Season Reset

So this is where we stand with 6 games left.

I don't really care for this phrase, but BG's destiny is in its own hands.  That includes everything...finishing first, second, or in the top 4.  BG needs no help, but will get it just by the vagaries of the schedule.

So, let's look at a few things.

Overlaying it all is that BG's next four games are a nice little streak.  Three of the four are at home and the away game is @OU.  Honestly, BG can and should lock the bye up before the Akron game.

BG is in first place with the UB tiebreaker.  We play them again at their place, which is obviously a tough assignment, but that could be what's needed.  Buffalo plays four of their last 6 at home and the road games are at @Miami and @OU.  They could easily win out from here until the finale.  Probably would be expected to.

Beyond that, BG has a 2-game lead over UT and Kent for #2.  We play Kent at the Stroh, so we have some ability to control that.  We lose the tie-breaker to UT, who also have a relatively easy schedule coming home.

We all know there's no intrinsic advantage in finishing 2nd-4th, except for a slight difference in possible semi-final opponents, but given the logjam in the middle I'd suggest that's all pretty equal too.  You'd prefer to arrange it to play Kent in the semis if you could, but winning the tournament is going to require at least 2 super-strong efforts any way you slice it and you can't really avoid it.  Also, you have to win a quarter-final game.  It's hard.  That's how it is supposed to be.  When that's your only route to a bid, it's brutal.

As for finishing in 4th, BG basically needs to eliminate 8 teams.  BG cannot finish worse than 10-8.  So far, three are gone.

WMU
OU
NIU

Three more are hanging right on the line.  Seven loss teams include Miami, EMU and Ball State.  EMU and Ball State play each other, so someone gets #8 and BG beats both in a tie-breaker and EMU plays UT 2 more times.  Miami has BG and UB still on its schedule (and Kent and Akron).  It is very hard to believe BG finishes with 8 losses and just as hard to think any of these teams don't finish with more than 8.

Which leaves us with Akron and CMU.

Akron is 4 games behind BG and I guarantee they are more focused on catching Kent and UT for a bye than catching BG for a bye.  Having said that, Akron plays BG twice coming home and would have a shot at getting the ball rolling.  They also have to go to Buffalo.  A win by BG Tuesday over Akron would give them 7 losses and BG a maximum of 7 losses and essentially ensure that BG will finish ahead of them.

CMU also has 6 losses.  BG wins the tiebreaker with them.  Essentially, any BG win and a CMU loss eliminates them.

So, I don't want to jinx it, but there you are.

Ours to lose, for sure.  One thing not to forget.  We were picked dead last. ALL of this is a blessing.  A home tourney game would have been considered a decent season when we started.  Enjoy the ride.

BG is now 84 in Kempom, their highest rating since the Jans year.  Kenpom loves blowouts and NIU still has a kenpom of 146.  The MAC remains the #9 ranked conference in Kenpom.  For reference, in the 2009 season when BG finished #1 seed it was the #19 ranked conference.