team with 4.2 RPG.

Drake Dobbs scores 10.2 PPG on 62% and 46% shooting and 89% from the line. He also leads the team with 3.5 assists per game.

They are #69 in bench minutes but they are 305 in effective height. 

There's no line yet.  The Tommies have a 55% chance to win on ESPN and kenpom makes it 65%.  A key issue is who suits up for BG.  It's the last D1 game of the pre-season....BG plays Aquinas on Monday for what should be a guaranteed win.  I doubt anyone gets pushed back.

Harold Fannin Jr. Makes HIstory

As fans, we had the privilege of watching something special this year.  I've been waiting to do this post until all the results were in, but it's time.  Harold Fannin is the most honored player in the history of our program, and we have a great tradition.  We have had other players on a consensus All-American team....but he's the first consensus All-American in school history for football.

As he moves on to NFL (one assumes), I want to thank him for being a Falcon and for being (by all accounts) a good teammate and embodying what it means to be a Falcon.  The national recognition is deserved, and we know that when you are from a small school, you have to really earn it to get by the P4 gatekeepers.

He has made history with this program and he will not be forgotten.

A Remarkable Season by the Numbers

It was truly a season for the ages:

• 1,342 receiving yards, second in the nation and just 11 yards shy of breaking the FBS single-season record for tight ends.
• 100 receptions, placing him third all-time for a single season by a tight end.
• 9 touchdowns, leading all tight ends nationally.
• 31 broken tackles, setting a Pro Football Focus (PFF) record for tight ends across its 11 years of grading.
• A PFF overall grade of 95.9, the highest of any college football player in the nation this year.

Fannin’s performance was not only statistically dominant but also game-changing. His 137-yard receiving performance against Penn State, a defense that hadn’t allowed a single player over 100 receiving yards all season, is emblematic of his ability to rise to the occasion. Similarly, his 145 receiving yards against Texas A&M represented the most any player achieved against the Aggies this season.

A Trailblazer for Bowling Green

Fannin’s Consensus All-American honor places him in elite company—not just nationally but within Bowling Green’s history. The only other BGSU athlete to earn consensus All-American status was men’s basketball star Wyndol Gray in 1945. Gray, a fellow Northeast Ohio native, helped lead the Falcons to the NIT final before playing professionally for the Boston Celtics.

As BGSU fans, we’ve watched Harold Fannin Jr. grow from an under-recruited high school athlete to one of the most dominant players in college football. Fannin has elevated the program’s profile and shown potential recruits what can be accomplished at Bowling Green and with this staff. In a larger sense, universities exist to develop people into their best selves, and Harold Fannin did what he did HERE.  It matters.

A Season of Awards and Accolades

Fannin’s accolades go far beyond his Consensus All-American recognition. This season, he was:

• The MAC Offensive Player of the Year and winner of the Vern Smith Leadership Award, making him the first tight end in FBS history to win a conference’s overall Player of the Year award.
• A finalist for the John Mackey Award, given to the nation’s top tight end.  (I saw somewhere that it is far from uncommon for the dopes who give the award to be out of step with the broad consensus of the All-American teams.
• The only tight end to be a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award, typically reserved for wide receivers.

Fannin leaves an indelible mark on college football and sets his sights on what’s next. Whether it’s breaking the FBS receiving record for tight ends or showcasing his talents at the next level, there’s no doubt that he's just getting started.

As BGSU fans, we honor his contributions to the program and eagerly await what the future holds for him.

Harold, thank you for making history and for showing the world what it means to be a Falcon!

MBB Loses in KC

The MAC has had a rough pre-season in MBB.  Virtually no highlights.  And consistent disappointment.  Including for BG, which is battling serious injury issues and lost last night at #276 Kansas City by 8 points.  BG is 4-6, 3-6 in D1 games against the nation's #328 schedule.  (All kenpom).  The Falcons are currently ranked #275 on kenpom.

I'm not disillusioned.  I still like our coaches and their ability to get players.  But this year is not off to a promising start.

BG's next game is against a good St. Thomas team.  We are used to seeing them on the ice, but they are #137 in MBB which would rank them third in the MAC.

While BG stayed in touch for about 30 minutes--KC's largest lead was 14--the Roos led for 35 minutes.  A lack of depth might have been an issue...

The game started very even, with a one-possession lead in place both ways for the first 8 minutes. It was 16-16 when KC went on a 14-4 run to get a 10-point lead...featuring 2 BG turnovers that were directly cashed in for 3FGs. 

BG kept the deficit in the high single digits and then came back to tie the game with 2 minutes left in the half.  KC led by 1 at the break.

BG continued to compete.  6 minutes into the second half, the lead was still 1. The Roos tipped it up to 4 with 9 minutes to play and then went on a 10-0 run featuring 3 BG turnovers and 2 3FGs for the Roos in the interim.

It was over at that point.  BG got it down to 7, KC Ball, in the last 2 minutes, but there was no making the difference up.

There were 67 possessions in the game, which is a little slower than we like to play but not too slow.  Anyway, the key issue for BG was on defense.  KC came in very offensively-challenged and scored 1.28 points per possession, the highest against BG this year.  They had a 69% EFG, which is better than BG shot against Morgan State.  It was 66% on 2FGs and 50% on 22 3FG attempts.  

BG shot the ball well (59% EFG) and 61% on 2FGs and 39% on 3FGs.  All of which is good shooting but not as good as KC.  The turnover difference overall was not huge, but BG's came in a couple clusters (as noted above) that let KC have runs that kept BG in the role of chaser.

BG has been working on zone defenses but reverted to a man for at least part of this one, probably in response to KC's 3FG shooting. 

Javonate Campbell had 27 points for BG on 10 of 16 and 1 of 1 shooting. He added 5 steals. (He is #2 in the nation in steals per game).  Marcus Johnson had 22 on  5 of 7 and 3 of 8 shooting.  Derrick Butler had 11 and a team-high 5 rebounds.

BG played 8 players....Felt, Johnson, Campbell, Butler, Thomas, Exacte, Green and Squier.  Humphrey, Towns and Khayat continued to be out.

Portal Update

So, a portal update for BG.  Been relatively quiet since the first few days....it's open for about two more weeks, so anything could happen.

Right now, it includes:

• Alex Wollschlaeger
• Terion Stewart
• Chris Edmonds
• Alijah Williams
• Edward Rhambo
• Joseph Sipp Jr.
• Jalen Burton
• Cam Orth
• Jaylon Tillman
• Nick Reimer
• Dierre Kelly

Wollschlaeger, Stewart and Sipp are all receiving P4 offers.  We wish everyone well.

BG has added one player from the portal.  His name is Jordan Dunbar.

He is from Tarrytown, New York, which is north of NYC on the Hudson River, right next to Sleepy Hollow.  He was all-state and a 2-star recruit out of HS with mostly FCS offers.  He went to Rice, where he was all-Freshman and all-CUSA Honorable Mention before he was red-shirted his last year.  He transferred to Kansas State, where he played only 66 non-special teams snaps, and most of those in blow-out wins.  PFF graded him a 66 on those snaps, which is the neighborhood he was in at Rice as well.

Welcome to the Falcons, Jordan.

Here is the updated two-deep...there are some corrections with players who had eligibility left but I had crossed them off.  The defense is decimated, but Coach says he likes the next generation of players.

Kansas City Preview

BG's Men's Basketball is on the road for the final time until MAC play as they travel to Kansas City to play....Kansas City...formerly known as UMKC.

They are the Roos...actually, their nickname was once the Kangaroos, but they shortened it.  They have played D1 basketball since 87-88 and have never been in the MAC tourney.  During that time, they have won 42% of their games.  Their specialty for two years was ruining UT's false dreams of an at-large bid.  

BG has played the Roos twice.  UMKC won at BG in 2016, and BG beat them by 10 at the Stroh last season.

They play in the Summit League. This is the #22 ranked conference...and the MAC is #20.  Their Coach was the Summit League Coach of the Year last year and they were picked by their media and Blue Ribbon to win the conference.

The year has not unfolded like that.  They are 5-7, but that includes 4 non D1 wins.  They lost @Iowa State (6), @Creighton (42)--both tough losses--but then to American (224) and Albany (233) on neutral floors, @SEMO (293), at home to Idaho (282) and then @Montana State (131). They finally picked up their first D1 win @Portland (312).

Their kenpom has sunk from 200 to start the year to 290 right now.  They have a 56% chance of beating BG, according to kenpom and 74% according to ESPN.  There's no line yet.

They have struggled to score historically and were hoping to turn that around this year, but it has not happened.  They are #309 in adjusted offensive efficiency.  (Out of 360-something). They have a lethal combination of terrible shooting (29.5% from 3FG and 42% from 2FG....#349 overall) and 20% turnover rate, #300.  They are average on the offensive boards, #204 at getting to the line and #26 at FT shooting.  They take A LOT of 3FGs....#29 in the nation at 48%.

Very tough to win at that rate.

They are not great on defense, #225 overall.  They are among the easiest teams to shoot against, especially on 2FGs--61%, which is #351. They are actually good on 3FG defense at 32% allowed.  They do force some turnovers (#116), are average on the defensive boards (#185) and don't give up a ton of FTs (#227).  

Their leading scorer and top player is Jamar Brown, scoring 13.3 PPG and about 6 RPG game.  Menzies said he should be the Horizon Player of the Year in the pre-season.  Although he is scoring, he is also struggling.  Last year he made 55% from 2FG, this year it is 44%.  This 3FG% is good at 41%.

Anderson Kopp is their second-leading scorer at 11 PPG.  He is scooting 52% and 34%.  Jayson Petty is also scoring in double figures at 10.6 PPG, but shooting 41% on 2FG and 20% on 49 3FG attempts.  Last year, he made 52% and 30%

All stats for D1 games only.  Reminder that BG is fighting injuries.  Hopefully, there was time for the minor injuries to heal.  The game will not be on ESPN+.  It is through Midco, which some of you might already have for the CCHA package.  Otherwise, it's a month subscription of $16 or so....or the audio feed.

Mackey No, Camp Yes

Harold Fannin did not get the Mackey Award.  I'm disappointed, I wish I was surprised.  This is a 100% ignorant and wrong decision and it is exactly what we have come to expect.  I could see it if we hadn't played Penn State and A&M and watched them be unable to stop Fannin.  The decision was lazy and wrong.  Yet there it is.

Let us not get lost in outrage though.  Because virtually at the same time, Fannin was named to the first-team Walter Camp All-American team.  The Walter Camp is the oldest All-American team---Camp used to name the team himself--and includes 130-some FBS coaches and SIDs doing the voting.  Fannin is the first BG player to be named to the Camp team and it is a huge honor.

I learned last night that there are 5 All-American teams that stand apart, of which Camp is one of them.  If Fannin makes two more, he will be the first consensus All-American in our program's history.

There were 3 MAC players on the Camp team.  Shaun Dolac, of UB and the MAC Defensive player of the year, and Addison West, an OL from WMU.

So congratulations to Harold.  It was an historic season for him.

Falcons to Mobile to Play Arkansas State

So, it's onto Mobile for the 68 Ventures Fund Bowl.  (68 Ventures is an investment firm in the Mobile area that appears to me to be a serious collection of badasses).  Mobile has had a bowl for a while....GMAC, Go Daddy, others.  BG has played in it 4 times...two wins and the last two they were absolutely routed.  The loss to Tulsa was, for a long time, the worst bowl loss in history, but I believe it has now been eclipsed.

The game will be the day after Christmas.  We will have more on Arkansas State coming up...they play in the Sun Belt and were 7-5/5-3.  I saw somewhere that BG is a 6.5 point favorite.

The exciting news from today is that while BG players have been declaring for the portal, it appears that BG will have a full or almost full lineup for the bowl game.  At his presser this morning, Scot Loeffler said, to everyone's surprise, that Harold Fannin Jr., will play in the game, even while saying that Fannin has "to get into the NFL as fast as he can."

Fannin does have a shot at some records for TEs, so that's an incentive. 

Second-best is Terion Stewart, who is in the portal and will also play.  Add Joseph Sipp, Sr. to that list.  In fact, Coach says that BG will have its starters in the game, largely intact. 

Most of the players on our two-deep are out of eligibility, and that means this is their last chance to play football.  They seem to be settling into a pretty driven approach to cap off their careers by snapping BG's bowl losing streak and ending their career with a win.

Arkansas State has a number of players in the portal as well.  No idea if they play.  In general, I always thought they don't play, but last year Howell played for BG despite being in the portal.

Coach said he would build a culture and you have to admit that this is a good example that it exists, using actions not words. I can't wait to see them perform once more.

Falcons Ease Past Morgan State

BG got what they were supposed to get, with an easy win over Morgan State, the #347 ranked team in the country.  The Bears went up 9-4, but Derrick Butler scored 5 points in the next :31 seconds and it was tied.  Three minutes later the lead was 11, and it was never in single-digits again.  Two minutes into the second half, BG pushed the lead to 22, and the lead was over 20 until the last seconds of the game. BG led by as much as 28.

The Falcons got there through hot-shooting.  

It was BG's first 100-point game since Robert Morris in 2021 (D1 games).

BG had 1.34 points per possession, most against D1 opposition since the Jans-led Falcons beat Ball State in the first round of the MAC tourney...that game was played at 62 possessions, this one at an obliging 76. 

BG made 70% of their 2FGs, the most since 2013, also against Ball State.  BG also had low turnovers, had an average game on the offensive boards and made 13 of 16 at the line...good percentage, not a ton of chances.

On defense, BG allowed 1.07 points per possession, which is nothing special.  Coach said after the game that BG was workshopping a match-up zone and wanted to get a lot of possessions on tape so they could build it out later.

Derrick Butler had a night,  He scored 35 points, on 7 of 12 2FG shooting and 6 of 9 3 FG shooting, added 6 rebounds.  He was #3 on kenpom's lines o' the night. 

BG ended up with 6 guys in double figures. Most notably, Javonte Campbell had 13 points on 6 of 7 from 2FG, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 steals.

Speaking of which, Javonte Campbell is #5 in steals per game in the nation.  Johnson is #5 in FT%.  In fact, the team is #10 in FT% (all of these include all games).

The team is facing a serious issue as we work through December.  BG is 26 days away from the MAC opener.  Sam Towns, Da'Jion Humphrey, Youssef Khayat and Greg Spurgin all did not dress.  Khayat was on a scooter.  Coach was asked about the injuries, and said that a couple of them were "indefinite," which I assume means a long-term injury. He didn't go into specifics, but that's a serious problem.  Further, he indicated that a couple of the guys who played (including Campbell) were close to not playing.

Clearly, that's a challenge this team does not need.  No reason to rush anyone back until the Akron game...next up is KC on the road next Saturday night. But think healing thoughts.

Morgan State Preview

Next up for MBB is the Morgan State Bears.

Morgan State plays in the MEAC Conference, which kenpom lists as the #29 conference out of 31 total.  They won the DII National Championship in 1974 and have been in the Big Dance twice.  They were picked #4 in the MEAC preseason poll and Blue Ribbon picked them #6.   They started the year #312 in kenpom and are now #341, out of 364.  NIU, the MAC's worst team, is #342.

They are 5-6 so far, but 4 of those wins are against non-D1 opposition. Their only D1 win was over NJIT (350).  They have lost to Mercyhurst (355), @Longwood (188), @NC A&T (300), @UB (329), Towson (156) and @UMBC (270).  So, that's 1-6 against the #346 non-conference schedule.

This is the 3rd time BG has played Morgan State.  BG won previous meetings in 2016 and 2022.  Kenpom gives BG a 77% chance of winning.  ESPN has it on 81%,

These guys do play fast, at 71 possessions a game.  All the stats below are D1 games only.

They are #323 in offense and #336 in defense.

They try only 21% of their shots from 3FG, which is the second-lowest percentage in the nation.  That's good because they make only 26%. They are better from 2FG, making 50.9% on 2FG, which is the national average.  They get 68% of their points on 2FG, which is the highest in the nation.

They turn the ball over a lot--20% of possessions.  As you would expect, their offensive rebounding is good at 33% (#104), but they do not get to the line for a team around the basket so much. They make 70% of their FTs, which is a tick below average.

Defensively, they are #241 defending the shot. Their 3FG (34.7%) and 2fG (52%) are below average. They are average forcing turnovers, average on the defensive boards, but they foul A lot! #350 in the country for free throw rate. They allow 24% of their FTs at the line. Average is 19%.

You'll hear a lot of stats during the game, but their stats are badly inflated by their non D1 games.  For example, this week they played two such games and scored 247 points.  These are D1 only.

Wynston Tabbs, who was pre-season All-MEAC, is scoring 14.3 PPG.  He makes 52% of his 2FGs and 16% of his 3FGs....and has made all 25 of his FTs.  Amahrie Simpkins, a 6'4" G is scoring 12 PPG on 60% 2FG shooting and only 1 3FG.  8 of 20 at the line. He also averages 5.7 RPG. 

BG MBB is going to be like a football team, playing on the next 3 Saturdays with nothing in between.  This one is on the schedule to win and we hope to see it happen.

Fannin MAC Player of the Year....Other All-MAC Selections

Big news today.  Harold Fannin, Jr. was named the MAC Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year.  He was the only choice, but you never know.  He is the first TE in FBS history to be a conference player of the year and the second TE to be offensive player of the year.

He is an all-time Falcon great.  Just a matter of time before he goes in our Hall of Fame, and if he makes All-American, he will go in the Cast of Honor.  And he should be All-American...from AP, as well as all the off-brand lists.  He has proven himself in every way.

In total, BG placed 9 players on the All-MAC team. Five were on first team, our most since 2015, which makes sense.  Miami tied us with 5 first-team picks.

Besides Fannin, first team players were 

• CB Jordan Oladokun
• ILB Joseph Sipp Jr
• RB Terion Stewart
• OL Alex Wollschlaeger

Second team was:

• P John Henderson 

Third team was:

• QB Connor Bazelak
• DL Anthony Hawkins
• CB Jacorey Benjamin.

Congrats to all of these guys who were part of a successful season.  Of the nine of them, 5 were recruited to BG out of high school.

Other awardees were:

2024 MAC Football Postseason Specialty Awards & All-Conference Teams

Coach of the Year:  Tim Albin, Ohio

Defensive Player of the Year:  Shaun Dolac, LB, Buffalo

Special Teams Player of the Year: Malcolm Gillie, KR, Ball State

Freshman of the Year:  Kadin Semonza, QB, Ball State

Dolac would have been the heavy favorite.  Albin or Lembo would have been good picks for Coach of the Year.

Gabbert was first team QB and Navarro second team.  Hard to argue too much, though I think Bazelak could have been 2nd team.  Navarro plays in a very different system, so it can be difficult to compare.

Signing Day, Loeffler wants HS recruiting, portal news and additional signee

Coach started by saying we had 20 commits and we would keep recruiting HS kids. That will be our formula.  We will go to the portal to fill gaps, but we want to recruit HS kids, even while acknowledging some may only stay 2 years.

He was asked how we keep the momentum going given the massive player loss the team will experience. First, he thinks last year's class was strong and "a bunch" of them will contribute next year.  We will use the portal to equal everything out.  This year, we have 30 guys graduating...so we will be in the portal a little deeper than we wish this year,  After this year, we will revert to a majority of our team being HS kids. He mentioned 15 portal players...I don't know if that was this year or a normal year moving forward.

The biggest news came to BG at 10:30 the night before signing day when JT Kitna called BG to commit.  Loeffler and Kitna's father--NFL QB Jon Kitna--know each other back to 2008 when they were both part of the Detroit Lions' 2008 winless season. He had called recently and wanted to visit BG.  He was committed to UAB, where his brother plays.  Loeffler's assumption was he was looking ahead to maybe a year from now--unsaid was the turmoil around the program with Trent Dilfer.  And then he committed. Was a highly recruited young man.

Wants a high school starter at QB.  For all the football guru stuff, he hasn't produced one HS QB in 6 years.

He doesn't know if the HS class is over...the early signing day means we haven't been on the road. When we get on the road, we might sign others. (In fact see below).

He says our retention rate is very high. He says there are guys in the program that everyone thinks are going to leave and they are not.  Which is interesting.

Speaking of which...since I last posted on the portal, Terrion Stewart and Dierre Kelly have both entered the portal.  Kelly did not play much this year and Stewart played a huge role. I don't think anyone is surprised that Stewart is leaving, however.

So, the full list of signees is here.  There are 20 listed.

Also, I had Reece Little of Findlay as a commit.  It's hard to tell sometimes, but he was part of the Findlay ceremony but wasn't signing an NLI, so I assume he is a PWO.

We offered two OLs in the portal since the presser.

And we have an additional signee.  He is Cash Lewis, from Windsor, CT and is currently playing in the state playoffs.  He is 6'3" or 4, and 215 pounds, WR and LB in college.  Tweets from BG indicate we will slot him at edge rusher. He was offered by UMass, UConn, BG and Morgan State.

Here is what BG lists on him:

• Played wide receiver and linebacker at Windsor High School for head coach Rob Fleeting 

• As a senior caught 45 passes for 895 yards and 11 touchdowns as team is in the midst of the state playoffs in 2024 with a 10-0 record

• Is 34-6 all-time so far in his high school career

• Has notched three interceptions and returned for 100 yards 

• As a junior in 2023 he caught 15 passes for 230 yards and four touchdowns 

• All-state honoree  

• Two-time all-conference

Welcome to the Falcons, Reece and Cash.  And best of luck to Terrion and Dierre in their future endeavors.

BG Flips Ball State Recruit

BG announced a flip from Ball State--who just hired their new coach today--and that is Tyron "Ba" Steed of St. Louis. He is a 6'2" and 164 pound safety, with 3 stars.  Offers from CMU, Indiana, Jackson State, Kansas, Louisville, Marshall, Memphis, Missouri State, Ole Miss, UCF and WVU.

Welcome to the Falcons, Ba.

Signing Day, Portal News

So, it is signing day.  A couple of interesting additions for BG...

First, the year's first contributor heading to the portal.  Joseph Sipp, Jr., has entered the portal.  He was a big contributor and it wouldn't surprise me to see him on the all-MAC team. 

It's about 9 AM, and of the 18 players I had publicly identified, 11 of them are in.  We are two commits right now who are new to me, both highly recruited.

Aiden Brewer, who had been a TE commit, de-committed in November.

The first is JT Kitna.  JT is from the Cincy area and played for his Father, NFL QB Jon Kitna.  He is a flip from UAB and also a QB.  He would be the 2nd QB in the class when Carsen Melvin signs.  Melvin still lists BG commit on his x handle.

His brother is also a QB at UAB, which is interesting because former NFL QB Trent Dilfer is the head coach there...NFL connections at work.

JT had offers from Ball State, Baylor, UConn, Duke, Houston, Indiana, James Madison, K-State, Kent, Liberty, UMass, N. Texas, OU, Pitt, Syracuse, Texas Tech, UT, UTSA, WVU and WMU.

Even better, he will enroll in January.

Here's the bio BG is providing.

• Was a two-year starting quarterback at Lakota East High School for head coach Jon Kitna 

• Holds Lakota East records for most passing touchdowns and most passing yards in a game, season and career 

• Completed 187 of 316 passes for 2,711 yards and 27 touchdowns as a senior for the Thunderhawks, who improved from a 1-9 to an 8-4 record while winning their first playoff game since 2020 

• Rushed for 203 yards and four touchdowns as a senior 

• Started as a sophomore at Burleson High School in Texas, playing for his father and head coach, Jon 

The other is Brendon Rice from Farmington Hills, MI.  He's a 6'3" and 250 lb DL who had offers from Rice, Akron, Arkansas State, BSU, UB, CMU, much of the Ivy League, Howard, Kent, Marshall, UMass, Miami, UT, WIU, WMU and Youngstown State.

He had committed to Rice, but de-commited due to the coaching change.  He was all-conference and all-district.  Presumably more to come on him...

(Update;  Here is what BG has now).

• Played defensive line for head coach Jon Herstein at North Farmington High School 

• Two-time first-team All-State honoree 

• Team captain 

• Also earned all-region, All-OAA and all-area twice 

• Three-time all-league honoree  

• Posted 49 tackles, 24.0 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, 11 pressures 

• Also participated in track and field, 2 forced fumbles and one fumble recovers as a senior in 2024 

• Led state in tackles for loss 

• Notched 55 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, nine pressures, 3.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and secured one safety in 2023 

• Led the state in tackles for loss in 2023 

So JT and Brendon, welcome.  And best of luck to Joseph Sipp, Jr.

Football Roster Updates Before Signing Day

So, tomorrow is signing day.  Nothing like the off-season for what has become the silliest season of all--roster re-build year in college football.

Let's start with the roster before there are any portal moves.  BG had an "old team," and it shows.  The Falcons lose a lot of talent on offense, and for this purpose I have Fannin and Stewart still on the roster--Fannin is likely to leave....not sure about Stewart.  But the defense is decimated.  17 contributing players will no longer have eligibility.  There are young players on the next level, but this is a huge amount of talent we need to replace.

The vision--the idea that there would be a self-replacing wave of players--is going to be even more difficult to achieve in today's world.  At least half of those 17 players were transfers.

From the portal, BG has three players who have entered, none of them real contributors.  One is Jaylon Tillman, the Grand Valley transfer, who might have contributed but left the roster early in the year and is likely to be part of the promised LoefflerRant.

Also, Chris Edmonds, a RB from Toledo Central Catholic, who has carried three times. Also, OLB Alijah Williams who made one tackle against Fordham.

The known players who have verballed are listed in the left sidebar for the blog.  Let the silly season begin.

Past Opponent Land. How did it all shake out?

Past Opponent Land:

Fordham: (2-9)  

PSU:  (11-1) Beat Maryland, in Big 10 Title Game

TX A&M: (8-4) Lost to Texas, on playoff bubble

ODU:  (5-7)  Beat Ark State

Akron:  (4-8) Closed with win over Rockets

NIU: (7-5)  Closed with win over CMU

KSU:  (0-12) First non-COVID winless season in FBS in 5 years

UT:  (7-5) Lost to Akron

CMU (4-8)  New coach time.  Mora??

WMU: (6-6) Bowl eligible.

BSU (3-9): New coach time.

MU:  (8-4) Playing for the title.

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

MBB Wins Close One in Tempe

 BG went to Tempe to play two games in an MTE.  They ended up with the two best teams in the tournament and both games came down to the final possession.  And, BG picked up the win in the second, a nice win for our club.

First, BG played both games without Sam Towns and Youssef Khayat, presumably to injury.  The BG starters were Johnson, Butler, Thomas, Campbell and Exacte.

It was a close game the entire way, with no team leading by more than 7.  That was even truer in the first half, when no team led by more than 5 and BG held the lead for 12 minutes.  BG led by 3 at the break.  Key note is that while the game was close, the shooting was terrible on both sides.

Dr. Naismith explains basketball to a Springfield resident

The Falcons held the lead for the first five minutes of the half before the Aggies took a 31-30 lead.

The next few minutes were closely contested, with leads within 2 points either way. 

With 7 minutes left, a short run put the Aggies up by 7, but a 10-3 run tied the game with 3:22 left.

The game went from 3:22 to 1:23 with no scoring at all.  NM State got a 3FG with 1:33 left.  Felt was fouled after getting an offensive rebound and missed both FTs (4-6 on the night). 

With 1:14 left, the Aggies were fouled and split the pair, now up 4.  At that point, New Mexico State has a 90% chance of winning. 

Campbell missed a 3FG, but Johnson got the offensive board.  BG called time and Johnson scored and was fouled...converting the and-one and the lead was down to 1 with :50 left.

NM State ran clock and finally shot with :23 left.  They missed and Johnson cleared the board. 

BG called time with :15 left.  Campbell drove to the rim and drew the foul.  He converted both FTs and BG was up 1.

Aggie timeout.  They get a drive to go for the win, and though it doesn't show up in the play by play, Derrick Butler blocked the shot and preserved the Falcon win.

The game was played at 67 possessions.  It was a terrible night for the art of offensive basketball.  BG had .91 points per possession, shooting 32% on 2FG and 24% on 3FG.  I went to try and see when BG shot this poorly and won, and I didn't have to look any farther than last year's Southern Indiana game. The Aggies had .89 points per possession.  They shot a little better (32% on 2FG and 36% on 3FG), but had double the turnovers but were very good on the offensive glass.  

The key difference was at the line.  BG committed 15 fouls and the Aggies committed 22.  Here, BG got the ball into the peach basket. BG was 26 of 30 at the line.  NM was 8-10.

BG is #9 in the country in FT%.

Marcus Johnson had a big night.  He scored 23 on 5 of 8 and 2 of 5 shooting. He made all 7 FTs, added 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.  Butler had 15, though less efficient.  He was 2 of 8 and 2 of 7 shooting.  He did have 5 rebounds 5-5 at the line and the game's most important defensive play. Campbell had 12...1 of 9 2FG shooting, but 10-12 at the line and 8 rebounds.  Felt has 12 rebounds in 29 minutes and 2 blocked shots.

Exacte started but only played 4 minutes.  No idea why.

So, BG has the week off.  Next up is Morgan State at home....a game they should absolutely win.

For today, they are 3-5, 2-5 in D1 games. The conference is off to a poor start as everyone tries to find their way.  

MBB plays at 2

So, not much to comment on MBB since I was following on my phone while at the Doyt.

BG played Weber State in Tempe and lost in the final seconds.  We had a 10-point lead with 14 left to play in the game (84% chance to win) and WSU scored the next 9 points to cut it to 1.  The game bounced back and forth and then WSU went up 4 or so and BG came back and with 2:09 the game was tied.  BG got two stops and failed to score on theirs. Campbell was fouled with :48 left. He split the pair to put BG up 1.  WSU made a layup with :28 to go up 1.  BG had last shot, Johnson missed a 3FG with :06 left and it was over.

Khayat and Towns both were DNP.  My sources (FalconMedia) say Khayat was injured late against Bellarmine.  No idea about Towns.

Butler had 16 on 4 of 8 and 1 of 5 shooting. Campbell had 13 on 4 of 9 2FG shooting. Green had 10. Felt added 7 rebounds in 11 minutes.  Overall, BG shot 45% from 2FG, 29% from 3FG and made 86% at the line.  WSU was very similar in all areas, except making 63% on 2FG, which was the difference.

Next up is New Mexico State for the 2-5 Falcons.  They were picked #7 in CUSA, which is the #10 conference.  They are 3-3 and 2-4 in D1 games. They beat Utah Tech (295), TAM-Corpus Christi (208), lost to Dayton (24) by 19, UNLV (108) and then Pepperdine (255) yesterday.  That's 3 losses in a row.

They are really struggling to shoot the ball.

We'll get more into it tomorrow.

Sadness Accures

And there was much unhappiness.

Doesn't feel any better the next day. What a heartbreaking day.

Don't want to send the wrong message.  Very proud of what this program became this year.  It was a long haul and a 6-2 record in the MAC with a win over Toledo was a rewarding year. It was a fun season...fun to watch games and figure we will win.  There were spurts of excellence and some disappointing moments.  The ODU loss...but really the NIU loss at home.  That one was really costly.

It's heartbreaking for all that.  And when you see how hard you have to work to get a shot, and then it slips away.  Winning championships is really hard.  We have an experienced team that stuck together. This was the time.  Until it wasn't.  And we will get another shot, but the guys who stuck with us, who played through all that mess, who worked to make this team what it was...they won't get another shot.  Period.

Coach Loeffler choked up twice in his presser, where nobody seemed to be able to even ask him a question. Make no mistake:  this is a pain that you only feel when you commit yourself totally to a goal.  I have been there. Those with one foot in do not know it.

It is the cruel nature of sport. Somebody's heart had to be broken yesterday.

In the end, Miami was just a little better than us.

We knew all year that the offensive line was not elite.  Sometimes they were good, sometimes they were average and sometimes less than average.  Always resilient.  (Also, fighting through a severe mid-year disruption).

And we knew that we were not getting the production at WR that teams do in this day and age.

Those were decisive issues yesterday.  Miami won more battles on the line of scrimmage and BG could not establish a running game. Even removing sacks, most of our backs were under 4 yards per carry. Then, they double or even triple-teamed Fannin.  One time, I saw four guys around him.  He wasn't 100% and they were able to neutralize him.

So something had to be open...but we didn't have the WRs to take advantage.   Bazelak had a rough game...and so the offense sputtered and made victory an uphill climb the whole way.

The defense kept us in the game.  Two INTs.  Held Miami to zero first downs in the 3rd quarter--26 yards on 12 plays.

And finally BG gets a drive.  Late 3rd/early 4th. Fannin completes a stumbling TE pass to Gazerak, who makes a miracle catch to convert a 3rd and 2.

BG finally driving.  Levi Gazerak with two more catches, Johnson with a 22-yard run, and then Patterson the score.  FINALLY.  A 92-yard, 11-play drive that makes it 14-12.

11 minutes left in the game.

Second play of Miami's drive...BG blitzes, Gabbert steps up and hits a WR who gets behind our great defense when we just can't let that happen, and in one play it's 21-12 with 10:30 left and the game is essentially over.  BG never crossed their own 30 again.  Everything before it is erased.

There were bunches of play.  As mentioned, two INT for BG.  Bazelak threw one.  BG got a safety.  BG struggled badly with punting. There was a terrible no-call on PI against Fannin.  MU got the lucky catch of all time at the end of the first half when BG had cut the deficit to 2. There were only 3 penalties in the game.  

I was thrilled with the crowd.  The weather was appalling and every BG fan was 10 minutes from a warm house and a television.  Another reason to be heartbroken.  With us against OU, they might have sold out Ford Field.

Sigh.

More on the future to come.  There's a bowl game, almost for sure without Harold Fannin. Who knows what else will happen when the portal opens.  Coach Loeffler is entering the last year of his contract and the BG turnaround has drawn notice elsewhere.

For today?  Today is a heartbreaking day.

Happy Thanksgiving to the Falcon Nation

 

Preview of the Big Game

What is their body of work?

Miami is the traditional MAC power in football.  After Big Ben left, they went through some dark years--14 straight losing seasons--before Chuck Martin broke through in his sixth year with an 8-6 record.  The last two years have been excellent.  They are 13-2 in the last two years in the MAC and are the defending champions.

Since Martin arrived, the RedHawks are 5-2 against BG.  Jinks won one and Loeffler won the last game played at the Doyt.  Last year, Miami wiped BG out 27-0 in Oxford.

BG is a 2-point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 27 juniors and seniors, which is a young team in 2024.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +7 in MAC games, mostly in INT.  BG creates a new game by taking care of the ball.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

Gabbert is a good QB.  PFF ranks him #10 and #7 as a runner.  He was third-team All-MAC last year, when he had a significantly better year.  He leads the MAC in passing efficiency.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are  #5 in scoring with 30.5 points per game but #1 in yards per play at 6.8.  BG's defense allows 15.4 points per game, which is tied for second with Miami.  The Falcons allow 4.6 yards per play (3rd).

Can they run the ball?

Yes.  They are #3 at 5.3 yards per carry.  BG allows 3.7 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #5 in pass efficiency.  Gabbert is #7.  He has completed 57% of his passes, 15 TDs over 2INT and a stunning 15.3 yards per reception. Reggie Virgil is #1 in the MAC with 23 yards per reception.  BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 47% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

Not really.  35% which is #9 in the MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

They have only one empty trip in 25 attempts.  However, 11 of those were FGs.  Overall, the 4.96 is not great. Between the 3rd down and red zone, this is why their yards per play is way better than their scoring. BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.2 points per trip allowed. 

Do they protect the QB?

They have allowed sacks on 7.2% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7.8% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are tied for 2nd with BG at 15.4 PPG.  They lead the MAC allowing 4 yards per play.  BG scores 28. which is #6 and 5.7 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

Yes. At 2.8 yards per carry, they are #1 in the MAC. At 4.1 yards per carry, BG's offense is #7. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are 1st in passing efficiency defense.  They allow 56% completions, have 10 INT and 9.5 yards per completion. BG is #2 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They allow 41% which is #9.  BG converts 35%, which is #8.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 5.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.8 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

They do, they have sacks on 8.2% of passes. BG allows sacks on 8.6% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

While their kicker is a boomer, they are #7 in net punting. BG is #1.

Punt Return?

Middle of the pack

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 22 of 26 with a long of 51.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 23. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 26 (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

I'd say this is the biggest game played at the Doyt in terms of MAC play since the MAC title Big Ben game on December 4, 2023.  If you remove UT games and the Indiana G-O-G-O game, I think this is the biggest game we have had in a long time.  Reminds me a lot of the fat punter game.

Let's hope people come back to town.  I recall during Meyer I we had a great crowd for the day after Thanksgiving, but that was Toledo.  A big crowd would be great.  Will be cold.  Could snow.  

Just to be frank, Miami is the cause of a significant number of banana-peel moments in our history.  There was Hall-of-Famer Don Nehlen forgetting what down it was. A ridiculous rally in MBB that gave the Miami SID a heart attack. Fog Bowl.  The last grass game at the Doyt...think Charlie Brown FG.  We tried to make it go away by giving it a name---the Miami Whammy.  Still hasn't come too far.

In fact, until UT became a state school, Miami was our top rival.  They own the series with us.

For today, as mentioned, we are 2-point favorites.  You can see above that the game appears to be very evenly matched.  I think it will be low scoring and determined by one or two plays.

Like all football games, it will be decided up front. BG must run the ball and protect the QB.  Miami is really difficult to pass against, and we need to run the ball to open the offense up.  Same is true of them.  We have a defense that can compete with theirs.

I am really looking forward to the game.  We have waited a long time for this game.  Let's back the boys.,,,

Weber State preview

While the football team plays its biggest home game in 20 years or so, the MBB team will be in Tempe playing in an MTE, starting with Weber State.  Depending on the result, they will play Pepperdine or New Mexico State on Saturday.

The games won't be played in Arizona State's basketball arena, but in Mullet Arena, as pictured below.

No seriously.  Mullet is a 5,000 seat arena where the ASU ice hockey teams play, a G-league team, etc. The NHL Coyotes have played there as well.

The first opponent is Weber State. The Wildcats. They play in the Big Sky Conference, which is currently the #21 conference.  The MAC is currently #20.

It's WE-ber, not WEB-er.  The school was named after Weber County, where it is, and the county was named after a fur trader named John Henry Weber who was German and apparently said his name "VE-ber."

They have been to the NCAA tournament 16 times, most recently in 2016.  Coaching legend Dick Motta coached them to the 1968 tournament ...

Blue Ribbon had them #2 in the Big Sky.  The coaches had them 4th and the media had them 3rd.

The year is off to a tough start.  They had played a tough early schedule, standing at 2-4 in all games and 0-4 in D1 games.  That includes @Oregon State (#95, lose by 28), @Nevada (#36, lose by 30), @Hawaii (#191, OT loss), UC Irvine at home (#61, 6-point loss). Their kenpom has fallen from 175 to 230, mostly because of the margin of defeat in those first two games and the fact that they are winless when D1 games only are counted.

That's the #19 schedule to date in the country, discounting non-D1 games.  CMU has played the toughest schedule in the MAC, #34.

I suspect Weber State will show up pretty hungry.

Their adjusted efficiency (for schedule, road games, etc) is 1.04 on offense, which is below the national average.  They are allowing 1.09, which is poor.  

Their adjusted tempo is 68, which is pretty slow.

Looking at offense, their biggest weakness has been shooting.  They are making 44% on 2FG and 31% on 3FG, both well below average.  Combined, they are #308 in shooting out of 364.  Their turnovers are a little better than average and their offensive rebounding a little worse.  They get to the line a lot (#115)  but make only 66% (#294).  14% of their shots have been blocked, which is a lot.  Even worse is BG, which has 16.8% of its shots blocked, among the 10 worst in the country.

Defensively, things are a little worse. They allow an unbelievable 43% on 3FG, which is #358 in the country. They are #221 in defending the 2FG. They don't force turnovers (#256), are poor on their own boards (#223) and give up a staggering amount of FTs (#339).

Their leading scorer is Blaise Threatt, a 6'3" Sr. G with 19 PPG on 51% 2FG shooting and 33% 3FG shooting. He's their only double-figure scorer.  They have a few guys around 8 PPG.  One player to watch is Miguel Tomley, who caused a whole Big Sky controversy over transferring in the conference from Idaho State.

Dyson Koehler is their top rebounder, at 6'7".  They have a 6'1" C from Montengro.  (Vucinic.  Why are there no guards from Central Europe?)

They have 3 Canadians, one Englishman, one Finn, 2 Serbians, one Montenegran and one Japanese player.

So off we go.  Kenpom gives Weber State a 60% chance of winning.

BG MBB Signee

 BG MBB has announced one more early signing period player.  His name is Aidan Goins, a 6'9" C who is playing this year at Walters State, a community college in Tennessee. It's early in the year, but he is averaging 17.2 points per game while shooting 58.9-percent from the field and 60-percent from three on 15 attempts.

Last year, he played at Motlow State, putting up good numbers there, too. He was also all-district coming out of HS.

In the official BGSU release, Coach Simon said...

"Aiden is a dynamic big man that we see as an inside and outside threat. His skill set will put a lot of pressure on defenses. His fit on and off the court is perfect for us. We look forward to having him help us on our journey to bring a championship to Bowling Green."

This is exactly the kind of big man we have been trying to collect.

Welcome to the Falcons, Aidan.

Sad Story from Louisville

 Name one sentence you never thought you'd say....how about...

"Bellarmine sure has our number."

Good choice.

The Knights have won 6 DI games since the beginning of last season, and two of them are double-digit wins over the Falcons.

We are off to a rough start.  It's a lot of guys to put together.  I'd hoped that the European trip might have helped but right now it's looking rough.

BG led early, but Bellarmine took the lead 7 minutes in and did not trail again.  They led by 5 at the half, had the lead in single digits 2 minutes into the 2nd half.  BG made a 9-0 run to get the lead to 4 with about 15 to play, and it was still 4 with 9 to play.  An 8-0 Bellarmine run put the lead back to 12 with 7 to play.  The teams traded 3FGs for a minute, but the lead was up to 16 with 4 to play and that was all there was to talk about.  Final was 80-68.

The game was played at 68 possessions, which is slow for how BG plays but not really slow. The key point is the Falcons allowed 1.18 points per possession, which is comparable to the MSU and Davidson losses and scored 1 point per possession, which is not winnable.  We won one game at 1 point per possession or lower....Southern Indiana last year (54-52).

BG took a season high 47% of their shots from 3FG, making 38%, which isn't bad.  The 44% they made on 2FGs was not helpful, however, and it equalled out to an average shooting night. Turnovers were not bad, but the offensive rebounding was terrible and BG did not get to the line very much either, making 12 of 16.

Bellarmine had a 58% EFG, the best against BG this year. They made 46% on 2FG and 40% on 3FG.  Tough to beat a team that shoots like that. Their turnovers were good, they also did not do well on the offensive boards and they made 20 of 22 at the FT line.

BG had two players with 20 points. Campbell had 21, 7 of 9 2FG shooting and 2 of 3 3FG.  He did have 4 turnovers. Derrick Barnes Butler (we regret the error) also had 21 of 3 of 5 and 5 of 9 shooting and 4 rebounds.  Yo-Yo had 11 on 2 of 4 and 1 of 2 shooting. Marcus Johnson was held to 9 and a team high 6 rebounds. Took only 7 shots.  Trey Thomas had 4 assists and 0 turnovers but was 1-7 from 3FG and was blocked 3 times.

At 2-4, 1-4 in MAC games, BG has a few days off.  They will play Weber State on Friday in Tempe.

And down the stretch they come.....

 

Credit here to the MAC Sports Connection Podcast for sorting out the final permutations for the last week.  This is what I came up with as well.

If BG wins, they could play Ohio or Miami.  Note that the 5th scenario would be Buffalo win, not loss.

#4 is the one that gets crazy.  BG/UB/and OU are tied.  Among common opponents, BG and UB and undefeated and OU has a loss (Ball State).  Which eliminates them.  You got to head-to-head among BG and UB's common opponents, which is still a tie.  Both teams lost one game in a common opponent...BG lost to NIU and UB lost to WMU.  The tiebreaker would be decided by whether NIU or WMU finishes higher in the final standings, all tie breakers applied.

Ultimately, BG wins they are in and could play OU, Miami or UB.

BG can make it with a loss to Miami, but only if OU loses to Ball State, in Athens at the same time as our game. 

Candidly, as much as I love scenarios, I don't think Ball State is very likely to walk out of Athens with a win.  ESPN gives BG a 58% chance to win and OU an 87% chance to win.  Also, UB is likely to beat Kent. (93%).

But, it could happen.

The most likely scenario is that it will be OU. The scenario does exist where BG would have to beat Miami twice in a row to win the championship.

No one said it would be easy.

Here is the opponent tracker...

Fordham (2-9) Lost to Merrimack

PSU:  (10-1) Beat Minny by one

TX A&M: (8-3) Lost to Auburn in 4OT.

ODU:  (4-7)  Lost to Marshall.  No bowl for you.

Akron:  (3-7) #MACTION

NIU: (6-5) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-11) #MACTION

UT:  (7-4) #MACTION

CMU (4-7) #MACTION

WMU: (5-6) #MACTION

BSU (3-8): #MACTION

MU:  (7-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Falcons Win, Head to the BIG GAME

Ok, kids.  We have waited a long time to be here...we are heading to the Doyt on Friday to play a big game.  How long?  I've tried to figure out...probably a post this week...but it has to be 10 years since we played a game this big on our field...excluding UT and Indiana, etc.  It reminds me of the Fat Punter game a little, except that was for the title.  Let us hope we exorcise that demon and any other number of Miami demons.

Remember, for context, BG is playing the top scoring offense in the MAC.  Ball State gets the ball and goes three and out.  BSU gets a long roll on the punt and BG starts on their own 7.

And BG goes on a dream drive.  Just the thing you want when you are playing a high-octane offense.  15 plays, 93 yards and 8:44 off the clock.  And a touchdown.  Three 3rd-down conversions---one at 5 yards and 2 at one yard--finished with Bazelak to Fannin on first and goal...and BG had a 7-0 lead.

BS took the ball and converted a 3rd and 9.  BG got a first down sack and BS had a short punt this time and BG started on their 30.

BG went three and out and then BS drove to the BG 48 before BG got a 4th down stop and gave the offense great field position.  

And BG gave up a sack and went three and out.  Coach said after the game that the Falcons missed two open plays on the 2nd and 3rd drive that would have broken the game wide open...one was caused by pressure and one was a wide open throw to Johnson that Bazelak just missed.

The game was in the second quarter by then.  With about 5 minutes left, Stewart fumbled and BSU recovered on the BG 25.  A moment of maximum danger...literally...as BS ran a ridiculous WR pass that hit Oladokun in the numbers and BG had the ball back. 

BG appeared to get some momentum and drove to the BSU 25 where the drive stalled.  Zach Long, who is developing into a stud, drilled a 43-yarder and BG had a 10-point lead.

To this point, Coach said that BG was missing big plays on offense and doing "uncharacteristic" things on defense, even as they were holding BSU scoreless.  And that usually comes back to haunt teams.  Ball State had used timeouts when BG had the ball and they mounted a drive.  It was at midfield and appeared to be doing nowhere when BG pressured Semonza. He escaped the pocket and hit a RB on a broken route and he ran the 51-yards into the end zone to make it 10-7 at the half.

Coach said no one panicked in the locker room.  Adjustments were made and the team came out ready to clean things up.  BG got the ball and ran another long drive....15 plays in 6:44.  This one got to the BSU 10 before Bazleak took a sack and the Falcons had to finish with a FG to make it 13-7.

Still facing an offense that can score, but BG's defense was solid again, forcing a three and out.  Another poor punt was followed by a big return/penalty that netted the Falcons with the ball on the BSU 46.

Two passes to Fannin and 43 yards later, BG was on the 3 and on 3rd down Rahkeem Smith took an end around into the end zone and BG had a 21-7 lead with 4 minutes to play in the 3rd.  (Bazelak and Johnson made a sweet pass and catch to get the conversion.)

The defense got a 3 and out again and on the second play of the BG's drive, Bazelak hit Smith in the left flat.  He absolutely smoked the defender and had nothing but open field.  The young man can run and it was a 66-yard TD reception and BG had a 28-7 lead late in the 3rd.  

In four minutes of game time, the issue was settled. 

BSU had the ball, punting on the first play of the 4th quarter...punt was partially blocked and BG started on the BSU 46.  They moved the chains on a 4th and 3 DPI and then ended up with a 48-yard FG from Long to make it 31-7.

The teams traded TDs on the next two possessions, including Smith's 3rd TD of the game.  BG won 38-13.

It was far from our best game....but in a trap game situation, against a wild card team with an interim coach but the ability to score...on the road....empty stadium....this was the outcome we needed.  Honestly, anything where they aren't in the game in the 4th quarter is a success.

BG's defense was the story, as they increasingly are.  BG held BSU to 43 yards rushing.  That includes sacks...the BSU backs were 17 for 75, a 4.4 yard per carry rate. Semonza, the #4 passer in the MAC, was held to just over 50% completions 11 yards a completion and 4 sacks.  There's the INT on the gadget pass and Tanner Koziol was held to 5 matches for 27 yards. Overall, BSU had 254 yards and 4.1 yards per play, with some of that coming in garbage time...BSU had 86 yards in the 4th.

On offense, BG did not establish the run.  Stewart had 10 carries for 32 yards and a lost fumble. Patterson was 5 for 15.  BG got some run yards from Bazelak and Smith, but by and large did not run the ball effectively.

Bazelak was 18 of 29 for 299, which is 14.2 yards per reception, a big number. (Really a team stat). He was sacked twice and continued to be effective on play action and when he isn't pressured.

Fannin was 9 for 125 and 1 TD.  He has to be first-team AP All-American at TE.  Every team is focused on stopping him and no one has succeeded.

FYI, he left the game injured and returned to the field but not the game.  He had his helmet.  Loeffler has promised to provide injury updates on "a couple" guys tomorrow.  I suspect they will be game time decisions ;)

Smith had 81 receiving yards and 3 total TDs.  He has made a big difference.  With Garcia not playing at all, we were really light at WR and having him out there is a perfect example of making the most of your opportunities. (and according to the stats he blocked a punt).

True FR Kal-El Pascal made 8 tackles and a TFL. Sipp had 2 sacks and a break up. Saad and Davis had sacks. Saad also forced a fumble on his sack. BG broke up 8 passes---8 different guys. Oladokun had a pick and seemed to be all over the place...more than the numbers indicated.

This is a stout defense.  

Long was 3-3 including a 48-yarder, outdoors in November. Henderson was effective punting, putting 3 inside the 20. 

So, more later on the big game.  Miami is very good.  We are playing very well.  It's going to be a game of defenses and line of scrimmage play.

Cardinal Preview

What is their body of work?

Things have been better in Muncie.  ln 2013, the Cards went 10-3 under the leadership of Pete Lembo...rumors were that Clawson snatched the Wake Forest job out from under Lembo with the win over NIU at Ford Field.  Anyway, since then, they have 10 losing years out of 11.  Alum Mike Neu was fired and this is the first game the interim will coach.

They are 3-7 and 2-4.  Their 4 losses have been by 15 points, leading people to say that they are 15 points from being undefeated.  Their two wins are by 4, so they are also 4 points from being winless.

Due to the unbalanced schedule, BG and Ball State have hardly played.  If you want to look at our last 10 meetings, you are stretching back to the Blackney era.  BG has won 8 of those last 10. Their last loss in Muncie was in 1995.

BG is an 11-point road favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 23 juniors and seniors, which is a young team.

Who are their national leaders?

Malcon Gillie is #9 in combined kick yards, #16 in KO returns, 

Tanner Koziol is #4 in receptions per game.

(From here on, MAC games only unless noted)

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are +5 in MAC games.   Had +4 in the win over NIU.

Offense

How is their QB play? 

He is a redshirt-FR--Kadin Semonza--and he's from California.  He played in 4 games last year. He's #4 in passing efficiency...65% completed, 14 TD over 5 INT and 11.6 yards per completion. Bazelak is #2.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They lead the MAC in scoring with 34.5 points per game #4 in yards per play at 5.9. (There are those turnovers at work). BG's defense allows 15.8 points per game, which is 3rd.  The Falcons allow 4.7 yards per play (4th).

Can they run the ball?

Not really.  They are #9 at 3.9 yards per carry.  BG allows 4.0 per rush, 4th in MAC.

Do they pass the ball?

As a team, they are #2 in pass efficiency. BG is #2 in pass defense efficiency.

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 52% of their plays, sack-adjusted.

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They do.  42%, #2 in MAC.  BG allows 31% which is #2 in the MAC.

Do they score in Red Zone?

5 points per trip, which is not bad.  BG defense is really good in the red zone, with 4.1 points per trip allowed. BG has forced 3 scoreless trips and 6 FGs in 16 trips.

Do they protect the QB?

Yes, sacks on 5.4% of passing attempts.  BG gets sacks on 7% of passing attempts.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are #11 in scoring defense in the MAC (36) and 10th in yards per play allowed (6.6).  BG scores 26. which is #7 and 5.8 yards per play which is #5.

Do they defend the run effectively?

No, #11 at 5.4 yards per carry allowed. At 4.4 yards per carry, BG's offense is #6. 

Can they be passed on?

Yes. They are #7 in passing efficiency defense.  They have allowed only 59% completions, 16 TDs over 6 INT and over 13 yards a completion, which is a ton.  BG is #3 in team passing efficiency.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

BSU allows 40, which is #7.  BG converts 34%, which is #10.

Do they defend in the red zone?

No. They allow 6.1 per trip. BG offense scores 4.6 per trip, which is not great.

Do they pressure the QB?

Average, they have sacks on 5.7% of passes. BG allows sacks on 9% of pass attempts.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are last in net punting. No blocks.  They have pooch-punted 6 times all year  In MAC play, BG is #3.

Punt Return?

Ah no.  They have one net punt return yard.

Placekicking? 

He's good.  Made 11 of 13 with a long of 52.

Kickoff? 

Opponents start on the 26. (All games)

Kickoff Return?

They start on the 27, with a TD (All games).

Intangible Miscellany

A bunch here.

First, Ball State has an interim coach.  That can impact a team either way.  Sometimes it wakes them up, sometimes they write the year off.  In the portal era, where guys are looking elsewhere by mid-season, it seems likely to me that you get the bad side of that equation.  I'm watching Temple right now, and they are in that boat, and they aren't rolling over.  Anyway, it's a variable to be sure.

This is a classic trap game.  You have the perceived big game next Friday, but you need this one first. (I have not heard anything official on whether BG is out if they lose to Ball State...perhaps more will be revealed tomorrow.)  But, the most direct way for BG to make it is to win both games.  And they cannot look past this one....BSU has been competitive all season.  If we don't come to play, we will lose.

Weather is supposed to be dry and in the 40s tomorrow.  To me, the key is the BG run game.  BSU can be run against, and if we can control the ball and keep the game from being a shoot out, we should be able to pick this one up.  We've had some time off.  This should be a win.

Bellarmine Preview

The Men's Basketball team makes its way down to Louisville to take on Bellarmine.

Bellarmine (the Knights) are in their 4th year in Division I.  They have had some decent years, but the last couple years have been pretty rough. They went 8-23 last year and 4-12 in the Atlantic Sun.  Blue Ribbon picked them 8th...ASUN coaches had them 10th and the media had them 11th.

This year they are 0-5.  That includes home losses to VMI (kenpom #342) and Southern Indiana (318),  along with @VCU, @Marshall and @Louisville.

Their current kenpom is 336.

Which would all be something to look forward to, except that last year they beat us by 18 at the Stroh, riding hot shooting that was the best against BG in five years before that.   It was worse than that.  I said they were 8-23, but only 5 of those wins were in D1 and therefore one of those was against BG.

It was probably the low point of the season.

Bellarmine was legit in DII.  They made 22 NCAA tournaments and won it in 2011.  Their coach is Scott Davenport, who has been their 22 years.  He has won 72% of his games. He is 57-67 in DI.

As of today on Kenpom, the Atlantic Sun is the #23 ranked conference and the MAC is #21.

Last year, they flummoxed BG with a packed-in match-uppy zone.  They will need that this year, because they are currently #357 (out of 364) in defensive efficiency.  They are #341 in defensive FG% and #346 in defending the 3FG. They have played at 67 possessions, which is pretty slow.  

Offensively, they are scoring at .99 points per possession, which is below average.  They are a decent shooting team, but turn the ball over a lot and get hardly any offensive rebounds. They are an excellent FT shooting team but don't get to the line very often.

Their leading scorer is Jack Karasinski, a 6'7" F who missed most of last season after a concussion.  He was at William & Mary then. He's scoring 18.3 PPG on 68% 2FG shooting and 50% 3FG shooting. That's in 25 minutes a game.

Ben Johnson was pre-season All-ASUN.  He's 6'3". He's averaging 12.6 PPG on 48% and 31% shooting.  He scored 20 against us last year.

Billy Smith is scoring 10.4 PPG on 64% 2FG shooting and 36% 3FG shooting.  He's 6'7" and started his career at Miami.  Had 16 in last year's game.

Their leading rebounder is Curt Hopf (5.4), he missed all of last season due to injury. Dylan Branson, who transferred from SEMO, leads them with a little over 3 assists per game.

BG will be favored in this one and I hope we are able to turn the tables from last year.  After this one, we next to return to action in Tempe, playing Weber State first.

Standings, Tiebreaker, Shrug

 

OK, so after last night, here is where things stand.

OU got a huge win beating a UT team that played a completely listless second half.  There was one call that went against them, and I get it, it can make a difference in football, but I felt like OU was better than them play after play.

Anyway, they are out.

A bunch of people were trying to figure out the tiebreakers for various scenarios.  I know @hustlebelt eventually concluded what I did, which is that it is borderline impossible to interpret some of the language in the tie breaker rules that the MAC published.

As @hustlebelt pointed out, this may be why the Big Ten took four days to figure out whether Oregon had clinched a berth in the title game.

My observation would be that the MAC hired the same people who write instructions for assembling furniture to write these tie-breaking guidelines. As an aside, @Hustlebelt and I should be hired next year and we will get it right.

So.  BG wins both or loses both and it is over.

The complicated part comes with a split.

If BG beats Ball State and loses to Miami, then for there to be a conversation at 6-2, Ohio would have to lose to Ball State and UB beat Kent.  Miami is in. If there was a tie for the second spot with OU, BG, and UB, I make BG and UB 4-0 among common opponents and OU 3-1 (loss to Ball State).  I can't take it any further...and I might have that wrong.

If BG lost to Ball State and beat Miami, and OU lost to Ball State and UB beat Kent, you have a 4-way tie with two slots.  I make it Miami and UB in the final, because BG and OU would have both lost to Ball State, now a common opponent and Miami and UB did not.

Hopefully, some better info will come out.  This exact process was why the MAC coaches in basketball wanted to get rid of double byes.  You are conferring big advantages on these minute tie-breakers.  I predict that controversy in major conferences on this matter will lead to conference semi-finals.

Falcons Get First D1 Win

After the game, Coach Simon said this was an important game for us and it was.  We had some tough games to start with and then we're on the road for a little while and this was a game with a not-great D1 team and we needed to put it away.

Which we did.

The first half did not go so great.  Five minutes in, BG was down 14-5.  With 10 minutes left, the Purple Eagles were still up 9.  BG went on an 11-2 run to tie it up with 6:50 left.  Niagara led for most of the remainder of the half, and led 37-33 at the break. BG led for :29 in the first half.

In the post-game, Coach said he asked the team kindly if they might not focus on playing defense in the second half, to which they kindly agreed (or words to that effect).

BG had the lead a minute-and-a-half in and led for the last 16 minutes of the game.  The decisive exchange came with about 9 minutes left.  BG was up 4.  They got a Butler 3FG, a stop, a Butler 2FG, a stop, a Butler 3FG, a stop, a Johnson 2FG, a stop and a Johnson 3FG and with 6:51 BG was up 17.

It was over at that point.  Win probability is 99%.  Niagara got it to 8 with :35 left, but BG was in control the rest of the way.

BG scored 43 points in the second half.  40 of them came from Towns, Johnson and Butler.

The game was played at 63 possessions, which is really slow.  BG had a great offensive game--1.21 points per possession, which they got to only twice last year in D1 games.  In the last 10 years, they have only lost twice when scoring at that pace. They held Niagara to 1.08, which is not a great defensive game, but good enough.  Also, BG was able to be that efficient while playing at NU's pace.

BG shot 64% for EFG, their second highest in the Simon era (Lipscomb).  That's 67% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG, both of which are scalding.  Niagara shot 53%, making 42% from 2FG and 41% from 3FG. 

BG had the advantage on turnovers, but had a strong disadvantage on offensive rebounding and a small one on FT Rate. NU made 10 of 14 and BG made 9 of 10 at the line.

BG had some stellar offensive performances.

First, Marcus Johnson.  He had 24 points....that's 8-9 on 2FG and 2-2 on 3FG and 2-2 at the line. Five rebounds and 3 assists to go with it.  He's on his way to being a national media darling.  Note that Coach Simon said after the game that he might be best at passing...called him an "elite" passer.

Derrick Butler had a similar game.  He was sick last week, which explains his low minute count in Lansing. He had 16 points on 4 of 5 2FG shooting, 2 of 2 on 3FG and 2-2 at the line. Add 3 rebounds and 3 assists.

And Sam Towns, had 16 on 4 of 7 2FG, 2 of 3 from 3FG, 2-2 at the line, 5 rebounds and 2 blocked shots.

That's 3 pure jet fuel offensive performances. Javonte Campbell only scored 5 and only had 3 shots for 2FG, but he's a strong defender and contributes either way.

Point being, BG has some weapons.  A good example is Sam Towns, who made 1 3FG last year and has 4 so far this year.  Coach says he has worked hard in the gym. Campbell didn't score, Khayat played only 15 minutes and Squier did not play at all.  BG has a lot of weapons...this was a team we were supposed to beat.  They will need to sharpen it up for tougher games in the conference, but if it comes together we have the potential of being really tough to play.

Next up is Bellarmine on Saturday from Louisville.  BG should be favored against the winless Knights who smoked BG in the Stroh last year for one of their 8 wins.

Purple Eagle Preview

The Niagara Purple Eagles are picked last in MAAC by Blue Ribbon.  Coaches have them 8th.  Kenpom had them second to last--13th--second to last, ahead of only Canisius.

They have made 3 NCAA tournament appearances, the last one in 2007. They made the Sweet Sixteen in 1970 with a team coached by legend Frank Leyden and led by Hall-of-Famer Calvin Murphy.

In the 1950s, they were regulars in the NIT when it was an important tournament.  Their early teams featured Larry Costello, who went on to be an NBA Champion as a player and coach and 2nd-team All-NBA and is in the Basketball Hall of Fame.

This is our 10th meeting, with Niagara leading the series 6-3.  BG won 2 out of 3 in the 1950s, but it has been tougher going since then. Niagara has won the last 4, the last of which was in 2010 at Calihan Hall in a hidden corner of some bigger tournament.

They are coached by Greg Paulus, remembered as a three-time all-ACC guard for Duke.  He was an assistant at Navy, OSU, Louisville and GW before getting the Niagara gig.  He is 68-80 in his sixth season.

They are 1-2, 0-2  in D1 play.  They lost by 36 @MSU and then lost in OT to Detroit (in Calihan Hall...whooaaaaa).

Like many teams, Niagara had a complete roster turnover from last year.

Niagara's kenpom is 333.  Detroit is 343.  BG is 252.

ESPN gives BG a 74% chance of winning and kempom gives BG a 77% chance.

Niagara is led by Olumide Adelodun, who actually played two years for OU before transferring to DII Winona and then came to Niagara.  He is 6'5", scores 16 PPG on 46% 3FG shooting and 4 RPG.  

Jahari Williamson is a G who transferred from Elon.  He is scoring 11 PPG on 50% 3FG shooting. 

Jadean Marshall is 6'4" and a transfer from Omaha.  He is scoring 10.3 PPG on a rough 38% shooting.

Josiah Davis leads the team with 11 assists.  He transferred from Tennessee Tech.

Their top rebounder is Justice Smith at 4.3 RPG. He's 6'6" and a transfer from East Tennesee State.

Past and Future Opponent Land

 Past and Future Opponent Land:

Fordham: (2-9)  Beat Georgetown

PSU:  (9-1) Beat Purdue

TX A&M: (7-2) Beat New Mexico State

ODU:  (4-6)  Lost to James Madison

Akron:  (2-7) #MACTION

NIU: (5-4) #MACTION

KSU:  (0-9) #MACTION

UT:  (6-3) #MACTION

CMU (3-6) #MACTION

WMU: (5-4) #MACTION

BSU (3-6): #MACTION

MU:  (5-4) #MACTION

Vs. P4   2-21

Vs. G5:  8-6

Vs:  FCS: 10-1

Michigan State Scores Last 18 Points to Win

Things were actually going pretty well for the Falcons.  Heading into the last media timeout of the first half, BG was up 12 points.  The last four minutes--my BG English professors taught me that this is foreshadowing--went 15-3 to MSU and it was tied at the half.

Even so, if I had told you we'd be tied at halftime, you'd have been OK with that.

BG came out hard in the second half and had an 8-point lead with 11 minutes left.   MSU had it tied with 9:35 left. BG led by 4 with 7:11 left.  The score was 72-68. The sad fact is that BG did not score again while MSU scored 18 points in that period (40-minute equivalent of 102).  

It was a disaster.  Coach said BG got a "little shot happy" and that's clear...they missed 6 3FGs in that period (40-minute equivalent of 34), some of them just rimming out and a decent number as open looks.  They also missed 2 2FGs, the front end of a 1-1, and had 3 turnovers.

MSU is a good team, it was on their floor, and the Falcons led for over 24 minutes but winning games like this is really hard for a reason.

The announcers mentioned that BG hadn't won a P5 game since 2005.  I went back and looked, that was a crazy win over Virginia Tech when there was a scramble at the rim at the buzzer and a VA Tech player tipped it into their own basket.  No replay in those days, and Dakich said after the game that his strategy was to get off the floor as fast as possible and "make them drag us out," an approach that worked out poorly in a buzzer-banging blizzard in Buffalo a while later.

Anyhow.

The game was played at 71 possessions, our slowest of the year.  BG had 1.02 points per possession, which is below the national average of 1.05.  The Falcons were outshot...their 61% on 2FG is excellent, but the 19% on 3FG is far from it....especially when 42% of your shots are from 3FG.  (Nationally, 40% of shots have been from 3FG this year). BG only shot worse from 3FG 3 times last year. Turnovers were close...MSU was dominant on the offensive boards, as expected, and made 28 of 32 FTs, while BG made 13 of 14.  Overall, BG was called for 26 fouls and MSU for 12.

Marcus Johnson had 23 points, but it took him 24 shots to get there. He was 8 of 13 from 2FG and 1-11 from 3FG.  Coach said after the game that we are asking a lot out of Marcus right now, and it was made worse with foul trouble.  He won't go 1-11 again, Coach said.  And he wasn't intended to play that many minutes.  He also led the team with 5 rebounds and had 4 turnovers.

Campbell had 14 points on 6 of 10 and 0 of 3 shooting.  He also had 4 turnovers and 2 steals.

Youssef Khayat on 3 of 5 2FG shooting and 7-7 at the line.

This is a team still very much trying to find combinations that work. Simon played 10 guys.

• Khayat 37
• Campbell 36
• Johnson 35
• Thomas 28
• Towns 26
• Green 11
• Felt 9
• Butler 8 (Down each game from 28 at Southern Miss)
• Humphrey 7
• Exacte 2
• Squire DNP

We played 19 lineups for the game.  I feel like there's a foundation with the starters--I am surprised that we haven't gotten more out of our depth. BG had 6 bench points and two players (Butler and Humphrey) had terrible +/- in limited minutes.

There is a long way to go. We can get our first D1 win on Tuesday against Niagara (#333), they lost to MSU by 36.  They are coached by Duke star Greg Paulus.