BG MBB Wins MAC Road Opener

You're happy to get any road victory you can get in MAC play.  As I said before, we don't know how precious road victories will be, given the COVIDArena, but we will still take them any time we can get them.

BG caught a huge break without knowing it during an OU practice before this.  Jason Preston, one of the top players in the MAC so far this year was injured during practice and did not play.  Obviously, this makes them easier to beat--it didn't feel that way for a while, but there's no way they are as good without Preston as they are with him.

OU came out of the gate hard, motivated to win despite losing their best player.  They led 19-7 with 12 to go in the first half.  BG would peck away at the lead, but whenever they did OU would punch it back up again.  They led by 10+ at the 9-minute mark, the 3-minute mark and at the half.

With about a minute left they were up by 13.  BG had a 6% win probability at that point, according to KenPom.  That's the 45th lowest win probability a team has had and gone on to win this year.  (NIU's epic collapse in November against UIC is the year's worst....at one point, UIC had a .7% chance of winning.)

Anyway, BG came out with improved defense in the 2nd half.  It didn't change immediately.  The lead was still 10 with 14 minutes left in the game.  Finally, the Falcons got their traction.  Over the next 5 minutes, BG went on an 18-7 run to tie the game.  From there, it was a tight, entertaining one-possession game until the final sequence.

With 4 minutes left, Wilson scored to put OU up 2 at 74-72.  Mark that.

BG game down and Josiah Fulcher hit Diggs for a layup and the game was tied at 74.  BG got a stop and Diggs cleared the board.  The Falcons ran a tough sequence on offense, but Juice bailed them out, getting fouled in the paint and nailing both FTs.  With 2:43 left, BG was up 2.

OU turned the ball over and Juice hit Mektheny for a layup and BG was up 4 with 2:23 left.

OU turned the ball over again.  Next was what might have been the game's key possession.  BG had a possession with two offensive rebounds (the OU play by play doesn't make sense at this point, but they were struggling all day) and Turner was fouled with :55 left.  And made both FTs.  Anytime you can run 50%+ of the game off and then score is a dream scenario.

So, up 6 with less than a minute left.  At this point, we have a 94.7% chance of winning.

Vander Plas was fouled in a rebound melee and split his FTs.  With :28 left, Metheny was fouled and split his FTs.  Still up 6.  (Up to 99%).

BG got a last stop, Diggs cleared the board and made both the FTs and that was it, 83-75 victory for the Falcons.

I have always talked about those Dambrot Akron teams that were just ruthless in the last 4 minutes.  BG had that kind of performance.  In the last 4 minutes of the game, BG outscored OU 11-1.  That's how you close a game out on the road.

BG scored 51 points in the 2nd half and held OU to 33...both winning numbers.

The game was played at 68 possessions, which is slower than typical for BG.  Still, BG had 1.21 points per possession, which is outstanding.  That's two games in a row above 1.2.  BG topped that only three times all of last season--OU and both UT games.

Defense was not great.  BG allowed 1.1 points per possession. Interestingly, last year BG was 4-2 in games where they allowed 1.1 points per possession because they tended to be the games where they also had a big offensive night.  FWIW, BG held OU to 1 point per possession in the 2nd half, which is about the D1 average.

So look at the chart below?  What was the key part of the game, LOL.

Yes, BG won this game at the free throw line.  OU committed 23 fouls that led to a staggering 38 FT attempts for the Falcons.  And BG made 36 of them. Meanwhile, BG committed 17 fouls and OU shot only 12 FTs and made 9.  I doubt if any team in recent memory has been +29 at the line and lost a game.

A few things.  Plowden was fouled 5 times, Swingle 4 times and Turner...8 times.  And, by virtue of getting 1.7 foul shots for every OU foul, I'm assuming those were mostly shooting fouls.  Which means when BG was getting open shots, they were getting fouled...which has to impact overall shooting percentage.

Anyway, BG made them pay for that strategy.  

Here's what BGSU said about the free throws in a historic context.

It was a historic day at the free throw line for the Falcons, as BGSU came one make shy of setting a new school record. The Falcons went 36-of-38 (94.7 percent) from the charity stripe. The school record was set in a 2006 game versus Kent State, as BG went 34-of-35 (97.1 percent) from the free throw line.

The 36 free-throw makes are the most in a single game for Bowling Green since making 37 in a MAC Tournament win at Ball State on March 10, 2003. Incredibly, BG's 38 free-throw attempts are the most in a single game since its last MAC game, on Dec. 6, versus Buffalo. BGSU went 31-of-40 (77.5 percent) from the free throw line in the MAC opener.

BG is number 8 in the country in FT shooting at 81%.  They don't lead the MAC...Akron is at 82.4%,

Trey Diggs led the way for BG.  He made 3s when BG was struggling offensively in the first half and he was rock solid for the whole game.  He scored 20 points, shot 4 of 8 from 3FG, made all 6 FTs, had 7 rebounds and 2 steals in 25 minutes.  If that might interest you.

Kaden Metheny had 16.  He's a gamer.  He shot 2 of 4 from 2FG and from 3FG, 6-7 at the line and 8 rebounds.  He's an interesting PG in that he seems to be effective and yet has 8 assists in 8 games.  He had none yesterday.  He has 14 turnovers, which isn't terrible given being a FR and the minutes he is playing.  Turner is actually the one creating opportunities, with over 5 assists per game, #3 in the MAC and #55 in the country.

Justin Turner had 15 points, 9 of them at the line.  He added 5 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 turnovers.

Plowden had 11 with 9 FTs and 1 FG.  Also, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 turnovers.

And Dylan Swingle got rolling.  Literally, as BG was able to get the roll action of the ball screen going.  This would surely be nice moving forward as teams are hedging Turner hard off the screens and you'd think this would be open.  Swingle had 14 on 4 of 6 shooting, made all 6 FTs and 4 rebounds in 26 minutes.  We were +13 with him on the floor.

Last thing...Josiah Fulcher also contributed.  He played 20 minutes with 3 rebounds and 2 assists, including one that was part of the key sequence that won the game.

Last thing for real.  Davin Zeigler was DNP for the second straight game.  No idea why.

BG beat a team without their best player.  We didn't lose to a team without their best player.

No time to rest. BG heads to NIU on Saturday for a should win.  More later.