BG Football Recap

 All right then.  Time to recap the 2022 football season and look ahead.

It was a crazy season--there was a ridiculous multi-overtime affair with Eastern Kentucky....surprise wins over Marshall and Toledo, a coach with blood clots that could cause a PE, and disastrous losses to Kent and UB...it was all over the map.

In the end, it was a 6-7/5-3 season, the best of what I expected when the season started. 

The dominant storyline inside all of this is the fate of our Coach. I think he needed six wins to stay and he got it, plus the rivalry win.  Also, the arrival of the new AD came pretty late to make a move in time for the December recruiting period.  Anyway, it is clear Loeffler will be back next year--either with the one year he still has on his deal or with an extension.

Neither of which is a great answer.

Here's the thing. Coach is under no illusions...he says we have moved the needle from really bad to "slightly above average." I'd say that's almost accurate.  At best, we were an average team this year.  The question is, what has to happen for us to be more than slightly above average next year, which is what we were promised in this rebuild.

I see all the comments about "we'll be lucky to win four games next year," which might be true, but it is also exactly what these same people said after last season.

The warning signs are there.  

BG was 5-3 in MAC play with a scoring deficit of 7 points per game.  UB had the same record and was +4.3. EMU was 5-3, and +.8. UT was 5-3, and +7. 

In other sports--see Bill James' Pythagorean Theory--teams with gaps like this between their wins and scoring often regress the next year.

Yards per game was less predictive.  BG, UB and EMU were all outgained by their opponents.

BG's 5 MAC games were won by 34 points.  Except for the CMU game, they were all within one score.  That's a warning sign too, especially when you had no close losses.

So, what has to happen for this team to win 8 games and compete for a MAC title.  I'm talking win the FCS game and one more MAC game.

Globally, BG has to play better and more consistently.  Those clanker games have to go away--and even deceptive 13-9 wins over WMU need to be improved.  BG played well in some games and played absolutely terribly in others.  That needs to be cleaned up.  There's a lot that will have to happen for us to take the next step.  Maybe a year of maturity does it, but then maybe a lot of your maturity walks out the door.  Either way, to be a championship team, BG needs to be much more consistent.

BG's offense has to get better.  BG was 11th in scoring offense.  BG scored 3 points less per game than they did the year before.  It's just not sustainable.

BG did it with the 4th best passing efficiency in the MAC.  As Coach has said, that's a high wire act and part of the unsustainability we all saw.  Matt McDonald showed what Coach always said he had.  He had a strong season, top 3-4 in the MAC in passing, played tough and injured.  And he did it with no running game to lean on.  BG was 11th in the MAC in rushing. 

Unpacking that, BG needs a strong QB for 2023...at least as good as McDonald and hopefully better.  Yes, Orth played well in the bowl game, but that was one game against a sub-par opponent.  I have no problem if Orth wins the job, but I agree with Coach that bringing in a QB through the portal is "as urgent as urgent can be."  BG needs a competition at QB--there is also Owen Bainbridge in the program.  Without strong QB play next year, the rebuild will not progress as hoped.  It's imperative.

Of course, the running game is critical.  Coach says we are going to run the ball, come hell or high water.  It will be easier said than done.  Yes, Stewart will be back and Loeffler is really high on Jaylen Jennings, a FR who did not play much this year.  However, running begins up front, and PFF says BG was 10th in run blocking.  Jakari Robinson will not be back, and he was among our better run blockers.  Even assuming everyone who played this year is back, they will need to take a significant step forward.  Coach pledges to do that in the Spring, so we shall see.

Or we need to continue to look to the portal.

As an aside, PFF had BG #8 in pass blocking.  Last year, BG was #11 in pass blocking and #12 in run blocking. As noted in my preview, the line was due to get better...but it was unreasonable to think they would be better than average and they were well below it.

So, a lot has to happen on offense for this team to be better and they just have to be.  The scenario looks like this:  Loeffler creates strong run blocking, ensures a high quality QB and then rides that QB, good WRs and a dynamic run game to 29-30 points per game.

That's not all.  On this average team, the defense was slightly below average.  BG was #8 in scoring defense, #9 against the rush and #9 against the pass.  BG had the best pass rush in the MAC, which helped to limit the damage.  BG was 11th in the MAC in tackling (PFF), which is no surprise to any observer.

BG's defense did improve.  They were 3 points per game better than the year before. But it will need to continue to improve.  For sure, Brooks, Taylor, Bacon, Brand, Ferguson and Haire will not be back...JB Brown is in the portal, along with Sheppard.  Others could follow.

Special teams are not too bad.  We had some good returners.  Sir ended up #7 in the MAC in net punting. Lawler made 80% of his FGs...he has one year left and also we recruited a HS kicker in the signing class.

The big question mark is who else from this team leaves.  With the portal, you almost start to wonder if these long-term rebuilds are feasible anymore.  You try to develop a player, but if he starts to shine he wants to move on.  And if you want a guy to develop on the bench, you're risking him moving on for playing time.  You start to wonder if you don't have to gird yourself for non-stop churn and work to bring guys out of the portal every year.

So, here is the thing.  I favor Loeffler staying.  The best thing for the program is for him to succeed.  He has gotten us to each step, as promised.  I do not, however, favor a long-term extension.  I know many disagree with me and I may be proven wrong.  Maybe the whole approach is out of step.  But I think it's the best thing for the program and I hope he gets it done next year.