MAC MBB...here we go! OU Preview...

 And so it begins.  We don't know what's going to happen or how it will unfold...already the schedule had changed twice.  In the NFL, teams are taking the field severely shorthanded and playing critical games.  It's not going to be a simple 20-game march to Cleveland...if that happens.  

Whatever it is, it will start tomorrow.  BG was expecting to play Kent, a game already moved up on the original schedule to make sure there's flexibility at the end to accomodate any re-scheduled games.  That's not happening, instead, a late season game with OU has been moved up to tomorrow, at the Convo.

OU is 4-3, 3-3 in D1 play and 0-1 in the MAC.  Their highlights are a 2-point loss to #7 Illinois and a 55-point win over Cleveland State that featured a 40-0 run.  They lost at a good Marshall team by 14 (UT won @Marshall, for reference) and they were skunked by Akron in their MAC opener.  I watched that game...Akron is good once again.  Seemed like they made every shot they took.

OU was picked to be second in the MAC.  Last season, BG swept the series, winning by 9 at the Convo and 1 at the Stroh...courtesy of a Justin Turner buzzer beater.

Let's look at the numbers.  These are raw numbers from kenpom, not adjusted for schedule.  As you can see, both teams are scoring effectively.  OU is #48 in raw offensive efficiency and BG is #52.  Flipping it around though, OU is showing good defense whereas BG's defense is considerably below average.  We still have small sample issues...half of OU's numbers are from that Cleveland State game, Chicago State  (worst team in D1, already called their season off) and North Carolina A&T, #316.

OU held Illinois to 1.05 points per possession but in their most comparable games (Marshall and Akron), they were well below an average defense.

All that to say that we're probably looking at a "high scoring affair."  

OU is a really good shooting team.  They are #33 in the country (see sample sizes issues above...they shot below 50% against Marshall and Akron.)  They are making 37% of their 3FGs.  As you can see, they take average care of the ball, are good on the offensive boards and have gotten to the line, though they are a poor FT shooting team.

Flipping it around...BG is shooting just above the D1 average, which is just where OU is defending.  There's a gap on turnovers--BG takes good care of the ball and OU does tend to force some turnovers.  The other issues are similar.  BG gets to the line and is #19 in the country in FT shooting.

OU is lead by three key players.  The first is Jason Preston, who was all-FR in the MAC, second-team all-MAC last year and first-team pre-season All-MAC this year.  He scores 19 PPG on 60% 2FG shooting and 48% 3FG shooting.  He is the #113 shooter in the country.  Add 6 RPG and 7 APG to that and you have a well-rounded player.

The second is Ben Vander Plas.  He's scoring 12 PPG on 59% 2FG shooting and 31% 3FG shooting. Add 5 RPG and 3 APG. He was once MAC Freshman of the Year, he was third-team All-MAC last year and second-team pre-season this year.  He scored 25 against BG in the game at the Convo last season.

There's a new player that is contributing, too.  Dwight Wilson III is a transfer from James Madison who is scoring 14.9 PPG and grabbing 9.1 RPG, shooting 59%.  He's 6'8".

So here we go.  This is a big test for BG, but honestly, the MAC is a grind every week.  One of the things that will be interesting to see is how the home court advantage plays out in COVID-times.  Right now, in MAC games, home teams are just 50% but that's only from 8 games.  The Big Ten, with 19 games, is at 68%.