The Hated Rockets

We're back.  Another huge, sold-out game at the Stroh, the Rockets and the Falcons hooking up with both teams on upswing.  UT has dominated the series of late....8 of the last 9 and the one win being BG's double-ot thriller at the Stroh a couple years ago.  Last year, UT beat BG by 26 at Savage in a game that could actually have been way worse.

UT comes in at 19-4.  They are 7-3 in the MAC, but have won 7 of their last 8.  This is a really good team that had a strong pre-MAC season, then stumbled by losing their first 2 MAC games before putting this 8 game run together.  I say stumbled, but they lost to Ball State at home (a stumble in retrospect) but the second was a loss @UB, which was a stumble only because it was a 30-point margin.

The interesting thing is that their pre-MAC schedule was not tough, but they did beat people solidly.  There's only one non-D1 team in that 19 wins.  These guys can play and they are playing well right now.  This one should be another thriller.

The Rockets play at the #7 pace in the MAC, so pretty much on the average.  Their numbers are a little unusual.  The are #6 in offense and #4 in defense, but now above average in both areas.  Typically, they are a higher-scoring team.  (Last year they led the MAC in offensive efficiency.).  Their scoring has been up since those two losses, but nothing too great and they actually gutted out their Akron win on a poor night.

On defense, however, they are better than normal.  Last year they were 8th in defense, for example.

FWIW, those are unusual numbers for a 7-3 team.  So here's the thing.  BG is #2 in offense and #3 in defense and higher than UT on both sides of the ball.  I said that I didn't think BG could outscore UB and I was wrong, so I won't say it again.

So here's how UT gets the #6 offense in the MAC.  They are OK shooting (#6) but they take excellent care of the ball.  They don't do much on the offensive boards and its crazy how little they get to the line....that's #12.  They do make them....they are #2 in FT%.  They are a balanced shooting team.  They are #5 in 2FG% and #5 in 3FG%.  They take a good number of 3FG's---42% of their total FGs, which is #4 in the MAC.

I'd put the key battle on turnovers.  BG is #3 in defensive turnovers and #1 in the MAC in steals.  BG can impact their offense most by forcing more turnovers than they are used to while holding their shooting somewhere around where it is currently, which is good but not great.

Flipping it around, things are going to be interesting.  UT is the #1 defense in the MAC against the shot, and BG is third in EFG%.  That's going to be a real battle.  UT is last in forcing turnovers, but is great on the boards and doesn't give up FTs.  

On the shooting, UT leads the MAC in 2FG defense and BG is last in making 2FGs, so I'd guess the key to winning for BG will be the 3FG, as it pretty much has been.  UT is 8th defending the 3FG, and has faced a below average number of overall attempts, so a more 3-rich FG mix for BG might shake things up a little.

UT is led by Jaelan Sanford, who's down a bit in MAC play, scoring 13.4 on 38% and 28% shooting.  Luke Knapke is also scoring 13 PPG, shooting 61% and 39%, which is pretty efficient.  He also averages 7.5 RPG.  Marreon Jackson (all-FR last year) is also scoring 13 PPG, but on 43% and 38% shooting.  He leads the team with 4.6 assists per game.  Nate Navigato is also struggling a little at 11 PPG with with 42% and 36% shooting.  Willie Jackson (Missouri transfer) leads the team with 8.9 RPG.

So that's the tale of the tape.  I expect a good one.  If BG plays the game it played against UB--especially the shooting--they can win this one, but I expect a thriller.