Air Force MBB Preview

So, the whole thing starts Monday, at the Stroh, as the Air Force Falcons come in.

There has been a decent amount of Falcon on Falcon action, what with Notre Dame College and Fairmont State playing here. This is BG's first meeting with the D1 Falcons from Colorado.

Air Force has not played a MAC team since 2016.  They are 6-6 against MAC teams.

They have been in the NCAA Tournament 4 times, twice since BG has.  They have never won a game in the tourney.

They are coached by Joe Scott, in his second tenure at Air Force.  He has coached for 18 years, starting at Air Force, moving to his alma mater, Princeton (after John Thompson III), then to Denver, assistant stints at Holy Cross and Georgia and then back to Air Force.  He took Air Force to the NCAAs in his first stint.

They have had 9 straight losing seasons. They were 11-18 last year, finishing 9th in a really strong Mountain West. They lost 2 starters and have 7 newcomers, with a total roster of 20 guys. Of course, you can't transfer to Air Force. 15 of their players played at the Air Force Academy Prep School.

They were picked #11 in the MW poll.  Worth noting that the MW is the #9 ranked conference to start the season and the MAC is #18.

Offensively, the key thing to note is that they will play the famous Princeton offense...see more here, but it's a thing.

The first thing is that the offense looks to control the pace of the game, and that will bring a clash of styles.  Last year, AFA was #347 in possessions per game and BG was #7.

When looking at AFA last year, they were #343 in experience.  They had 10 FR on the roster.  So, Princeton or no, they struggled.

They were #334 in offensive efficiency.  They shot above average--especially from 2FG, which you would expect from the offense.  They shot a high proportion of 3FGs. 

They don't get many offensive rebounds, which is not too surprising since they are a tempo-focused, four-out attack.  They did, however, turn the ball over a lot, which you would not expect, and did not get to the line (kind of expected) but were #347 in FT shooting.

This system often produces defenses that rank high on traditional manners, but tempo-free is another issue.  They were #246 in the country in defensive efficiency. They defended the 3FG great and the 2FG poorly and did force turnovers.  They were not great on the defensive boards and give up a lot of FTs.

One other note on the stats. Their strength of schedule was #117 and BG's was #282.

Their leading scorer from last year is not back.  Their second leading scorer, at 10 a game, is Jake Heiderenner, on 50% and 38% shooting. Ethan Taylor was their #3 scorer, #1 rebounder and #1 assist man is back as well. 

So, the questions here are:

How much better is Air Force's young team than they were last year?

Has BG's defense improved enough to bring forward the disciplined, full-shot clock focus it will take to defend this team?

Can BG's offense take care of the ball (as they are typically decent at) and then get to the basket and not rely only on 3FGs against a team that will defend them well?