Falcon MBB Plays Better But Not Good Enough, Loses

BG certainly played a more energetic and active game and played better defense than they have been, but it wasn't good enough to win.  More in a minute, but BG now has a very difficult road to Cleveland and the season is likely to end at Savage on a Friday night.

It was a highly entertaining game.  There were 12 ties and 18 lead changes.  There were 8 ties and 8 lead changes in the 2nd half alone.  No team had a run more than 8 and no one led by 10 points at any time. BSU had the better of it, leading for 23 minutes to BG's 10.

With 2:48 left, BG was up 1.  Sadly, the story is bad from there.

Tyler Cochran made a lay up and then BG turned it over and Baumbalough, who had been cold all night, nailed a 3FG and BSU was up 4 with 1:57 left.  Win probably shifts from 40% to 80% in one minute. Curtis drove to the paint and missed, got his own rebound and scored to make it a 2-point lead again. 

Tyler Cochran was fouled and split the pair to make it a 3-point lead with 1:17 left.

Here was the key possession. BG had 3 shots at the basket and failed to score, leaving BSU with a rebound and foul with :45 left.  BG failed to score the rest of the way and BSU made all 6 FTs.  The whole thing ends with a 12-2 BSU run to put the game away in the last 2 minutes.

The final was 91-82 but the game was played at a very high pace, 84 possessions, so those numbers don't reflect incredible numbers.  BG has played over 80 possessions in the last two games, which is the only time this year they have played D1 opposition at that pace. Going back, you have to go to 2019 before there's another MAC game over 80 possessions.

In fact, BG had a poor offensive night at .97 points per possession.  They shot poorly, had an average number of turnovers, and did not get to the boards.  They did get FTs and made 70%. BG made 57% on 2FGs, the best since the WMU game.  BG also shot 20% from 3FG, their worst since the EMU game.

Meanwhile, they gave up 1.08 points per possession, which is better than it has been but still a tough number to win with.  BSU out shot them, making 49% from 2 FG and 39% from 3FG.  All three numbers are right around average.  Turnovers were pretty even, BSU had better offensive rebounding and had a better day at the line, helped by those 6 last minute FTs.   Ball State made 81% at the FT line.

 

Samari Curtis led BG's scoring with 18.  He shot 5 of 8 from 2FG and 1 of 5 from 3FG.  He added 6 assists and 5 turnovers. Plowden had 17 on 5 of 12 and 0 of 4 shooting and 6 rebounds.  Matiss had a really nice game, with 17 points in 19 minutes, on 6 of 7 and 1 of 2 shooting and 4 rebounds. Cam Young had 10 points, with 2 3FGs and 5 rebounds in 15 minutes.

So, it's rough.  

BG is 5-11 with four games left.  That includes @UA, WMU, OU, @UT.  Not hard to see that working out with 1 win and a 6-14 finish.  

There are 7 teams in the conversation for the 6-8 seeds.  BG is one of them.  Of the other 6, BG needs to be better than 4 of them to make the tournament. At 6-14, they don't catch Ball State and with one Miami win they don't catch Miami....who plays CMU twice and EMU at home in their last five games.

Knowing that, BG needs to finish ahead of CMU, NIU, EMU and WMU. NIU has 5 wins but probably end up with 6 and BG has the tie-breaker. CMU has 5 wins and plays Miami twice.  Win one of those and they ace BG out.  Tie-breaker will not apply because CMU is only playing 19 games, so there will be no tie.  EMU has 4 wins and 4 remaining games, but plays NIU and WMU and could get to 6 but BG would have tie-breaker.

If BG wins only the WMU game coming home, it is hard to see them making the tournament.  Most likely, they finish ahead of WMU, EMU and NIU but behind CMU.

If BG wins 2, that all looks a lot better, but it also doesn't seem too likely.  Anything could happen.