Sunday, November 19, 2023

25 Questions For the Season Ender

What is their body of work?

It has been 7 years since PJ Fleck rowed out of Kalamazoo. They are 41-39 since then, with 3 bowl appearances.  They had a former star as their coach and he was 8-5 and 5-7 in his last two years and was fired, showing a significant philosophical difference from Bowing Green. Lance Taylor has come in--he coached in the NFL and at Notre Dame and came after one year at Louisville.  They are 4-7 overall and 4-3 in the MAC.  In common opponent land, they also lost to UT, Miami and OU and also beat Ball State.  They lost their last game to NIU in a 24-0 shutout.  WMU has won two of the 3 games the teams have played since Babers left, including the final game of the Mike Jinks tenure.  BG beat WMU last year.  BG is a 1.5 point favorite.

How experienced are they?

They have 25 juniors and above on the two-deep, which is low.

Who are their national leaders?

None.

What is their turnover ratio? 

They are -+5 (All Games).

Offense

How is their QB play?  (MAC Games only unless noted)

They have started 3 QBs this year.  Hayden Wolff has taken all the snaps for the last 4.  He's an ODU transfer.  He is #6 in the MAC in pass efficiency, completing 65%, only 10.6 yards per reception and 5 TDs over 2 INT.  He's not too much of a dual-threat, but he does run.

What is their scoring and yards per play

They are 3rd in the MAC at 28 points per game.  They are 5th in yards per play--the difference comes from the turnover margin, much like BG.  BG is 5th and 7th.

Can they run the ball?

They are #5 in the MAC in rushing.  Their lead back, Jalen Buckley, averages 5.1 yards per carry (#10) and is #2 in rushing attempts in the conference.

Do they pass the ball?

Well, you can see above how they have been with Wolff at the helm. Kenneth Womack leads the MAC in receptions but only 8.7 per completion. 

How is their run/pass balance?

They run on 55% of their plays, which is a lot.  

Do they convert on 3rd Down, 

They are #9 at 34%

Do they score in Red Zone?

They are ok at 4.8 points per trip.

Do they protect the QB?

They have been sacked 6.5% of their passing attempts, which is typical.

Defense:

Topline: Scoring and yards per play

They are 10th in scoring defense and last in yards per play allowed.

Do they defend the run effectively?

No, in fact.  They are 11th in yards per carry allowed.

Can they be passed on?

They are last in pass efficiency defense. They allow 60% completions, which isn't terrible, with 12.7 yards per completion and 14 TDs over 6 INT.

Do they get off the field on 3rd down?

They are last, allowing 48%.

Do they defend in the red zone?

They are below average at 5 points per trip.

Do they pressure the QB?

Sacks on 6.5% of opponent passes, which is in the average range.

Special Teams:

Punting?

They are 10th in net punting. They have been blocked once and allowed a TD (all games).

Punt Return?

They have 6 returns for 52 yards.

Placekicking? 

All games, he is 8 of 14.  Long 49. He is 6-7 inside 40 and has not been blocked.

Kickoff? 

All games, opponents start on the 23.  No TDs.

Kickoff Return?

Not great, they start on the 23.  No TDs.

Intangible Miscellany

So, this is one of those games.  BG is going to a bowl game either way and WMU is not.  It's going to be rainy/snowy in Kzoo that day, but at least right now slowing up around game time.

So assuming that everyone comes to play, it is really hard to call.  We have no idea who will be out there for BG.  Stewart and Keith are game time decisions (per coach), Bazelak was injured in the UT game and who knows who else.  Coach says we are really banged up.

So, this should be a decent matchup.  BG has struggled on offense and WMU is not good on defense.  However, you have no idea who will be out there and BG is not deep.  I assume WMU is also banged up.

Clawson used to say this was a game to show "who loves football."

BG is coming off the gut punch loss in the rivalry game with nothing to play for.  It will be interesting to see if they show up.

1 comment :

Schadenfreude said...

I think they show up. They have a good chance to lock down the first winning season around here since 2015. We'll see.