MAC MBB Starts/Buffalo Preview

 Well, BG starts MAC play today against the Buffalo Bulls.  Very dizzying how quickly this has all happened...usually there's a whole pre-season overture to the season, but in a few hours we are playing with live ammo.  

We'll start our preview with where the Falcons are.  I think it's fair to say that there are a lot of open questions right now.  Probably the same can be said for other teams, but I do not think we have performed like the pre-season favorites in our conference yet this year.  In both the South Carolina State and Purdue NW games we were eventually good enough but allowed those teams to score on us and stay with us into the second half.  The App. State game is a nice win, but I'm not sure that was a championship performance and Michigan was what you'd expect.  They beat us by 14 and then later Ball State by 19.

There have been some surprises.  I think we thought PG was going to be Zeigler-Metheney, and it has been the other way around.  In fact, Zeigler is playing single-digit minutes.  Matiss has been injured. 

Defensively, teams are just making too many shots against BG.  They are giving up 49.5% on 2FG--worse than last year--and 40.4% on 3FG, way worse than last year (33%).  The D1 averages are 49.2% on 2FG and 32.6% on 3FG, for reference.  Overall, BG's FG defense is 250th in the country, D1 games only and obviously at a very early date.

But it will need to get sorted out.  BG can score and I'm not sure they have to have the world's greatest defense.  On the other hand, they do need stops to move in transition, where it seems like they are more effective.

And pray no one plays a zone.

Buffalo comes in as the MAC's most dominant team over the last few years.  The 2019 team that beat BG in the MAC Final and won a game in the tourney was historically good at 32-4.  Their coach left and they lost a bunch of guys, plus a top-rated group of JUCO recruits, and they still went 20-12 and 11-7 before they lost at home in the first round of the MAC tournament to Miami, the #12 seed.

BG and UB split two highly competitive games last year, each winning on the road.

From that team, they lost their 3rd and 5th leading scorers.  They return Jayvon Graves, who was first-team All-MAC preseason, and Josh Mballa, who was on the second team.  Also, Jeenathan Williams is back and he's their leading scorer to date.  They were picked to be #4 in the MAC.

They've only played twice.  Their opener against Canisius was canceled for COVID and then they beat Towson and lost to Army on a neutral floor.  The Army loss is clearly not good....they lost to Army last year, too.  Josh Mballa was DNP in that game, no idea why and what his status is for today's game.  That was 8 days ago.

Buffalo plays fast.  Last year they had the #8 ranked pace in the country, and this year it is up but #28 in the nation.  They go at 75 possessions a game and BG is at 73.8, so this will be an up and down game.

FWIW, and it probably doesn't mean much, UB has allowed only 17% on 3FGs on defense this year, literally half the D1 average.  I'm calling small sample size.

Anyway, this should be a very competitive game.  The Falcons have high expectations--after being picked to win for the 2nd straight season--and this is one of 20 games you gotta have.  It's not make or break...lots of time...but a really good early indicator.