BG MBB WMU Preview

 Well, two teams heading on the wrong path will meet tomorrow at the Stroh.  Somebody will take a step in the right direction--either BG, loser of 5 of 6 or WMU, loser of 7 straight.

Yeah.

So, after a long string of success in MBB, WMU has fallen on hard times.  They are set for their 3rd straight losing season.  They got rid of Steve Hawkins last year and then found themselves hamstrung for their coaching search.  They hired Clayton Bates, who was an assistant there.  They were expecting to have all their starters back last year, but then Michael Flower and Brandon Johnson, the two leading scorers, transferred.  Flowers went to South Alabama and Johnson went Minnesota.

It's been a rough year.  They have 1 D1 win...a 15 point win over CMU.  They have lost their next 7 in the conference, all of them by 10 points or more.  It's just a tough year.

Even as BG is struggling, they are clear favorites in this game.  Kenpom has us at an 84% chance of winning.  That's a little hard to believe given what they have seen...but it magnifies the point...this is a win BG needs to get.

WMU really struggles to score.  They are 11th in the MAC in scoring and 9th in defense.  As you can see, if BG gets their average scoring, WMU would need a total they have only gotten once this year--and that was their one win.

WMU is in the middle of the pack in shooting in the MAC.  They don't do anything else well.  They are 11th in turning the ball over and last in offensive rebounding and getting to the line.  They are 11th in making 3FGs, 5th from 2FG and 9th at the FT line.  They are 9th in the MAC in attempting 3FGs, which is kind of the style they have always played.  58% of their points are 2FGs. BG has especially struggled on the defensive boards and in giving up FTs, so if you see those things start happening, you'll know we have a problem.  Or if WMU starts making 3FGs.

Defensively, WMU is average defending the shot but last in forcing turnovers.  They are pretty good on the defensive boards and keeping opponents off the line and they are #5 at defending the 3FG.  It isn't a gimmee that BG will score without a better offensive approach.

Two Broncos score in double figures.  The leading scorer is Greg Lee, a graduate transfer from Cal-Bakersfield.  He's 6'9" and scoring 13.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG.  He shoots 55% from the field, so he's pretty efficient.  B. Artis White is scoring 12.9 PPG but on 41% shooting overall and 32% from 3FG.  Their 4th leading scorer, Rafael Cruz, has not played in 3 games.

So, this is a game that BG really needs to win.  The schedule is going to be pretty tough from here on in and BG isn't going to have much better of a chance to get back on track.