UB Preview

On and on it goes.  BG will reach the half-way point of the MAC season at Buffalo on ESPNU Friday night.

The last time we saw the Bulls, we were in the Q.  The Bulls were celebrating--as well they should have.  They were on their way to the Big Dance for the fourth time in five years, where they would be a #6 seed, the highest for a MAC team in the 64-team era.

On the other side, BG had nearly broken its 50+ year tournament drought.  Nearly.

BG had almost everyone return from that night.  Not so, the UB Bulls.  First, Nate Oats, two-time Coach of the Year, headed to Alabama.  Then, as expected, they lost:

CJ Massinburg, MAC POY

Dontay Caruthers, the MAC Defensive POY

Nick Perkins, MAC 6-man of the year

Jeremy Harris, MAC Tournament MVP

Montrel McRae, started every game.

That's 72% of their scoring.  They had a highly prized set of JUCO recruits coming in to reload, but those guys flew the coop after Oats left.  After searching for a while, they named Jim Whitesell, an Oats assistant and former Loyola IL coach, to the head job.

They return both of their starting guards, and then had two players who were sitting out at transfers.

They are 14-7 this year.  They won @DePaul and at home over St. Bonaventure, but they also lost at home to Army and at Vanderbilt.  They are #139 in kenpom.

They are 5-3 in the MAC.  They are 2-2 at home, beating WMU and OU and losing to NIU and Kent.  They are 3-1 on the road, beating Miami, CMU and Akron, the last two representing a pretty big win.

UB has won 11 of the last 12 against BG, with the win being last year's thriller at the Stroh.  BG's last win in Buffalo was in 2011 in OT.

Here's the thing.  This isn't the UB team we saw over the past five years, but they are still a solid team and in this year's MAC they are capable of winning the tournament.

They are #6 in the MAC in offense and defense.  Meahwhile, BG is #5 in offense and #8 in defense.  This has the makings of a pretty decent game on both sides of the ball.

First, UB plays at a MAC-highest 74 possessions per game.  BG has been battling with some of the slower-paced teams in the MAC, so it will be interesting to see if they can adapt to a running game, which they claim to be more their speed.

UB's shooting overall is #8 in the MAC.  However, they take good care of the ball...and BG creates a league-worst turnover rate...and UB leads the MAC in offensive rebounding.   That should be intersting, as BG is #2 on its own defensive boards.  UB is last getting to the FT line and 8th in FT shooting.  BG gives up a lot of FTs.

UB makes 51% of the 2FGs, which is 3rd in the MAC.  They make 30% of their 3FGs, which is 11th.  These numbers are similar to Ball State, but UB seems to compensate with a 2FG-heavy shot mix.

On other side, BG has the same story they have all year.  BG is 9th in shooting in the MAC.  If they started to make shots, they'd be dangerous.  The Bulls are 5th in the MAC in defending the 3FG.

But BG takes great care of the ball--UB is 6th at forcing  them, that should be intersting.  UB is good on the defensive boards and they don't give up FTs.  

They have four double figure scorers.  Jayvon Graves is scoring a very rough 15 PPG, shooting 38% and 27%.  He's a returning starter from last year's club.  Jeenathan Williams--a FR reserve last year--scored 14 PPG, shooting 44% and 27%, which is also not great.  Antwain Johnson, a Sr. transfer from Middle Tennessee State who sat out last year is scoring is scoring 11.6 PPG on 49% and 29% 3FG.  Returning starter Davonta Jordan is scoring 10.6 on 41% and 26% shooting and 5.4 assists per game, 3rd in the MAC.

Their big man was Josh Mballa, a Texas Tech transfer who played against UB in the NCAAs last year and was immediately eligible this year.  He's scoring 9.4 with 9.8 RPG and 54% shooting.

And on we go.