Oh, how sweet the victory was

There's no better way to stop the bleeding than a win over Toledo.  No way at all.  It's just one blip, I know, it needs to be sustained, but for today, for the pure fist-pumping joy of it...there's nothing better than beating Toledo.

Interesting how those dopey Rumpus dudes are pandemic-eligible.  I wonder if they are getting regularly tested.

It was the first quality performance--by that I mean performance you can envision winning a title with--in weeks.  The second Buffalo win was almost a month ago, but BG's offense in that one would be tough to win regularly with.  I think you have to think about everything before January 9.

BG led the game for 27 minutes.  UT only for 8.  This is the top team in the MAC, the top kenpom, etc.  And undefeated at home.  Also kicked BG's ass a couple weeks ago and a Rocket team rubbing their hands with glee for this one.

Not so much.

Leading for 27 minutes in that scenario is what you expect out of a championship team.

The first half was tight.  BG led by at most 7 and UT at most 4.  There were 7 lead changes.  It was highly competitive.

BG led by 4 at the half and got up 9 2 minutes into the half.  Then, UT did what you expect...they tightened up and went on a 5-minute, 12-1 to take a 2-point lead.

At this point, you're at the point of maximum danger.  You're on a six-game losing streak, you have a freight training running at you.  This could easily go the wrong way.  Or you can be the team we think we have and you can punch back.

Bowling Green did the latter.

From 52-50 for UT with 13 left, BG went on a 21-3 run to hold a 16-point lead with about six minutes left.  That streak runs through two media timeouts.  

BG had an 18% chance of winning at the beginning of the run and 96% at the end.  That's the definition of high leverage.  

Won't lie, it didn't feel like 96% to me, but that's just what happens when you are emotionally invested.  Plus, we can remember other teams closing games out better than us during the streak.  The game could...not...end...soon...enough.

Marreon Jackson started hitting threes from unbelievable range (like he did in a similar situation last year) and the lead melted.  UT was applying pressure and BG was struggling to handle it.  They turned it over once or twice and it put chaos in the operation.  It did get fixed as it went on.  Still, UT chipped away and had the lead to 6 with 1:30 left.

No doubt, you should always close that game out.  The game could...not...end...soon...enough.

Things got even a little better when Plowden hit 2 FTs to go up 8 with 1:13 left.  Jackson missed a 3FG and Turner split the FTs and it was 9 with :43.

Still pacing across the floor.

UT misses, get an offensive board and makes a 3FG to make it 6 with :30 left.  UT plays for the turnover first, so Diggs didn't get fouled until there was :22 left.  Normally (like Turner) very reliable at the line, Diggs split the pair and it was a 7-point lead.

BG conceded a layup to Jackson to make it 5 with :14 left.  They fouled Fulcher, who is a poor FT shooter.  I assume in this situation that Fields would generally be out there, but he only played 10 minutes due (I assume) to the lingering effects of the injury that caused him to miss a game recently.  Fulcher had a chance to ice it but missed them both and UT came down, had a couple open looks but missed them, Plowden added 2 FTs late and that was it, an 88-81 win.

During that last sequence, the announcers were freaking out like it was a potential buzzer-beater but even making a 3 only gets the game to one possession with single digits left to play.

It was a perfect close out for BG.  They missed four FTs in the last minute, including two by their best FT shooters.  A time (we hope) will come when that will really matter.  And Coach runs clock way sooner than I would recommend...but listen, there's one person paid to coach basketball and one who paces in front of the TV for free.

Because sports makes him happy.

Anyway, the key element was shooting.  BG made 51% from 2FG and 53% from 3FG.  That's the best shooting in a MAC game this year.  We haven't shot that well and lost a MAC game since the UB game at the end of 2016 (Huger Year 1.  We also shot this well and lost to St. John's).  

That and a really good turnover game (10.6%) made for a 1.16 points per possession, a very solid performance.  The pace itself was 76 possessions, with a MAC average of 70.8.

On the other side, UT shot poorly.  Their second poor shooting game in a row, though not as bad as Ball State.  They shot 59% from 2FG (obviously really good) but only 29% from 3FG and that 3s were 54% of the overall attempts, their highest in a MAC game this year.  It is the higher % of 3FGs attempted against BG in a MAC game since Miami in 2019.

So, you try that many of your shots from 3FG and do it poorly, you will have a hard time winning.  Honestly, they missed open looks but I thought BG played stronger defense as well.  There were still probably too many open looks.  Their turnovers were not terrible--although a few lost possessions to BG.  They still had 1.07 points per possessions, which is above MAC average.

The other difference was FTs.  On all FGS, BG was +1 point.  BG was 16 of 22 at the line and UT was 10 of 11.  The Rockets started fouling early with their pressure defense.

Daeqwon Plowden had a night.  UT pays a lot of attention to Turner, daring someone else to beat them, which yesterday happened.  Plowden had 22 points, making 5-5 from 2FG and 2 of 5 from 3FG.  He made all 6 FTs, and 9 rebounds.  Turner had 21, but he had to work for it.  That's 3 of 14 from 2fG and 3 of 4 from 3FG.  Mix in 6-8 at the line and 5 rebounds.  

Trey Diggs had 17.  That's 2 of 2 from 2 FG, 3 of 7 from 3FG, 4 of 6 at the line and 4 rebounds. He's put together 2 straight strong shooting games.

Kaden Matheny had 14.  That's 4 of 6 from 2FG and 2 of 6 from 3FG.  Also 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals over 1 turnover.  His measurables have been a little inconsistent, but remember he's just a freshman.  Think he's going to be a stud.

Fulcher had 10 points on 5 of 8 2FG and 0 of 1 3FG shooting.  Add 4 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 turnover.

Let's stop and appreciate Marreon Jackson.  Man, honestly, he's amazing.  He had 27 points on 5 of 6 and 4 of 11 shooting.  He made all 5 FTs, added 14 rebounds, 8 assists and 3 turnovers.  His last games against BG are 27, 15, 31 and 27.  Oof.

So, finally the streak ends.  We're not out of the woods.  We need to string together good games to get things back on track.  I think this model is what we are going to need.  A number of you have commented to me that we are not set up to play good man defense.  Seems to be true, which means we need to score to win.  I also think we've felt that we were underperforming on offense.  If that's true and we can score consistently, we can win.  If this was an outlier, we won't.