BG MBB/Wright State Preview

So, tomorrow night we have two games at the same time....BG and the Rockets in football, and BG and Wright State in men's basketball.  Both away.  (The women play Wright State tonight at the Stroh).

Wright State is an interesting team.  Last year they won a play-in game to make the NCAA tourney.  They had Tanner Holden (20.1 PPG and 7.1 RPG) and Grant Basile (18.4 ppg and 8.5 rpg) and they both portaled out, the first to OSU and the second to VA Tech.

Despite this, they are #3 in pre-season poll and Blue Ribbon for the Horizon League, the #26 ranked conference.

FWIW, their Coach, Scott Nagy, said there was "zero concern" on replacing the scoring, but though that replacing the rebounding would be the challenge.  He felt they would be better on defense.

And he appears to be right. They lost to Davidson (110) in double OT in Dayton and won by 1 to Louisville (113)  @ the Yummy Place. Yes, Louisville is not good this year...but they'd be favored in the MAC or Horizon.

The first thing to recognize here is their coach, Scott Nagy.  This guy flat out gets it done.  He's won 65% of his games and 74% of his conference games.  He has 12 straight seasons with 18 wins or more and the 18 was in the COVID season when they went 18-7.  He has been in the NCAA tournament 5 times--three times at South Dakota State and twice at Wright State. Add 6 regular season titles to those 5 tournament titles. He has won the coach of the year award three times in the Horizon league.  He also has South Dakota State in the DII tournament 6 times in 7 years.

BG and Wright State are 8-8 in the series overall, WSU has won 3 of the last 4.  The last two have been blowouts...in 2015 WSU beat BG by 37, and in 2020 it was by 18.

Through two games this year, they are playing at a fast pace...in fact, faster than BG. Nagy was right, they are scoring...not where they did last year (1.06 per possession) but 1.0 per possession, a touch above national average. They are shooting also just a bit above the national average, take excellent care of the ball, and are #210 in offensive rebounding and #329 getting to the line. They are also poor FT shooters.

They shoot an NCAA average number of 3s, and are only 28% from 3FG.  They do make 53% of their 2FGs.

For those checking, early on BG's defense is #310 in the nation, with 2FG defense being a significant issue.

The Raiders are not great on defense and they were not last year, either.  They are #223 in the nation in defense.  They are easy to shoot on, especially on 2FGs...but they force turnovers, are great on their boards and have kept their opponents off the line.

Their leading scorer is Trey Calvin at 27 PPG, which is #6 in the nation. And he's efficient, at 45% and 36% shooting. He has also made all 6 of his FTs. He also has 9 assists over 3 TOs.  He's a 6'0" SR and has really burst from the shadows cast by the two guys who transferred.  His buzzer beater beat Louisville.

Their second leading scorer is Amari Davis, who was all-Horizon at Green Bay, went to Missouri, where he contributed off the bench and now he's at Wright State.  He's scoring 12 PPG a game, both on 41% shooting, and that's all 2FGs, no 3FGS.  He leads the team with 9 RPG, despite being 6'2".

Their other leading scorer is AJ Braun, a 6'9" SO.  He is scoring 10.5 PPG on 67% shooting (all 2FGs) and 6 RPG.

Blake Sisley, a SO C, is from Santa Claus, IN.

This is the best test to date, leading into games with St. Bonaventure and Notre Dame.  It will be interesting to see how the Falcons respond to this team.